AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2006 > August > 08
Tuesday, August 8, 2006
Starting rotation is in shambles
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Since we’ve spent a good portion of this pock-marked Braves season castigating the bullpen, today it’s time to focus aim squarely upon the starting rotation.
Now, someone please pull the trigger and let both barrels blaze.
How bad have the starters been? With the obvious exception of John Smoltz, who’s been his usual dependable self, the starting pitching has been a disaster.
It really has been, especially when held up against Atlanta’s former standards for starting pitching. But by almost any standards, it’s been awful.
As I’ve said here before, if the rotation had done anything approaching the work expected of it entering the season, the bullpen deficiencies wouldn’t have been nearly as damaging to the Braves.
It’s a simple truth: When your starters are going 6-8 strong innings almost every night, with occasional complete games thrown in, like the Braves starters did for more than a decade, well, you can get by with a patchwork bullpen and less-than-overwhelming offense.
But when those starters are going three innings one night, five or six sloppy innings the next, and recording only four outs once every week or so … well, that’s when bullpen deficiencies becomes a huge, glaring problem.
And when you’re using 4-5 relievers many games, and blowing leads like the Braves did most of the season, it wears on everyone’s psyche. The whole house of cards becomes unstable. Before you know it, it’s cats living with dogs, real wrath-of-God stuff.
Anyway, the rotation. It’s the worst since before the Braves’ division-title run began.
Braves starters are 31-46 with a 4.90 ERA that ranks 11th in the 16-team NL. They’ve pitched the sixth-fewest innings among NL starters and allowed the sixth-most homers.
That’s bad enough by Brewers or Pirates standards, and absolutely horrendous by Braves standards.
While it’s inaccurate to compare based on ERAs from year-to-year (what with steroids, smaller ballparks, tightly-wound balls some seasons, changing strike zones, etc.), it’s fair to compare the Braves to the rest of their league.
And based on such comparison, it’s safe to say this is worst Braves rotation since the 1990 starters went 48-69 and ranked 11th in the 12-team NL with a 4.39 ERA. The NL average ERA was 3.88 that season, and the Cubs were worst at 4.48.
The NL average ERA this season is 4.22, which means the Braves starters (4.90) are higher above the league average this season than they were in 1990.
Ten pitchers have started at least one game for the Braves this season, and Smoltz (3.54) and journeyman Travis Smith (4.15 ERA in one start) are the only ones with ERAs below 4.48.
Smoltz (9-5) and Chuck James (4-3, thank you huge run support) are the only ones with winning records.
Remove Smoltz from the equation, and hold onto your seats before reading these totals: 22-41 with a 5.35 ERA. That’s the other nine starters, folks. Nurse, the sedatives, please.
Tim Hudson: 8-10, 5.22 ERA. If he’s not the biggest disappointment on the team this season, given what was expected of him, then tell me who is?
And please don’t say Reitsma, who most of us didn’t seriously expect to be a dominant closer. Besides, the man did just have elbow surgery, and that big, jagged scar he showed me yesterday on his elbow was all the proof I needed that he was legitimately, and seriously, injured.
Anyway, I don’t know who the Braves will have replace Horacio Ramirez if the MRI today comes back with bad results. Hell, right now they aren’t even sure who was going to do the fill-in start next week for John Thomson, after sending down Jason Shiell and his 9.75 ERA in three starts.
The just-arrived lefty reliever Wayne Franklin is a possibility (he’s a former starter). Cormier could be brought back for a start (Lance, not Rheal).
Bobby Cox said Kyle Davies probably was still two weeks away, three more rehab starts. I don’t think they’ll rush him just to fill in a week earlier.
Why the Braves didn’t put in a claim on Livan Hernandez, I don’t know. I would have.
Even before Horacio got hurt last night, they still needed some pitching depth to get through this season, and they have at least $2-3 mill in their original budget that hasn’t been spent. He went to Arizona, which has a better record _ and thus was lower on the claiming ladder _ than the Braves.
Anyway, I’ll let you know when I get to the park and hear something about Horacio. If Hudson and the Braves don’t win tonight and snap their five-game home losing skid, it’ll be a couple more shovels of dirt on their grave for even the most optimistic Braves fans.
Until the last homestand, I really thought the Braves had a better than 50-50 shot at winning the wild card. But now, in light of the last terrible homestand, the 3-3 road trip, and last night’s loss, coupled with Ramirez’s status … no. I’d be shocked if the Braves made it to the postseason this year.
The Dodgers are surging, the Reds made improvements, the West teams are playing hard trying to win their division, and even the Phillies are playing better ball than the Braves, whose rotation is basically in shambles, save for Mr. Smoltz.
Glad I could bring a ray of sunshine to your day. Pass the pie.
