AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2006 > July > 28
Friday, July 28, 2006
Betemit for Linebrink sounds about right
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The more I look at it, and the more people I talk to about it, the more my gut tells me this deal will happen before Monday’s trade deadline: Wilson Betemit to the Padres for reliever Scott Linebrink.
Frankly, he’s the only one of the available relievers that the Braves should accept in return for Betemit. Nothing else out there, as far as available bullpen help, is worth giving up Betemit for.
And since it does make so much sense for both teams, I think it will happen, regardless of the Padres’ posturing about not giving up Linebrink, etc.
I talked to John Schuerholz after yesterday’s game and he assured me that he’s “absolutely” continuing to try to fill needs — the bullpen, but also any other “piece” that would help the team. That’s another bat, if the Braves can get one, perhaps a Conine-type veteran with versatility, but definitely another utility infielder if they’re going to move Betemit.
Here’s why Linebrink makes so much sense for the Braves: Not only does he lead the NL with 21 “holds” — and if you don’t know what that is, Google it or trust me, it’s an important stat for setup men — but he’s one of those right-handers who’s actually far tougher against left-handed hitters than against right-handed ones.
This would add an experienced, proven reliever to the Braves’ bullpen, the best arm available, and would also fill their need to get another reliever besides McBride to face extremely tough left-handed hitters.
Check this out: Linebrink’s .232 opponents’ average this season includes an exceptional .188 (19-for-101) with nine walks and 23 K by lefty hitters. Ladies and dudes, that’s really, really strong. Right-handers are hitting .288 against him.
By comparison, Rockies lefty “specialist” Ray King has allowed an alarming .320 opponents’ average this season, including .244 by lefty hitters and .371 by righties. He’s done, or close to it, and the Braves would be insane to trade anything more than Jorge Sosa to get him. If they’ll take Sosa, good riddance.
Over the previous three seasons, Linebrink allowed a .218 average by lefties, .244 by righties, entered this season with a 3.00 ERA and 260 strikeouts in career 296-2/3 innings.
He’s the real deal, and, still only 29 (30 next month) without too much wear and tear. This year he’s 6-2 with a 3.72 ERA (the 1-for-7 saves isn’t too pertinent; he’s a setup man), and until he allowed six runs in his past two outings, his ERA was 2.70.
While those two outings earlier this week are a concern, it should be noted he had worked a lot of late. Those were his 11th and 12th appearances of the month, which included an innings apiece in BOTH ENDS of a July 1 doubleheader (why managers pitch a guy twice in a doubleheader in this day and age, when they’re not used to that, amazes me. These guys are not exactly Big Train Johnson).
Anyway, he allowed one run in nine innings over his previous nine appearances before those two games Sunday and Monday, and the Padres haven’t pitched him since (this being written before Friday games). They’re either protecting him because they’re ready to deal him, or because they’re concerned about his arm.
The Braves have been scouting Padres games, and they won’t make the trade unless they’re sure he’s healthy. If he is, I think they’ll do the deal, because I think the Padres want Betemit bad enough, and the Braves want an experienced setup guy bad enough.
It’s also worth noting, Padres manager Bruce Bochy, who likes Linbrink an awful lot, lobbied that a two-out double off right fielder Terrmel Sledge’s glove should have been an error in Monday’s game, and all three runs against Linebrink in that game should’ve been unearned.
As for a couple of other relievers out there, here’s why Braves shouldn’t or won’t do those deals:
— Scott Proctor: The Yankees have said he isn’t going to moved. So be it.
— The Cubs’ Bobby Howry: In 21 games since June 15, he’s allowed 23 hits and 12 earned runs in 17-2/3 innings, a 6.11 ERA and .333 opponents’ average. Yikes.
— And in retrospect, it’s easy to see why they didn’t bite on the Cubs’ Scott Williamson, who was traded to San Diego: Williamson, in his past 13 games, has allowed 19 hits (two homers) and 11 earned runs in 9-2/3 innings, a 9.28 ERA and .396 opponents’ average.
Much as we want to point out the flaws in the Braves’ bullpen, it’s time to point out that Chad Paronto and Tyler Yates have done quite well the past couple of months, better than most of the relievers being offered by other teams.
— Paronto’s 25 appearances since June 1: 2.53 ERA, 21-1/3 innings, 16 hits, 6 earned runs, .216 opponents’ average.
— Yates since June 3: 23 appearances, 2.14 ERA, 21 innings, 15 hits, 5 earned runs, .205 opponents’ average.
One last thing before I prepare for the big tilt tonight against the Mets and Pedro: Marcus Giles. People, the Braves second baseman has played for a while now just like the team had hoped he would all season. Quite well.
Giles has hit .270 with a .360 OBP in his past 61 games, with 10 doubles, six homers, 42 runs and six stolen bases. This after hitting .205 with a .306 OBP, one homer and six RBIs in his first 29 games.
It’s time for everyone to recognize that for more than two months, he’s been doing pretty much what the Braves wanted him to do entering the season, though they figured he’d hitter closer to his usual .300 or higher.
Still, .270 and .360 isn’t bad. And in his past 30 games, despite a thumb injury that slowed him a while, Giles has hit .279 with a .377 on-base percentage. He made a spectacular play ranging behind first base and throwing a guy out yesterday, before a throwing error later in the game that was his first error since June 5. To repeat: First error since June 5.
It’s no longer a dire necessity to get another leadoff hitter this season, unless they trade Giles, which they almost certainly won’t because his value isn’t as high now as it might be with another couple of strong months to prove he’s healthy and back to his old self. They can move him this winter.
I understand so many people’s desire to trade Giles instead of Betemit. But people, other teams like the Padres want the guy who can play several positions and who will make under $500,000 next season, rather than Giles, whose overall numbers this season are still way down, and who will make more than $5 mill next season. That’s just the way it is.
As I’ve said before, the other 29 teams don’t exist in order to help the Braves’ playoff chances. So they’re not going to make a trade unless they believe it helps their team get better, now or for the future, and in the case of the Padres and other teams besides the Yankees, get better while staying within their budget limits for the future.
Finally, with Tom Waits coming to our fair city for a highly anticipated show Tuesday at the Tabernacle ($60-65 tickets sold out instantly and are being scalped for more than $400 online), we offer the lyrics from his “San Diego Serenade” from the brilliant 1974 album “The Heart of Saturday Night”:
San Diego Serenade, by Tom Waits
I never saw the sunshine ‘til you turned out the light/I never saw my hometown until I stayed away too long/I never heard the melody, until I needed a song.
I never saw the white line, ‘til I was leaving you behind/ I never knew I needed you ‘til I was caught up in a bind/ I never spoke ‘I love you’ ‘til I cursed you in vain/I never felt my heartstrings until I nearly went insane.
I never saw the east coast ‘til I moved to the west/I never saw the moonlight until it shone off your breast/ I never saw your heart ‘til someone tried to steal, tried to steal it away/ I never saw your tears until they rolled down your face
I never saw the sunshine ‘til you turned out the light/I never saw my hometown until I stayed away too long/I never heard the melody, until I needed a song.
