AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2006 > July > 31
Monday, July 31, 2006
Boston-Andruw talks go nowhere, for now
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
So the non-waiver deadline passed with little movement from the Braves, other dumping the remaining $800,000 owed to Jorge Sosa on the Cardinals.
By the way, that basically covers the Braves’ part of the $1.6 million remaining on Danys Baez’s $4 mill salary. The Dodgers are paying the other part of what he’s owed.
And before I forget, I can clear up the Baez contract matter: While he will have only five-plus years of service time after this season, Baez will indeed be a free agent. It was written into the contract he signed with Tampa Bay, the deal that he’s fininishing this season (he’s making $4 mill this year in option year, then will be a free agent).
Anyway, the only interesting part of the non-waiver deadline day, from a Braves-watcher’s perspective, was the rumor about Andruw Jones to the Red Sox.
But it took only one phone call to find out the “negotiations” had been quick and gone nowhere, that the Braves listened when Theo Epstein called, but made it clear the Sox would have to give up a ton to get Jones.
Prepare for more such rumors regarding Jones this winter and, if he’s back next year, then the rumor mill will grind all season, unless the Braves sign him to an extension before then.
Several people asked what I thought of the Braves’ proposal to the Sox: A package of 22-year-old left-handed starter Jon Lester (an absolute stud), plus outfielder Coco Crisp and 22-year-old rookie reliever Craig Hansen.
While I’d have to think long and hard before trading a 29-year-old who led the majors in homers with 51 last season, on the way to his ninth consecutive Gold Glove, etc., I’d probably pull the trigger on that one if the Sox had agreed to it, and if I didn’t think I’d be able to re-sign Jones after the 2007 season.
With the way Andruw is starting to creak and ache, you just never know when the back or whatever else might start to go, and go quickly. So if you can get a lefty to build around for years (Lester), plus a 26-year-old center fielder who can “go get it” better than most and who hit .300 with 31 homers, 66 doubles and 140 RBIs the past two seasons with Clevland, plus a good young reliever….
I know Crisp has struggled some in his first season with Boston, but injuries and the first year at Fenway will do that.
I really believe that’s the hardest place for most players to get accustomed to, unless they hover in an alternate universe like Manny, or become fan favorites like Big Papi or Kevin Millar or Nomar, etc. Some players thrive in that incredible spotlight, but others take an adjustment period (see: Edgar).
Anyway, the deal didn’t happen. But it’s worth filing away mentally, the Boston interest and the Braves’ targeted players.
I know a lot of people wanted the Braves to snap their fingers and fix the rotation today, but it just isn’t that easy. I mean, how many quality starting pitchers were traded today?
And did you see what the Dodgers gave up for Maddux? Cesar Izturis. Yikes. That’s quite a price to pay for a 40-year-old with a sub-.500 record, even if he’s one of the greatest two pitchers of our generation and a fantastic guy. Perhaps the Dodgers believe they can re-sign him. I don’t know.
A few things, now that the month is over and the Braves’ postseason chances are in peril. The division title is obviously out of reach now; let’s accept that, if you hadn’t already. The Mets are a far better team, and not going to collapse.
The wild card is still within reach for only one reason: None of the teams has played well for a month, and even if eight or nine are ahead of the Braves, they’re all catchable. But the Reds did make some strong trade moves and shored up their bullpen. They could take off.
Do I think it’s likely for the Braves to win the wild card? No. But I’m also not one of those who believes you say, “We surrender,” and aim towards next year.
This isn’t the type of team, the way it’s constructed, that you could clearly make better for next season by dealing a bunch of veterans now. If Giles was having a great season, or his typical season, you could deal him and get plenty in return, but he’s not. So you have to wait until this winter and hope he finishes strong.
Hudson? I think right now he’s all but untradeable, he’s been so underwhelming for so long (much of last season, most of this one). Again, you need him to finish strong, and hope someone like the Yankees would bit on his remaining $32 mill he’ll be owed in 2007-09, including $6 mill next year before it goes to $13 mill each of the final two seasons.
But I really haven’t heard anything to lead me to believe the Braves want to trade him, either from people in their organization or other teams that might have been contacted. Nothing. Not saying that won’t change. It certainly could.
Chipper? Probably close to untradeable because of age and injuries, even though he just hit .500 with seven homers and 20 RBIs in July. But you know what? Braves don’t want to trade him anyway, and teams like the Red Sox haven’t been calling to ask about him like they have Andruw.
Smoltz? No way. $8 mill is a great deal for next season, and he’s the only starter on this team with an ERA under 4.50. He’s still an elite pitcher, the guy who heads up your rotation next year, the closest thing you have to a certainty in next year’s rotation, unless you get someone else before then.
Besides, while you or I may think Braves’ postseason chances are dim, they still are trying to win the wild card.
They aren’t going to quit yet, as much as some seem to want them to (I don’t get that losers’ mentality. It’s almost like some people would feel better if the Braves said, ‘Damn the 14 straight titles, we have very little chance of even making the postseason, we stink. We admit it. Who wants our players?’ If the Braves want to try to make a run for it, who are we to tell them, don’t bother? Did you see 103,000 paying customers at Turner Field this weekend? They didn’t buy tickets in advance to see a team aiming for next year. They didn’t buy them to see the Braves stink it up all weekend, either, but that’s beside the point).
Couple of quick statistical things from a crazy season and crazier July:
_ The Braves had a National League-worst 5.31 ERA in July, and a league-best (by 21 points) batting average of .311. They led the majors with 171 runs and 50 homers, and no one else in the NL had as many as 160 runs or 40 homers before Monday, the last day of the month (Braves were off Monday).
_ After hitting .382 with 77 runs and an absurd 24 homers during their seven-game winning streak July 8-18, the Braves hit .240 with 14 homers in their past 10 games (3-7).
_ After hitting at least one homer in 23 consecutive games, they’ve gone homerless in four of the past six and three in a row.
_ Braves pitchers have allowed a league-worst .294 average by left-handed batters this season, and their 62 homers allowed by lefty batters is five more than any other team.
_ Lefty batters are 9-for-21 with two homers against Jason Shiell, which isn’t too shocking, and 14-for-36 (.389) with two homers against lefty Chuck James, which sort of is.
_ Chipper hit .500 with 7 HRs, 20 RBIs in just 16 July games. He was 31-for-62 with four strikeouts, 11 walks, a .575 OBP and .984 slugging percentage in July. And one trip to the DL.
_ Three Braves struck out at least 20 times in July, including Andruw, who had a very strange hitting line for the month: He hit .250 with 24 strikeouts in just 80 at-bats, but still had seven homers and team-high 26 RBIs in 20 games.
Adam Laroche hit .341 (29-for-85) with seven doubles, seven homers, 19 RBIs, six walks and 22 strikeouts in July.
Wilson Betemit struck out 22 times in 60 at-bats in July, but still hit .317 with four homers and 13 RBIs before he was traded.
_ Talk about odd, check out this extreme dichotomy. Adam LaRoche’s day/night and home/road splits:
He has struck out 25 times in 88 at-bats (!) while batting .193 in day games, with four homers, nine RBIs and a .301 OBP and .398 slugging in 29 games.
In 69 night games, Laroche has hit .296-16-50 with 56 strikeouts in 233 at-bats, with a .584 slugging percentage (second on the team to Chipper’s .596).
Between the early-season error and his hitting stats at Turner Field, it’s understandable that some Atlanta fans might be less impressed than those who see him on the road. Check out this head-scratcher: LaRoche has hit 15 of his 20 homers on road, and hit .287 with a .366 OBP and .647 slugging on the road.
He’s hit .247-5-15 in 47 home games, with a .302 OBP and .409 slugging.
_ But he’s not the only Brave who plays better on the road. The team as a whole certainly does. The Braves are 22-28 at home, 26-28 on the road, and the disparity has been greater lately: They are 10-22 with a 5.44 ERA and 34 homers in their past 32 home games, and 20-15 with a 4.75 ERA and 63 homers in their past 35 road games.
_ Finally, read this one and shed a tear over the decline of Braves pitching from the Big 3 rotation days: 10 pitchers have made at least one start for the Braves this season, and only two have ERAs under 4.50: Travis Smith (4.15 ERA in one start) and John Smoltz (3.55).
To me, that’s remarkable. What a huge disappointment the rotation has been.
OK, let’s eat pie!
