AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2006 > August > 14
Monday, August 14, 2006
Do you still believe?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
This is it.
No, this really is it.
Before every homestand or road trip in the past month or more, the Braves and their fans have said, this is it. The team needs to start picking off teams now, needs to start making its move to have any playoff hopes.
But this truly is it.
Whatever flickering playoffs hopes the Braves have, the seven-game trip that begins tonight vs. Washington is probably going to go a long way toward keeping them alive or quashing them, once and for all. If they go 3-4 or worse on this trip, it-s over, for all intents and purposes. Maybe even if they go 4-3.
Because with nine teams ahead of them in the wild-card standings and 46 games to play, the Braves need to have a torrid stretch run and hope that not one of those other teams has an equal run. They need to win both series against the Nats and Marlins, which would require at least five wins in seven games.
It starts tonight, with the first of four against a last-place Washington team that had some chairs flying and finger-pointing and general clubhouse tension after yesterday’s 3-1 loss to the Mets, when the Nats gave one away.
The Braves need to take three of four in this series, if not sweep.
You know there’s a sense of urgency when Chipper Jones — the same dude who downplayed the urgent call by John Smoltz when Smoltz said the Braves needed to win eight of 10 in their homestand before the All-Star break — when Chipper says the Braves need to try to win all seven games on this road trip.
There’s no downplaying anything anymore. No sitting back and saying, it’s only July. It’s mid-August now, and by mid-September it’ll be too late if the Braves don’t start a big run that includes some series sweeps.
They’re only 54-62, and even I, who disputed the notion that it would necessarily take 88-90 wins to win the wild card just because that’s what it required in the past, even I know it’ll surely take 85 wins or so, minimum.
That’s 31-15 the rest of the way, folks. And with this Braves starting rotation, I just don’t know if that’s possible.
It’ll take Hudson to repeat what he did the other night about seven more times, and for Smoltz to continue what he’s done for two months for another two months, and it’ll take one or two other starters stepping up and going deep into games, 6-8 innings to take pressure off the bullpen.
There is absolutely no indication that that’s about to happen. But stranger things have happened before. Not many, that I can think of off the top of my head. But I’m sure there have been. Right? Maybe?
Anyway…I’ll repeat what I said last week, only change the name from Kevin Berry to Lance Cormier: There is no way, no how, that Lance Cormier should be starting a crucial series opener for the Braves in August, when every win is of utmost importance.
But he is.
That’s why the Braves should add some starting depth this winter, at least one veteran to go with the starters they have returning and Mike Hampton coming off the DL. They need one more veteran guy that can be counted on to give them 30 or more starts and 180-200 innings. Because it won’t help to bolster the bullpen — the other absolute offseason must-do — if they don’t have a starting rotation that gives them a solid chance to win at least four nights out of five.
It all starts with starting pitching. The team’s success was built on it for a decade and a half, and its failure in recent postseasons and this regular season has come down to depleted starting pitching.
Injuries before playoff series that left the Braves with only one or two healthy starters on top of their game against teams that had two or three aces cranking out their best work, and injuries this season that left John Smoltz and Tim Hudson as the only starters who made every turn, with only Smoltz giving the Braves a real good chance to win most every time out.
Anyway, what’s the best thing about Cormier’s start Tuesday? That it’s coming against Pedro Astacio, whose 4-16 career record against the Braves is his worst against anyone, by far. In his past four starts against them, he’s 0-3 with a 10.71 ERA and 10 homers allowed in 19-1/3 innings.
Andruw Jones is 9-for-31 with five homers against the former Rockie/Ranger/bunch of others. Todd Pratt is 6-for-9 with a homer against him, which might not help Brian McCann’s batting-title hopes, because McCann needs to play almost every day to finish with enough plate appearances to qualify.
Before I go to catch a cab and head to the ballpark, I leave you with these statistics to savor before what could be a two-man home run derby this week at RFK: Alfonso Soriano has hit .389 with six homers and 12 RBIs in eight games against the Braves this season, and a ridiculous .388 (19-for-49) with nine homers and 20 RBIs in 11 games over the past two seasons against them.
Then there’s Andruw vs. the Nationals. He rakes against them, has for years, and he’s coming into this series with his power stroke in a groove. Against the Nats, Andruw has hit .316 with 18 doubles, 27 homers and 76 RBIs in his past 73 games, including 17-for-51 (.333) with seven homers and 18 RBIs in 14 games since last Aug. 31.
Strap in for Andruw vs. Alfonso and a make-or-break trip for the Braves.
Are you guys feeling any hope whatsoever for the Braves, or do you have more a sense of it’s-over-but-I’ll-tune-in-just-in-case?
Either way, should be an interesting series with a lot of fireworks. Consider this, just one last stat to mull over: Smoltz (3.41) is the only one of eight scheduled starting pitchers in this four-game series with an ERA under 4.60.
The last game, unless the Braves make a switch, is set to feature Kevin Barry (7.71 ERA) vs. Jason Bergman (7.62). Yikes! Now I’m not feeling very good about making that 8 p.m. flight I’ve got scheduled out of D.C. on Thursday.
