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June 2006
Smoltz ultimatum a tall order
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
So if the Braves “must find a way” to go 8-2 on this 10-game homestand, as John Smoltz said Wednesday, then I’m not looking forward to talking to him should they lose a few. Because then what’s he going to say?
That’s the problem with ultimatums like that. You leave yourself little wiggle room. Chipper took a better tact when he simply said they need to play like they did on the road trip, like they did for most of the three games at Yankee Stadium, and that if they did that, wins would come and they’d beat the teams they’re supposed to beat. Because seriously, what are the chances of a team that’s 1-12 at home in June going 8-2 in this 10-game homestand that starts Friday night and carries through to the All-Star break? It might happen, but I don’t think anybody out there would bet on it.
Anyway, here we are, 10 games to go before the break, and the Braves really don’t have much longer to say there’s plenty of time left. They’ve got to start whittling down the lead and reeling in teams if they have any hope at all for the wild card, which they publicly insist they do. It can be done, but let’s be frank: it would take much better pitching than they’ve gotten recently from Tim Hudson, much better work than they’ve gotten all year from the back of the bullpen — actually, it’d take a trade or two to strengthen the bullpen, not just better work from the current group — and more production from the likes of Giles (everywhere), LaRoche (at home) and Francoeur (on the road).
But we’ve said that for weeks. Everyone knows it. Now, they’ve just got to do it.
Chipper has shown some recent signs of coming out of his funk. He hit a lot of balls well in New York. But the leadoff thing has festered for a half-season now, and it’s going to take a huge turnaround from Giles for him to avoid having the worst season of his career at the most inopportune time. I really don’t think it’s been pressure from hitting leadoff that’s been the primary factor in his woeful season; that’s been part of it, perhaps, but it’s more a combination of missing so much of spring training, getting in a rut early and pressing, and perhaps not being as physically strong as he’s been in the past. He’s just not driving the ball consistently like he used to, notwithstanding the homer he hit Wednesday at Yankee Stadium. He used to hit a ball like that every week, didn’t he?
If I had to guess which players from the current core group would be traded by the July 31 deadline or this winter, Giles would top it. I don’t see him back next year, because the Braves have middle-infield depth with Yunel Escobar, Tony Pena Jr. and Martin Prado, who was very impressive in his brief stint early and could be the second baseman next season. I don’t see Thomson or Sosa back, either, but that goes without saying. Either or both could also be gone by July 31, if they’re are any takers offering anything in return.
Here’s where it gets interesting. The Braves could afford to deal a veteran starting pitcher this winter, because they have Chuck James and Davies coming back next season at salaries under $1 million combined. Hampton is untradeable, so he’s going to be part of the rotation in 2007 (and he really does look good in rehab, by the way. He’s kept himself in excellent condition, admirable considering he could sit back, get fat for a year and know he’s going to get paid regardless; he hasn’t done that.).
Horacio has pitched so well since coming off DL, I’d think Braves will get real trade interest in him, but won’t want to deal him unless they can get a really attractive return. That could give them three lefties in next year’s rotation, but there’s nothing wrong with that whatsoever.
That would leave Smoltz at $8 million, and Hudson at $6 mill next year before his salary shoots to $13 mill each of the next two years in 2008-09. To me, that makes Hudson the more likely tradeable guy, particularly if he’d reel off a good run over the second half of the season. For all of Smoltz’s accomplishments and postseason prowess, fact is, he’s 39 and has had four elbow surgeries, and that limits the number of teams that would give up a lot to acquire him. Besides, he’s a bargain next year, and he’s the most recognizeable Brave, the pitching version of Dale Murphy, but not on his last legs like Dale was when traded away.
If Hudson finishes the year strong, Braves could move him in offseason to a team that would weigh his low salary next year and the two after that and decide he’s work $32 mill over three years. But if they don’t deal him before next season, all of a sudden you’re looking at guy owed $26 mill over two seasons and, barring a big improvement over his work since getting to Atlanta, he isn’t going to look so attractive at $13 mill per year for two years, plus a $12 mill option for 2010 and $1 mill buyout.
If they traded Hudson this winter, Braves would clear a lot of payroll for coming years, and then could decide based on next season how much Smoltz has left and whether he’d want to stay for yet another year at an affordable price. But the point is, only Hampton among pitchers would still have a multi-year commitment from Braves if Hudson were traded, and there’d be room for James, Davies and Ramirez all to develop into a potentially solid rotation core.
The Braves will almost certainly need to acquire another outfielder, unless they see enough of Diaz the rest of the way to believe he can be a regular. Langerhans, as great as he is with the glove, looks like a fourth outfielder and could be dealt. With Francoeur being a .300 or so OBP guy at one outfield corner (or CF in future), they can’t afford to not have a high-average, high-OBP guy at the other outfield corner, too.
They’re obviously set at catcher with McCann, and with Renteria at shortstop unless new ownership decides to cut payroll signigicantly, in which case teams would line up to get Renteria, given what he’s done this season and what Boston is paying on his contract. Again, Braves have middle-infield prospects who are just about ready, including Prado and Escobar.
I still don’t see any likelihood that Chipper gets traded, just because of the remaining money on the two guaranteed years of his contract in 2007-08 and what he’s meant to the franchise. And I don’t see them trading Andruw at least until next year’s trade deadline, and then only if they realize they can’t afford to re-sign him and someone offers such a huge package for Andruw that it makes up the difference in what they’d lose taking him out of the lineup for the last two months of the 2007 season. Of course, so much also would depend on whether they’re in the playoff race then; I’m assuming they will be.
OK, I’ve rambled. Just wanted to throw out some ideas that a few of us hacks have been discussing, the vibe I’m getting just from talking to some in the organization, including players and others.
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Braves still believe
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Until Ken Ray gave up a monstrous, game-tying home run to Jason Giambi on the first pitch he threw him a few minutes ago in the eighth inning, this Braves road trip was shaping up every bit as encouraging as the 0-6 homestand and 10-game losing streak had been discouraging for the Braves.
Even though Ray blew a save and and another potential Smoltz win at Yankee Stadium, the trip still had to be considered a positive for the Braves, who at least showed they aren’t ready to throw in the towel on the season. In winning two of three at Tampa Bay and playing tough the past two days at Yankee Stadium (a 5-2 win Tuesday, a 2-1 lead through seven innings today before Ray’s gopher ball), the Braves showed some mettle and gave their fans a reason to believe the second half of the season won’t be some sort of extended funeral procession over the death of the division title streak.
They aren’t going to win the divison — sorry, Braves Nation, the powerful Mets just aren’t going to fold to that degree, if they fold at all — but the Braves still believe they have a legit shot at winning the wild card.
Hey, it would take a wholly improbable run of stunning baseball for them to pass all the teams currently sitting ahead of them in the wild-card picture, but the Braves have made up bigger deficits in the second half than 9-10 games. While you and I and most everyone else knows it’s extremely unlikely, the Braves still believe it’s possible. And if they believe, then, hey, have at it, boys.
Hearing Chipper say before the game describe how there’s no two-team tandem in an NL division running away like the White Sox and Tigers in the AL Central, thus making the NL wild-card race a far more open race, it told me the Braves have talked about this stuff among themselves. Seeing the improved mood in the clubhouse the past week said the same thing, that they genuinely believe they are still in the postseason picture because of the wild-card opportunity, if not the division.
Trust me, everyone on that team and in the organization wouldn’t hesitate if you gave them two choices: Win the wild card and take your chances in the postseason, or call it a season and make moves designed to shed the team of some veteran payroll. Everyone connected with the team wants to go to the postseason now and keep their streak of postseason appearances alive, if not their division title run.
That’s just how they see it. I’m just telling you what I’m seeing and hearing, and it’s competitive guys who are playing for the here and now, not thinking about two years down the line.
However, Chipper also said something else both telling and encouraging. He said the Braves know they need to play the second half hard, do everything they can to get in the postseason, and if they don’t make it, then at least make sure they take momentum and a positive attitude forward to next spring by finishing the season out with hard work and not showing a loser’s mentality.
Bobby Cox hasn’t given up. His players haven’t. And that leads me to the last point: The front office needs to show it hasn’t given up. Not say it, show it.
The Braves have several million bucks set aside from their failed pursuit of a closer last winter. It would send a terrible signal to their players if they don’t make a signficant move or three in the next couple of weeks to try to shore up a couple of weaknesses.
They could get a big spark by somehow acquiring a potent leadoff hitter for the second half. They could use another veteran reliever or two.
The work of young lefties Chuck James and Horacio Ramirez this week was a huge boost for the Braves’ confidence, and Smoltz reminded everyone Wednesday that he’s still an elite pitcher with seven innings of one-run ball in another potential win the bullpen blew for him.
If Tim Hudson could put together another run like he did late last season — his struggles are unpredictable and maddening — the Braves would have a potentially potent rotation the rest of the way, with either John Thomson or Kyle Davies (when he’s back in late July or August) filling it out.
It’s late, and it’s a long shot. But it’s not too late. Not yet. And if the Braves believe, then so should the front office, and by showing it with actions instead of words.
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The swagger’s gone
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The great Dorothy Parker used to hold court with other poets and writers at the famed “Algonquin Round Table” at the Algonquin Hotel in New York.
It was Dorothy _ not William Shakespeare, as some believe _ who uttered the line, “What fresh hell is this?”
She could have been talking about this Braves season, as the once-proud jewel of NL franchises goes from town to town, getting hammered and reading reports in every city of how the mighty have fallen.
It’s interesting to see it from this perspective. The adoring crowds (or E-bay autograph seekers) still form a gauntlet outside the Braves bus when it arrives at hotels and ballparks, and there are still hundreds, if not thousands, of Braves cap and T-shirt wearing fans in every road park. But it’s not the same. When you’re 4-20 in a month, the swagger can’t be the same, and it’s not with this team.
It feels a little _ just a little _ like it does watching my favorite NBA team, the Boston Celtics, when they come to Atlanta. The once-proud C’s are a joke to many younger fans who are only vaguely aware they were once the premier franchise in hoops, if not all of sports.
Now, I’m not AT ALL SUGGESTING THIS IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO THE BRAVES, so don’t start with me on that. Don’t write a post saying I’m suggesting it. If you do, well, it has no relation to what I’m saying. All I’m saying is that right now, this month, the Braves are a bit sad to watch. That’s all. You want to take it farther, feel free, but I’m not. Personally, I think they’ll be a contender for the NL East again next year. Not the favorite, though, not unless the Mets don’t keep Glavine and don’t have him and Pedro healthy atop their rotation. The lineup will be lethal again, that’s a given.
Anyway, I’m not going to get into a bunch of stats or try to break down the team’s flaws or needs today. Too many of you chiming in with “what’s the point of going over this” and “this blog is dead” comments in recent days for me to spend a lot of time trying to come up with a bunch of numbers or suggestions on what needs to be done. Feel free to do so yourselves, as always.
On a brighter note, the Atlanta concert scene never has a year as bad as the Braves are having. Not until you live or travel to other cities and try to find good bands to see and good shows to attend do you realize just how good we music fans have it in Atlanta. OUTSTANDING music city, especially if you include the hip Athens scene in the picture.
Ryan Adams in July and Flaming Lips in September, just two more recent additions to a concert lineup that sure blows away what the Braves are running out there lately.
Oh, by the way: Remind me to let you know if I find out how last night’s postgame night on the town went for Chipper and Frenchy, who went out with “The Captain” _ aka King of New York _ Derek Jeter on his 32nd birthday last night. Now that’s living large.
Later
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The Bronx and random thoughts
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The first time the Braves played the Yankees in the postseason was Game 1 of the 1957 World Series at Yankee Stadium, when the winning pitcher was Whitey Ford and the loser was Warren Spahn. The Braves (Milwaukee version) won that Series 4-3.
The last time the two teams met in the postseason was Game 4 of the 1999 World Series at Yankee Stadium, when the winning pitcher was Roger Clemens and the loser was John Smoltz. The Yankees swept that series, after winning the last four games in the six-game 1996 World Series.
Eight straight World Series wins against the Braves for the Evil Empire, which as I correct this graph is kicking Tim Hudson’s tail tonight. Giambi already has two homers and the Yankees had a 5-0 lead after two innings.
Don’t know why I was bringing up the Yanks-Braves postseason stuff, other than it’s pretty cool to look at the World Series history of matchups between these franchises, with decisions going to pitchers the likes of Larsen, Berdette, Turley, Cone, Clemens, Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz … 24 games, 15 Yankees wins for those keeping score at home, including eight of 10 going to the Yanks since the Braves moved to Atlanta.
The Braves won the first two games of the 1996 World Series, and the Yankees have won eight World Series games in a row against them since.
Since I’ll go out on a limb and say they’re not going to be meeting in the World Series this October, the only time these teams are going to play games that matter anytime soon is the next three days at Yankee Stadium. Games that matter being a relative term. They certainly matter to the Yankees, locked in another fierce AL East race with the Red Sox and also the Blue Jays making folks uneasy.
And they matter to the Braves, who insist they haven’t given up their goal of a postseason berth, even if most fans and realistic observers know it’d take a tremendous and improbable turnaround for the Braves to get back in the race.
For now, they can feel good about what happened over the weekend at Tampa Bay, where the Braves took two of three for their first series win in June — the brain becomes numb amid all the recent losing, but think about how staggering that is, that the Braves were 3-19 in June before the Devil Rays series — and saw the emergence of a legitimate potential home-grown newcomer to step into their rich pitching tradition.
Chuck James is smallish (generously listed at 6 feet, looks to be about 5-10), but he’s got something. Got a few things, actually. Very tough, unbending, not awed, and a delivery that makes it hard for hitters to pick up his only-average-velocity fastball. That and a deadly change-up are already drawing comparisons to another physically underwhelming lefty, name of Glavine.
Sure, it’s silly to predict this soon that he’ll have anything approaching the career success of Glavine, who’s going to win 300 games and go to the Hall of Fame. But James has the makings for a whole lot of success, and he’s only 24.
He’s exactly what the Braves needed Sunday, and it just makes you wonder where they might be if he’d been in the rotation from the beginning of the season. No sense beating yourselves up wondering … but let’s do anyway.
Imagine if the Braves had been able to trade John Thomson at the end of spring training, before he got hurt literally the week he would have been likely dealt for Pittsburgh’s Craig Wilson or someone else. Of course, they still had a woefully underperforming Jorge Sosa and Horacio Ramirez and Kyle Davies on the way to long stints on the DL.
But for the Braves, it would’ve been nice to have James going deep into games every five days since opening week, helping to feed into the competitive one-up mentality of Hudson and Smoltz.
Oh, well, he’s there now. And Sosa is in the bullpen, where he’s actually pitched quite well in his first two appearances as the closer du jour. Maybe he’s a lot better suited to going out and letting it all hang out for an inning or two, instead of thinking so much or trying to outsmart hitters, or whatever the he** he was doing that made him so dreadful in the majority of his starts this season.
Is it too late? It sure seems so. They’re barely withing shouting distance of the wild card, considering the number of teams standing between the Braves and wild card leader Cincinnati (they are still the wild card leader, right?)
But if the Braves want to believe, then hey, let them have at it. I do know from the tone of e-mails, call-in shows and bloggers that the Braves will sure have to reel off a nice little run before they’ll be able to get many people back on their bandwagon.
They still have so many areas that need help, and several recent trade discussions have fallen through. For instance, Schuerholz was working on a deal the other day, which was the reason he was late to his book signing at Turner Field. The deal fell through at the last minute, from what I’m told. Don’t know which one it was, but I know they’ve had their antennae up and had discussions for everybody from reliever Salomon Torres to outfielders Carlos Lee (no longer available, it appears), Kevin Mench and speedy leadoff man Dave Roberts, and the aforementioned Wilson.
Will anything get done? Probably a small trade or two for relief help, but I don’t know if the Braves will be able or willing to pull off the kind of big moves they need to really make a postseason run.
What they need right now, first and foremost, is for Hudson and Smoltz to start producing the kind of quality starts that the two rotation leaders are expected to produce, to go 7-8 innings and allow 2-3 runs tops, not these early exits or three-walk innings (Hudson), the kind of starts that might’ve been acceptable in the first month of the season, but not now. And they need for Horacio Ramirez to keep doing what he’s done in all but one start since returning from the DL, and for James to show Sunday wasn’t a fluke and that he’s ready to make an impact.
They need for Giles to hit close to .300 with an OBP close to .375 the rest of the way, and for Renteria to get back to what he was doing until the last week’s mini-slump. They need Andruw to keep doing what he’s been doing the last few weeks and avoid any more of the droughts he had earlier.
They definitely need Chipper to revert to something resembling the Chipper that once carried this team for long stretches, and they need for Francoeur to hit half as well against right-handers and on the road as he does against lefties and at home, and LaRoche to pick it up now that he’s playing almost every day, and for Diaz to keep playing as if he’s actually a .350 hitter (and maybe he is; I have a feeling we’re going to find out).
They need a lot of things, including a series win against the Yankees.
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Too many L’s in bullpen
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
As we’ve learned during this excruciating Braves season, they can’t spell “bullpen” without multiple L’s — literally and figuratively.
But as I began trying to quantify just how bad these relievers have been lately — they were a sieve in the early season, somewhat recovered for a while, now are worse than ever — I stumbled upon a rather startling set of numbers:
In Chad Paronto’s last 14 appearances he’s allowed 11 hits, 8 earned runs, 2 homers and 6 walks … and the Braves are 0-14. Yes, 0-14.
In Mike Remlinger’s last 10 appearances he’s 0-2 with a blown save, 11 hits, 5 earned runs and 5 walks allowed in 6-2/3 innings … and the Braves are 0-10. Yes, 0-10.
In Macay McBride’s 13 June appearances he’s allowed 6 hits, 6 earned runs and 10 walks (yikes) in 7 2/3 innings … and the Braves are 0-13. Yes, 0-13.
In Ken Ray’s last five appearances he’s allowed multiple baserunners in four … and the Braves are 0-5. Yes, 0-5.
And we haven’t even mentioned the name of a certain Canadian who’s on the DL.
Dial M for Murder. Dial Braves bullpen for Defeat.
Anyway, no need to keep rehashing the atrocities and crimes against baseball committed by Atlanta’s bullpen …
Oh, but why not? Just a couple other stats before moving on:
This is one you won’t see anywhere else. You’ll see the Braves’ overall staff ERA of 4.84, the second-worst in the NL, and their league-worst bullpen ERA (5.32), and their ungodly 15 blown saves in 30 opportunities, and perhaps it’ll be pointed out by some observers that the bullpen has only 24 more strikeouts (145) than walks (121).
But how about this one: In close and late situations (basically the seventh inning or later in tied or one-run games), Braves pitchers have allowed an almost incomprehensible .307 average and .395 on-base percentage. People, that’s simply outrageous. There is no way a team can contend for anything but cannon fodder with those figures.
The pathetic Royals (.300) and Pirates (.294) are the only other major league teams with a close-and-late opponents’ average above .285. The Tigers? They’re at .206 and .290 OBP, more than 100 points below the Braves in each category. The Mets? .231 and .316.
So many individuals have pitched in to help burn this season to the ground before the foundation was even completed. There’s the staggeringly underperforming Jorge Sosa — nice of you to come to training camp 20 pounds overweight after the Braves decided to count on you — and Marcus Giles, who couldn’t have picked a worse time to have his worst season.
There’s Chipper Jones, who has the third-worst fielding percentage by a major league third baseman and has been such a non-factor in the important No. 3 spot in the batting order most nights that it’s easy to forget the 1999 MVP had eight consecutive 100-RBI seasons through 2003. In his past 24 games, he’s hit .216 (19-for-88) with three homers, 10 RBIs and 25 strikeouts (unheard of for Chipper most of his career).
There’s the “platoon” work of Brian Jordan, who was supposed to be the right-handed hitting 1B complement — hey, that’s what the Braves projected, not me — to replace Julio Franco. Uh, well, Jordan was 7-for-44 (.159) against lefties before returning to the disabled list for the 13th time in his career and sixth time since 2002. He was also a team-worst 3-for-20 with runners in scoring position, not exactly the image of the clutch-hitting veteran the Braves tried to have us conjure.
Oh, it’s bad. It’s really, really bad.
They don’t have a consistent home-run threat — Andruw will hit 40 or more, but at any given time will go three weeks without a homer, and Francoeur will hit 25-35, but do it while batting barely .200 on the road and having an on-base percentage well below .300 overall and currently at .225 — .225!!! — on the road. At what price home runs?
And despite all that and more — John Thomson pitches just well enough to draw trade interest, but is just injury-prone enough to quash trades not once but twice; Langerhans has taken a big step back this year and doesn’t appear capable of playing nicked up — it all comes back to the bullpen, in my opinion.
Here’s what I mean: Early on in the season, when the Braves were leading the NL in most offensive categories (look it up, I’m not kidding, they were) they kept losing one-run games when the bullpen would choke on a lead. The hitters would say the politically correct, “It’ll all work out, I’m sure later on they’ll pick us up when we’re not hitting.” But it kept happening. And happening.
Eventually, I got the feeling that the continued wasting of leads wore down the hitters mentally. They stand around in the field now with a look of “Oh, God, what else can go wrong?” They don’t even resemble the swaggering Braves of the past.
Even Chipper doesn’t have any of the cocksure demeanor that made him such a target for road crowds. At this point, will they even bother chanting “Lar-ry, Lar-ry” at Shea? Probably, but only because they’re at a filthy ballpark in Queens. Chipper, where has the Kelly Leak in you gone? Is it forever lost?
John Schuerholz made a huge, huge mistake with the construction of this team. Actually, he’s made it a few years in a row, but only this year has it undermined their entire season and turned the Braves into a laughingstock. The past couple of years, he got away with it because the Braves won the division anyway.
His mistake: For more than a dozen years, the Braves had one of the best, if not THE best, starting rotations in baseball. And all those years, or most of them, they did their bullpen on the cheap with scrap parts that somehow came together just enough, and a few years far more than just enough, to serve their purpose. All it took in those years where the Braves would get 7-8 innings out of their esteemed and legendary starters four out of five days, all it took from the bullpen was a couple of decent setup guys and a serviceable closer.
They didn’t have to have six good bullpen arms, because they didn’t have to get 4-5 innings out of their bullpen two or three times a week. Now, when they need six good bullpen arms, something like we just saw from Toronto, the Braves have, well, maybe one or two.
This year, when Sosa has been woeful and Thomson dinged up, when Davies ripped his groin apart and Horacio sprained a knee in his first start and missed nearly two months, when rookie relievers Joey Devine and Blaine Boyer both got hurt early and John Foster never threw a pitch, this year the Braves have had to rely on journeyman like Paronto, Yates, Moylan, Ray, etc.
Not to mention Reitsma, who struggled mightily as the closer more often than not last season, but still, somehow, the Braves decided they could afford not to overspend on a Todd Jones or Bob Wickman or Kyle Farnsworth last winter, because they had Reitsma to fall back on. (The tear is coming down Braves fan’s eye now, like the Native American in the don’t litter commercials of my youth).
The mistake was thinking they could get by once again with a bargain-basement bullpen, a ‘pen with only two relievers making more than $500,000 and neither of them (Remlinger and Reitsma) coming off a season that should’ve given the Braves the confidence to rely heavily on them.
Oh, well. Live and learn. The season’s toast, and the Braves have a worse record than the Devil Rays in late June.
Come on, kids, who wants to go to Tooner Field!!
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Chipper isn’t cutting it
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Chipper Jones used to be one of the best players in the National League. He isn’t right now.
The Braves’ June swoon has been so severe that most of the blame has rightfully been placed elsewhere. But there is no question about the decline of the Braves third baseman, who is looking like a very old 34 at the moment.
Jones hurt his knee and ankle the first weekend of the season in San Francisco. He returned quickly, but has never regained his form.
The switch-hitter has been bothered by injuries for three straight seasons. They have obviously taken a toll.
Jones is hitting .280 with a .375 on-base percentage, but has just seven homers and 35 RBI. During the 0-5 homestand he is 2-for-12 and looked awful at the plate Wednesday night in the 6-3 loss to Toronto that stretched the Braves’ losing streak to nine games.
Defensively, Jones has also been in a slump. He had played well at third base since returning from the outfield, but not this year.
The Braves needed a big year from Chipper more than ever this season. They aren’t getting it.
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Braves now stuck with Sosa
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The Braves should have traded Jorge Sosa when he had some value. He sure doesn’t have much now.
Sosa escaped his 10th loss Tuesday night, but that couldn’t hide his continued struggles.
The right-hander has allowed 17 homers after giving up two more against Toronto. Seven of the home runs have come in his four June starts. He has a 5.40 ERA to go with his 1-9 record.
Sosa was 13-3 last season, but that was obviously a fluke. Unfortunately, another major league team wasn’t fooled.
The Braves could move Sosa to the bullpen. But would that help anything? Not the way he’s pitching.
From pitch to pitch and inning to inning, you don’t know what you’ll get from Sosa. Except you know that there will be homers in there somewhere.
John Thomson, once he recovers from his blister, may be able to help the Braves in the bullpen. It is doubtful that Sosa can now.
The only good news for the Braves is that Chuck James may be in the rotation soon, possibly as early as this weekend.
The rookie left-hander has to be an improvement over what the Braves have been getting from the backend of the rotation.
Smoltz trade rumors a crock
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
We in the media can be the most self-important group of people imaginable. All of us.
But the self-perceived levels to which we can raise ourselves never ceases to amaze me.
Case in point: The sudden John Smoltz trade “rumors.”
Let’s be clear from the top. These rumors have come from absolutely no one within the Braves organization. Not even the media members who started these rumors, and those who’ve stoked them for two days in the way only media members can, have ever suggested that they heard anything from anyone connected with the Braves that the team has any intention, any notion, any thought whatsoever of trading Smoltz. Nothing.
This is entirely a case of, since the Braves have been horrible for 20 games (3-17) and realistically fallen out of the division race, well, then, they might start trading veterans. That’s it. So from there, the next step is to name the most visible, recognized, accomplished and highly paid members of the team, and start saying “what if.”
And since John was involved in one of these rather famous summer trades many years ago, the one that brought him from Detroit for aging veteran pitcher Doyle Alexander, and since John is now the aging veteran, and just as importantly, since John has never shied from a camera or microphone or reporter’s question — and for that, we are grateful: thank you, John — the TV folks just asked him point-blank. And John, as competitive as any athlete I’ve ever covered and as upset by all this losing as anyone, answered with a frustrated and reasonable reply.
They asked him “if” the Braves approached him about a trade, would he consider dropping his no-trade protection afforded him as a “10-and-5” player (10 years in majors, five with current team) in order to go somewhere like, oh, Detroit, where he’s from. What’s he supposed to say, when asked this in the middle of yet another loss? I mean, he could’ve said, “Listen, I don’t want to talk about trade rumors or anything else right now, I just want to focus on trying to get this turned around.” But the frustrations, etc., I’m sure led him to reply with something along the lines of, “Sure, I’d listen.”
OK, that’s it. That’s the entire basis of these rumors. Again, stemming from nothing more than the ever-fertile mind of one media member. Not from a Braves executive, not from another team that said the Braves have dangled Smoltz. Simply from the mind of the person asking the question. Which is fine, if it ended there. But of course it never does.
From that one interview, the words get twisted, strengthened, molded into much stronger messages by other media outlets. Then fans, understandably upset at the lousy month the Braves are having and the dismal postseason chances, hear it and run with it. All of a sudden, people are having serious on-air debates over whether Smoltz should be traded and what the Braves could get for him.
Again, nevermind that this hasn’t been discussed by the Braves (I got that from a very good source Monday) and they have no intention of trading John for a couple of huge reasons. Nevermind that it makes little sense to trade him, or to have a fire sale or start a rebuilding project.
Ladies and gents, teams generally have fire sales when they’re losing tons of money in bad ballparks, or when they have decrepit lineups that need to be blown up and rebuilt.
The Braves aren’t the Padres at old Jack Murphy Stadium, unable for years to get a new ballpark and willing to trade off Gary Sheffield and others once they made too much money. They aren’t the Marlins, drawing 5,000 fans in a football stadium with a bad lease, unable to get a new ballpark built or drum up more interest despite winning two World Series.
The Braves are about to be sold to an ownership group that, despite what so many fans insist — again based on nothing more than feelings and hearsay — have given no indication whatsoever that they plan to reduce payroll, much less strip it down to anything remotely similar to Florida’s.
Much as some have suggested, there are no signs yet of a fan “boycott” (righteous cause, brothers — let’s boycott the Braves, who have the temerity to not win more than one World Series while going to the last 14 postseasons) and the Braves aren’t losing money.
Finally, getting back to Smoltz in particular. I’m not going to get into the particulars of why the Braves aren’t likely to trade Chipper (he’s a Braves icon, his production’s down, he’s owed $11 mill each of the next two seasons guaranteed, can veto any trade, and the New York teams have third basemen, just to name a few reasons it won’t happen) or trade Andruw (he’s going to win a ninth consecutive gold glove, hit 40-45 homers, drive in over 100, led the majors in homers last season, and is going to make a reasonable $13.5 mill next season, and the Braves could wait to trade him this winter or next summer if they don’t think they can afford to re-sign him).
I’ll just stick to Smoltz (actually, I just named a lot of the particulars on why they probably won’t trade the Joneses. Oh, well.) Anyway, back to Smoltz: People, he’s not Doyle Alexander on a crappy team that needs to be rebuilt.
Smoltz, despite his 4-5 record, is still a very good pitcher, a top-of-the-rotation pitcher who has a solid 3.78 ERA, .251 opponents’ average, 88 strikeouts with 25 walks in 102-1/3 innings, and has no arm problems for the first time in a long time. He has worked six or more innings in 11 straight starts, including seven or more in eight of those 11. After struggling in his first two starts on the West Coast this season, Smoltz has a 3.39 ERA in his past 13 starts. The Braves have scored two runs or fewer in EIGHT of those 13 starts. Eight. And the bullpen has blown potential wins in at least five. (Have we mentioned the Braves have the worst bullpen in the NL? Oh, we have. Good.)
My point is, he’s still a horse, still a pitcher hitters hate to face, and still gives the Braves their best chance to win. And he’s making ONLY $8 MILLION NEXT SEASON.
Let’s reiterate that, since I’ve seen everything from $12 mill to $15 mill quoted as his salary next season: The Braves have a club option for $8 million in 2007. Do you know how relatively paltry that salary is for a pitcher of Smoltz’s ilk? I mean, you can’t get a Matt Clement for that. Hell, you can barely get Jaret Wright.
The only reason the salary is that low is because Smoltz, who wanted badly to stay with the Braves and wanted badly to return to starting, agreed to rework his contract a couple years ago, dropping a $100,000 per start clause on top of his $11 mill salary back then, and agreeing to an extension at a relatively bargain-basement price. He knew that with his four elbow surgeries, the Braves were taking somewhat of a risk extending his deal. The man has been very fair with the team.
Anyway, $8 mill next season. Since returning to the rotation last year, Smoltz is 18-12 with a very solid 3.28 ERA in 48 starts, and a team-high 332 innings in that stretch.
And here’s a remarkable stat: The Braves have scored two runs or fewer while he’s been in the game in 24 of those 48 starts. HALF OF THEM. If they score, say, four in half of those 24, he’s got another 6-7 wins, easily. But I know that’s playing with numbers. I’m just pointing out, two runs or fewer in 24 of 48 starts is awful luck.
The Braves expect Mike Hampton to be back strong next year, and so far in his rehab he looks very good. He had elbow and knee surgeries, and he’s moving better than he has in years. He’s still in his prime years, or should be, and even though he’s gotten hurt a lot, Braves have reason to believe he can still be solid. He’s also untradeable, completely, with that huge contract.
So they have Smoltz, Tim Hudson and Hampton back at top of their rotation next year, with Kyle Davies and perhaps Horacio Ramirez or Chuck James. Seriously, that’s the makings of a formidable rotation.
And they have Francoeur, McCann, Renteria, Chipper, Andruw at five of eight positions.
So why would they blow this up? Makes no sense. They used 18 rookies last year, and won a division in what other teams would consider a rebuilding year. No team in this situation would now blow this up and start over.
Once more: Smoltz makes $8 mill next year. Mike Mussina of the Yankees is making $19 mill this year. He’s 21-11 with a 3.95 ERA, .264 opponents’ average, 280 innings, and more than six support runs per nine innings over the past two seasons (Smoltz, again: 18-12 with a 3.28 ERA, .245 opponents average and 332 innings in that stretch, with 4.7 support runs per nine innings).
Boston’s Clement is making $9.8 mill this year. He’s 18-11 with a 5.09 ERA and .268 opponents’ average in 256 innings since start of 2005 season, with 6.7 support runs.
Tom Glavine, already a 10-game winner this year, is making about $10 mill this year and is 23-15 with a 3.52 ERA and .269 opponents’ average in 307 innings over two seasons, with 4.9 support runs per nine innings).
Texas’ Kevin Millwood, making $7.8 mill this year and more next, is 17-14 with a 3.38 ERA and .261 opponents’ average in 285 innings over two seasons, with 4.5 support runs per nine innings.
Toronto’s A.J. Burnett, who’s making more than $10 mill per year over four seasons, is 12-13 with a 3.58 ERA in 219 innings over two seasons.
Just trying to offer some perspective. My point: Smoltz is very affordable, the kind of guy the Braves would be dying to get next season if they are contending and needed a starter, and they have him for $8 mill. He doesn’t want to be traded, they don’t want to trade him. He was asked a hypothetical question and answered that he’d listen. That’s all.
But if the Braves don’t approach him about a trade, which I’m told they have no intention of doing, then why is it even relevent? He’s certainly not going to ask to be traded (or if he did, it’d shock me, given what he’s said about wanting to remain a Brave. And if he ever did ask for a trade, don’t think we wouldn’t hear about it from the Braves, who’d make it clear it wasn’t their idea to deal him).
OK, that’s it. Just thought I’d try to bring some level-headed perspective to this “rumor” mill. From one self-important journalist to all of you out there making much too much out of casual media speculation.
Last Place: What is first thing to do?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The Braves are alone in the NL East cellar. Dejected and devastated, the team is trying to figure a strategy. What should they do as early as today? Should someone be fired? Traded?
Permalink | Comments (361) | Categories: Game Night
1991: The day Atlanta moved into first
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
AJC
Braves cheer on Aug. 28, 1991, the night their team moved into sole possession of first in the NL West.
Would you like a little irony with your coffee this morning?
Hangdog Braves fans probably don’t need any reminders of the glory days of 1991, when the Braves rode pennant fever and went from WORST to FIRST.
This morning, Atlanta finds itself in last place in the National League East.
“This is the lowest point since 1990 that I can remember,” pitcher John Smoltz said Sunday after a 10-7 loss to the Boston Red Sox. The Braves’ seven-game losing streak is their longest since 1990.
But let’s return to a time when things were looking up.
On Aug. 28, 1991, the Braves — a franchise with a brutal history — took sole possession of first place in their division, the NL West.
What else was going on that week? The U.S.S.R. was unraveling, QB Billy Joe Tolliver had joined the Flacons, C&S/Sovran still existed and “I’ll Fly Away” and “Brooklyn Bridge” were about to roll out on television. Unleaded gasoline was going for $1.15 per galloon.
But in Atlanta’s 1991, all the talk was about the Braves. The town was going crazy and attendance had soared.
Fourteen division titles later, here’s the irony.
Guess who the Braves beat on Aug. 28, 1991, to take first place after the Dodgers lost later that night?
The New York Mets.
Guess who pitched for Atlanta that night?
Tom Glavine.
Flash forward to June 18, 2006.
Guess who are leading Atlanta by 14 games?
Tom Glavine and the New York Mets.
Move now to make Wild Card
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Seven-and-half games behind on June 16. On the one hand, the Braves have overcome greater deficits at later dates in previous seasons.
On the other hand — assuming some of you haven’t chewed off the other hand and thrown it at the TV while watching the Braves during this 3-14 stretch — that’s 7-1/2 games out of the WILD CARD, rather than first place in the division. (Yes, put me in that overcrowded bandwagon of folks who believe the Braves can’t catch the Mets).
As many fans and even some Braves players have pointed out in recent seasons, the team might be better off winning the wild card rather than the division anyway, given that the wild-card winner is forced to play its best baseball right down to the wire, instead of putting things on cruise control in September the way the Braves have done so many times after wrapping up the division title early.
The problem with being 7-1/2 games behind wild-card leader Cincinnati is that, at last count, at least seven other teams were closer to the Reds (it’s late, I’ve gotta get to the ballpark, and I don’t have time to count them again).
When you have to overcome a multitide of teams, rather than catch one, well, it does bring many other factors into the equation, including the obvious need for all of those others to play lesser ball than you the rest of the way.
That’s asking a lot, considering how the Braves have stumbled. Consider this: The Braves went 15-5 with 4.19 ERA, .288 average and 126 runs scored from May 7-28, but they are 3-14 with 5.96 ERA, .257 average and 65 runs scored in 17 games since May 29. Yikes!
Just FYI, during that stretch the Mets are 12-4, the Marlins are 11-4, the Phillies 8-9, and Nationals 9-8.
Having said all that, the Braves can win the wild card, but only if they make two or three significant personnel moves — not minor moves, significant ones — and get improved performance from virtually every key contributor on the roster, save for Edgar Renteria and Brian McCann, who deserve to make the All-Star team.
Here’s a couple of suggestions I made late last night on previous blog, just to give you some idea of the level of significance I’m talking about with 2-3 trades:
1 — Get Dontrelle Willis (Yes, even if they have to give up Salty and a middle infielder or pitching prospect to get him). Problem is, the better the Marlins play, the less inclined they might be to trade him, at least not until right at the trade deadline and only if blown away in a proposal.
But if the Braves could land him, he’s the guy who could take the baton from Smoltz after next season (I’m assuming Braves will exercise $8 mill option on Smoltz for 2007) and join Tim Hudson as co-aces for a few years (again, assuming Braves could sign Willis to an extension). Then you fill out a solid rotation with the likes of Chuck James, Kyle Davies, or other prospects, and, oh yeah, hope to get a couple of solid seasons out of Mike Hampton.
2 — Get Carl Crawford from Tampa Bay.
He’s only in the second year of a very reasonable four-year, $15.25 mill contract with two club option years that could extend the deal to 2010. If Braves could get him, he’d be a tremendous help not just immediately, but for for two more seasons, at least. He becomes your impact left fielder and hits atop the order, and that’s why I think it’s worth giving up two top prospects to get him, maybe one of the middle infielders (Escobar or Andrus or one of the younger ones even) and a young pitcher or pitching prospect.
Crawford is a .290 career hitter, hit .301 last year, led AL in triples past two seasons (a whopping 34 over two seasons), had 160 steals the past three seasons … in other words, he’s exactly what Braves lack, a serious threat to steal and a guy who, even with a low OBP, could still hit leadoff rest of this season because he can be at second or third on any at-bat, via an extra-base hit and/or steal.
3 — Trade for Adam Wainwright or Scott Williamson, or another similar impact reliever (trade some combination of Giles, Langerhans, Sosa, maybe a low-level prospect, which you might have to do because of Giles’ low production this season and $3.85 mill salary, which will go to over $5 mill in arbitration next season). The Cards aren’t likely to part with Wainwright, since they plan to move him to their rotation next season. But you never know. And there’s other impact relievers available.
But I repeat — it’s gotta be an impact reliever, not someone like Pittsburgh’s Salomon Torres (although he could be another nice addition along with a better reliever).
If you haven’t been able to trade Sosa and/or Thomson in any of these deals, move one to the bullpen when you put Chuck James in the rotation next week. If you don’t trade Davies, put him in rotation for the other struggling veteran when Davies is ready after break, and move that guy to the ‘pen, too.
How would the potential lineup look in unlikely event these trades would occur? Glad you asked.
Crawford, LF/1B
Renteria, SS
Chipper Jones, 3B
Andruw Jones, CF
Brian McCann, C
Jeff Francoeur, RF
Wilson Betemit, 2B
Adam LaRoche, 1B or, when Crawford’s at 1B, either Matt Diaz or Scott Thorman in LF
In this scenario, Diaz is the fourth OF and Thorman’s a 1B/OF/PH.
While Diaz has been hot, keep this in mind: He’s 17-for-25 (.680) with two doubles, two triples, two homers, six RBIs and one K in eight games against Marlins, and 17-for-72 (.236) with three doubles, one triple, no homers, 18 K and six RBis in 36 games vs. EVERYONE ELSE.
While I’d hate to lose Langerhans’ defense, he might be attractive to several teams as a fourth outfielder and thus would likely be included in one of the above trades.
OK, back to reality. BoSox in town for three. The Sox are 3-7 with a 6.11 ERA in their past 10 games, so it’ll be interesting to see if the Braves can get their offensive in gear against these guys. Beckett is going Saturday, and he’s always tough on Braves, despite his 4-7 career record against them. He’s got a 2.59 career ERA against them, and went 2-0 with no runs allowed in three starts against them last year, and he’s got a 1.67 ERA in five starts at Turner (though only 1-3 record, which is tough to do).
Chipper responds to criticism
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Braves third baseman Chipper Jones responded to criticism that he didn’t do enough to catch the ball on a play at third base in Wednesday’s loss. Jones admitted he probably could have come off the bag and gloved the throw from reliever Mike Remlinger. “I’m trying to hold the bag and make the catch and it went off the end of my glove,” Jones said. “With the bases loaded and nobody out, the odds are stacked against us anyway. I couldn’t afford not to try to stay on the base. That’s not being critical of our pitchers, it’s just a fact.” Jones also said, “I don’t think anyone is in a position to throw stones.” What do you think of his response? Meanwhile, the Braves lost again Thursday. Is the season going down the drain? Is it down the drain?
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The other failures
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The Braves bullpen is worse than bad — it’s horrible. But all the deserved criticism heaped that way has let others off the hook.
Except for Brian McCann and Edgar Renteria, no player is blameless.
That includes the Braves’ biggest names - Chipper Jones, Andruw Jones, John Smoltz and Tim Hudson. None of them are having bad seasons, but they haven’t been really good, either. With the fragile state of the rest of the team, they all needed to be at the top of their games.
Much has been made of Marcus Giles’ shortcomings as a leadoff hitter. But the middle of the lineup has hardly been fearsome.
Andruw Jones has 16 homers and 56 RBIs, but he isn’t the offensive force he was last season.
Most perplexing is the power drop-off of Chipper Jones. He is hitting .291, but has just seven homers and 34 RBIs. It doesn’t look like his legs are back after getting hurt in April.
The Jones duo has also struck out way too much, joining their struggling teammates.
Smoltz and Hudson have both pitched well for the most part. But being a combined 10-9 with a 3.79 ERA isn’t enough to carry a rotation with way too many question marks.
The Braves are a mess right now and the blame should be spread around.
The blame? Ask Chipper, reliever says
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The Braves lost to the Marlins 6-5 Wednesday night on a play scored as a throwing error for pitcher Mike Remlinger. The lefty fielded a bunt and tried to get a runner at third in the 10th inning, but the throw sailed past Chipper Jones and the winning run scored. Remlinger apparently felt that Jones might have been able to get a glove on the ball. “Ask Chipper if it was catchable,” Remlinger snapped after the game. “I don’t know. I just threw it.” Jones wasn’t still around to comment. Whose fault was it? More importantly, is this a sign the team is beginning to unravel after its 13th loss in 16 games?
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Looks like streak’s over
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Chris Reitsma is no longer around to boo. But that hardly solves the Braves’ bullpen or other problems.
Reitsma was an easy - and worthy - target. The Braves’ shortcomings, though, go much deeper.
As bad as the bullpen has been, the starting rotation really hasn’t been all that much better. The Braves rank at the bottom of the National League in quality starts.
The offense is also very inconsistent. The problem there, of course, is way too many strikeouts. Too often, the Braves can’t even put the ball in play at key moments in close games.
It all adds up to a team 11 games out of first place and five games under .500. Another division title appears to be just a pipe dream now.
Reitsma would have saved himself and the Braves some grief if he had been upfront about the numbness in his pitching hand earlier. But he didn’t want to make excuses and thought the numbness would go away.
It didn’t. Now Reitsma is on the disabled list and 6-foot-8 Phil Stockman will get his chance to plug one of the many holes in the leaking bullpen.
General manager John Schuerholz should have made moves in the offseason to fix the bullpen and find a leadoff hitter. It is probably too late now.
The Braves could trade Marcus Giles and Adam LaRoche. But would that really bring back all that the Braves need? Not likely.
The Braves won’t keep playing this badly, but it looks like the streak of first-place finishes is over.
Trio on AAA-to-MLB track
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
If Scott Thorman batted right-handed, he’d probably already have been recalled. Unfortunately for the 24-year-old Canadian and the Braves, he doesn’t.
The left-handed hitting Richmond first baseman-outfielder had a four-hit game Monday night, raising his International League average to .326. The 2000 first-round draft choice has 14 homers and 41 RBIs.
Thorman has shown that he deserves a major league shot. But the Braves need a right-handed hitter to platoon with Adam LaRoche and Thorman doesn’t qualify for that.
While Thorman’s promotion from Class AAA may be delayed, a couple of Richmond pitchers appear to be on the fast-track to Atlanta.
Left-hander Chuck James, in AAA to stretch out his arm as a starter, is 1-0 with a 2.61 ERA in five games. He pitched 6 2/3 innings in his past start and has 16 strikeouts to three walks in 20 2/3 innings.
Reliever Phil Stockman, a 6-foot-8 right-hander, hasn’t allowed a run in his past 18 innings. He has a 0.91 ERA and two saves in 16 games, striking out 39 in 29 2/3 innings.
The Braves don’t have as many players to call up as they did last year. But James, Stockman and Thorman appear ready to help in Atlanta.
Ugly, ugly stats
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
If the Nationals beat Colorado today, the Braves would be in fourth place, a half-game behind the Nationals (not to mention 10 behind the Mets, which we’ve already mentioned a couple times elsewhere).
Fourth place, a half-game behind the Nationals. That, my friends, says it all about the Braves’ current state of despair and disrepair.
Actually, it doesn’t say it all. Let’s say some other stuff. Just a few nuggets for those in Braves Nation to sprinkle over the wretched stew of the past two weeks:
*The Braves are 3-11 with a 6.29 ERA since May 29, and have a league-worst 2-9 record in June. They’ve scored four runs or fewer in 10 of their past 14 games, and allowed seven runs or more in half of those 14 games, including games with 12, 13 and yesterday’s season-high 14 runs allowed.
*The Nationals are 9-4 with a 3.69 ERA since May 29, the Marlins are 8-4 with a 3.17 ERA since May 29.
*The Mets? They’re 8-3 with a 2.86 ERA in their past 11 games and 5-0 with a 2.80 ERA and .325 team batting average and 46 runs in their past five games, all on the road.
*The Braves have allowed 20 home runs in June; no other NL team has allowed more than 17.
*The formerly pitching-rich Braves have fallen to 15th in the NL with a 4.78 ERA, and have only 389 strikeouts with 214 walks.
*The starters are 10th with a 4.61 ERA and have the second-fewest wins (17) while being tied for the most losses (27) in the NL.
*The bullpen is officially horrendous, with a league-high 12 blown saves (in 27 chances) ande 5.12 ERA that ranks 15th in the NL. They have the third-fewest strikeouts (128) and are tied for the second-most walks (99).
*The bullpen has allowed .366 opponents’ on-base percentage that’s 13 points higher than any other NL bullpen.
*Braves second basemen have the NL’s worst batting average (.237) and second-worst OBP (.326).
*Braves first basemen have the NL’s worst batting average (.243) and rank 11th in RBIs (36).
*Braves outfielders rank 15th in the NL in on-base percentage (.313), ahead of only the rookie-littered Marlins (.309).
*Braves hitters have more strikeouts (485) than every NL team except Milwaukee (486) and Florida (495), while they’re tied for 10th with 208 walks.
*Four Braves have at least 50 strikeouts, and leadoff man Marcus Giles has 46 K with a .235 average and .328 OBP.
*Ryan Langerhans has hit .212 with two homers, six RBIs, 32 K and a .311 OBP in 107 at-bats in his past 37 games.
*Giles has hit .224 with a .313 OBP in his past 22 games, and .115 (3-for-26) with one run and one RBI in his past six games.
*Chris Reitsma has a majors-worst 9.11 ERA, an NL-worst .364 opponents’ average, and an NL-worst .411 opponents’ average with runners on base. He’s allowed 18.2 baserunners per nine innings pitched; no other qualifying NL reliever has allowed as many as 16 per nine innings pitched.
*San Francisco’s Tim Worrell (8) is the only NL reliever who has allowed more homers than Reitsma and Oscar Villarreal, who’ve allowed seven apiece.
*Villarreal has an 8.79 ERA and .350 opponents’ average in his past 11 appearances.
*Macay McBride has allowed two runs, three hits and six walks with one strikeout in three innings in his past three games.
*Reitsma has allowed 12 hits and 11 runs in 2-2/3 innings (37.13 ERA) in his past three games, has a 15.43 ERA and .440 opponents’ average in his past 11 appearances, and a 7.91 ERA and .359 opponents’ average in 50 appearances since Aug. 7.
*Among qualifying starters, Jorge Sosa has a league-worst .380 average allowed with runners in scorig position, and John Thomson has the fifth-worst overall opponents’ BA (.300).
*Reitsma is the only NL pitcher with a higher opponents’ average with men on base than Sosa (.402).
*The Cubs’ Greg Maddux (82.4) is the only NL pitcher with fewer pitches per start than Thomson (85.2).
A few bright notes:
*All-Star candidates Brian McCann and Edgar Renteria are batting .354 and .327, respectably. Renteria has hit .367 (22-for-60) with five homers and 10 RBIs in his past 15 games, and McCann has a .405 OBP and .546 slugging percentage and hasn’t missed a beat since returning from the DL.
*Wilson Betemit has hit .372 (16-for-43) with three homers since May 2, Kenny Ray has a 2.12 ERA and .194 opponents average in 30 appearances, and Mike Remlinger has a 1.69 ERA and .205 opponents’ average in his past 15 appearances.
Didn’t want anyone to think I was a pessimist or anything.
Apocalypse now in the ‘pen
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
So John Thomson and Chris Reitsma allowed five runs the sixth inning Thursday night to spit up a 2-1 lead in a 7-4 Braves loss to Houston. And…?
That surely didn’t surprise any serious Braves fans, who’ve seen their team give up four runs or more seven times in an inning during the past 12 games. Yes, SEVEN TIMES.
And it didn’t surprise anyone that Thomson and Reitsma would be the ones to leave their fingerprints all over this latest crime scene. They’ve both been in steady free-fall, Thomson for the past three weeks and Reitsma for the entire season - actually, since early August.
Let’s state the obvious: Thomson has been unable to overcome the least bit of adversity lately; put a runner on base, via a hit, error or walk, and it’s as if there’s suddenly a masked man behind the mound swinging a meat cleaver - Thomson loses the ability to focus and make a good pitch. He’s 1-3 with a 10.57 ERA and .374 opponents’ average in his past five starts, with 40 hits (five homers) allowed in just 23-2/3 innings and more walks (10) than strikeouts (8).
He’s reminded everyone why the Braves dropped him from the starting rotation at the end of spring training in the first place (remember, Thomson started the season in the bullpen, before injuries forced a move back to rotation).
We won’t spend much time on the other obvious point: Reitsma looks done, mentally. Fried. He can’t even pitch the sixth inning now without a mental meltdown and an implosion that can suck the soul out of the team and quash any remaining rally hopes.
Stripped of his closer duties (and rightfully so, everyone agrees), he’s now being stripped of all confidence and everything else, and that is hard to watch for anyone who knows him. But hey, that’s life in the pressure cooker. You enjoy the fruits of success and wealth, but sometimes have to endure public ridicule the likes of which most of us can’t imagine. At least winters are nice.
Not meaning to kick a man while he’s down, but… Reitsma might now be officially considered the worst NL reliever this season. At the least, he’s the worst among those expected to fill a major role. He’s got the worst ERA (7.62) among NL relievers with enough innings to qualify, and the second-highest opponents’ average (.330), behind the immortal Rick White (.337) of Cincinnati.
Sorry, not done kicking yet: With runners in scoring position, Reitsma has allowed a .407 average (11-for-27) with six extra-base hits, four walks and a .485 on-base percentage.
Cut to Brando in “Apocalypse Now.” The horror … the horror.
Lefty hitters must simply salivate when they see Reitsma on the mound. They’re batting .386 (22-for-57) with three homers and a .702 slugging percentage against him.
On the road, doesn’t matter if they’re lefty or righty hitters. They all knock him around. Opponents are hitting .385 (25-for-65) against him with 12 extra-base hits, seven walks, a .452 OBP and a staggering .692 slugging percentage.
Just a reminder: This was the Braves’ CLOSER FOR THE FIRST ONE-THIRD OF THE SEASON!
OK, I can’t do it anymore. I really do feel bad piling on the guy, but wow, are those putrid stats.
Of course, he’s hardly alone among Braves relievers stinking up the joint.
Oscar “No, seriously, I’m 7-0” Villarreal leads major league relievers in wins, yet also is tied for third among NL relievers in homers allowed (six), after giving up another Thursday to continue his slide into oblivion. No NL reliever has let in a higher percentage of inherited runners than Villarreal, who’s let in 9 of the 15 he’s inherited (those runners charged to the pitchers in front of him), and lefties are hitting .314 with a .647 slugging percentage against him.
(While we’re thinking about it - guys, it’s time to shave off the Fu Manchus. It’s great if you do the unity thing and win, but a parody if you do it and keep losing. OK, back to the inventory of bullpen woes.)
McBride is damn good against lefties but so far in his young career, hasn’t found a way to get out right-handers. Until he does, any thoughts of him being more than a situational reliever should be tabled.
Kenny Ray has exceeded all expectations and deserves the closer duties that he’s finally getting, but “Death Ray” can’t do it alone.
40-year-old Mike Remlinger is OK in a limited role, but the notion of him suddenly being a situational lefty seems illogical, given how they’ve hit him this season and most of his career. He’s better against righties, always has been.
Chad Paronto - hey, he’s a journeyman who’s pitched like a journeyman. OK some nights, but not a guy you’re going to rely on consistently for key outs. At least not a guy you’d want to rely on, given a choice.
Tyler Yates, same thing. He’s probably here because his contract stipulated he’d get a shot by this point in the season.
Lance Cormier put more baserunners on (16.5 per nine innings) than all but two NL relievers before he was sent down.
Blaine Boyer and John Foster had season-ending surgeries before making contributions, and they were two guys the Braves were counting on, particularly Boyer.
Joey Devine has been a near-disaster since arriving in the majors at the end of last season. Grand slams, hip injury, playoff-ending homer, Wohlers-like wild pitches in San Francisco, back injury that may or may not be career-threatening, depending upon whom you talk to….
Chuck James was effective in middle relief and could’ve probably filled a bigger role in the bullpen, but the Braves decided to send him to the minors to rebuild arm strength and return him to starting - a decision that looks better and better, the more Thomson struggles. Between James and Kyle Davies, whose recovery from groin surgery is going ahead of schedule, the Braves might - MIGHT - have a couple of guys who can help improve the rotation and ease the load on the bullpen in the second half of the season. Thomson and Sosa, I’d suggest you’re on notice. And probably being shopped.
The Braves have big Aussie Phil Stockman and young Will Startup doing big things in the minors, probably poised for callups by later summer (Stockman perhaps sooner). But it’s clear that to make this a viable bullpen, the Braves simply must make a move or two and bring in proven talent to bolster the motley cast in the bargain-basement ‘pen they have now.
When Reitsma is the only guy making more than $700,000, and the vast majority of guys are making at or slightly above the major league minimum … well, you get what you pay for most of the time. The Braves have made do with modest bullpens in the past, but when you don’t have a Big Three in the rotation, when you don’t have starters consistently working 7-8 innings, when you don’t have an offense that can score a ton of runs in a hurry …
When you don’t have ways to ease the burden on the bullpen, you’re going to have a bullpen that comes apart at the seams like a cheap … well, like a cheap bullpen.
On a brighter note, all you Germans out there can celebrate a World Cup victory today! Is Ireland even in this thing, by the way? I gotta bone up on my World Cup knowledge. But I do love the U2-backed commercials on ESPN…
Stats don’t lie, folks
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
When the team flew out of Atlanta Wednesday night, one wonders if the players could look down and literally see the layer of lamentation settling over Braves Nation. Probably not, but it’s thick, at least figuratively.
Folks are starting to worry, there’s no denying it. Only the most blindly loyal fans could honestly say today, after that horrid 2-8 homestand, they aren’t seriously concerned now about the Braves’ chances of a 15th consecutive postseason berth, be it as the division champion or wild card.
But I’m here to tell you … well, I’m not here to tell you anything, actually. Nothing that can make you feel a lot better.
I’ll just say there’s no way I’d bet against them just yet, not with only 60 games down and 102 to go. But I am certain they’ll have to make at least one major move with the pitching staff to reel in the Mets (not to mention the Phillies, who can no longer be overlooked in this thing).
Haven’t heard anything new on any trade fronts, so I’m not going to throw out anymore speculation until I get something of substance to report.
Some good news for the Braves: The Astros aren’t nearly as hot as, well, as hot as Houston. The city is typically sauna-like in mid-June, with temps in mid-90s and much higher humidity than Atlanta’s had recently.
The Astros, on the other hand, have lost 11 of their past 15 games and eight of their past 12 at Can-You-Believe-It-Really-Was-Named-Enron Field? The Braves? They’ve dropped 10 of 18 since Brian McCann got hurt, and he’s not going to play at least until Saturday, it sounds like. We’ll see when we get out to the ballpark, but that’s what he and Bobby indicated yesterday.
More good news (well, you hate to say someone getting hurt is good news, but….): Chris Burke dislocated his shoulder last night and is day-to-day. Not that he’s Alfonso Soriano or anything, but perhaps for at least the first couple of games in the series, the Braves won’t have to watch him come to the plate and remember that knife-to-the-cut homer off Joey Devine that ended the division series here.
OK, before I get ready to head to the park, wanted to run a few stats by you guys. It’s something I found interesting, just because I think it shows how we’re all guilty of allowing initial impressions or subjective opinions about someone or something to become cemented in our minds, notwithstanding recent history that might contradict said opinions. OK, that was a long way of saying we get an idea in our brains and won’t be swayed by actual reality, once it’s established.
For example:
Here’s some stats for a couple of leadoff men since May 2:
In 34 games since May 2, one guy has hit .273 with 21 runs, 15 RBis, 16 walks, 23 strikeouts and a .350 on-base percentage. In that same span, also in 34 games, the other guy has hit .228 with 11 runs, 3 RBIs, 10 walks, 11 strikeouts and a .287 OBP.
Marcus Giles is the one who’s hit .273 with 21 runs, 15 RBIs, the .350 OBP. The Cubs’ Juan Pierre is one who’s hit .228 with11 runs, 3 RBIs and a .287 OBP (actually an improvement for Pierre over his first month).
And here’s a couple of first basemen in that same stretch, since May 2:
In 33 games, one first baseman has hit .294 with six homers, 23 RBIs, a .376 on-base percentage and a .539 slugging percentage (.915 OPS). In that same span, another first baseman has hit .272 with six homers, 15 RBIs, a .394 OBP and .509 slugging percentage (.903 OPS).
Adam LaRoche is the one with the higher average, same number of homers, more RBIs, and higher slugging percentage and OPS. Washington’s Nick Johnson had the higher on-base percentage.
I bring up Pierre and Johnson only because those are the names that immediately come to mind among the many that some folks have suggested the Braves trade for to replace their so-called failed leadoff man and the first baseman who can’t do anything right in some fans’ view.
Here’s one other comparison, and we’ll stick with May 2 for continuity’s sake:
Since May 2, one Brave who, by his own admission, has been struggling to drive the ball consistently, has batted .300 with 12 extra-base hits (three homers), 28 runs, 19 RBIs and an .850 OPS, including a .400 on-base percentage. Another Brave in that same stretch has hit .277 with 16 extra-base hits (seven homers), 19 runs, 27 RBIs and a .785 OPS, including a .299 OBP.
Chipper Jones is the one with the .300 average, 19 RBIs and .850 OPS, and Jeff Francoeur has the .277 average, 27 RBIs and .785 OPS.
Again, not trying to make any statement or take a shot at anybody. Francoeur’s driving in runs, and that’s what Bobby wants more than anything from the 6-hole. I just found it interesting, the perceptions some of us have, and how actual stats and production don’t always support those perceptions.
Oh, and by the way, on an entirely unrelated subject, Brayan Pena has shown me something in the past few weeks. Specifically, that he can play for a lot of teams in the majors. The guy has hit at every level in the minors, and now he’s hit .333 (9-for-27) with a homer and just one strikeout in limited opportunities since McCann got hurt. He’s also impressed with his work behind the dish working with pitchers, which was supposedly not a strong part of his game.
That said, the Braves are eagerly awaiting the return of McCann and that beautiful line-drive swing. He was thriving since moving up in the order, hitting over .400 and driving in runs. They need him, but have to be careful not to play him too soon and risk that injury nagging him all season. He didn’t look good in the video I saw of him running out a single at Rome yesterday. But we’ll see.
Talk to you later.
Oh, wait, just one more stat, and it’s damning: Braves pitchers have allowed .299 average and .379 on-base percentage in the late innings of close games. That average is 24 points higher than any other NL team, and that OBP is 18 points higher. And that, my friends, says a lot about why the Braves have been so lousy in one-run games.
Gotta make a move.
‘Death Ray’ likely new closer
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Can Ken Ray be an adequate closer for a team going for another division title?
The Braves are apparently going to find out.
Manager Bobby Cox doesn’t really have much of an alternate other than giving the journeyman right-hander a chance.
The Braves couldn’t have asked for much more Tuesday night. Ray pitched a perfect ninth inning for his third save as the Braves beat Washington 5-3. It was a bounce-back game for Ray as well as the Braves.
Called on in the ninth inning of close game Saturday night, Ray allowed a three-run homer to Damian Easley as Arizona put the game out of reach. Ray doesn’t have dominant stuff. But he throws strikes and isn’t afraid to go after hitters.
Actually, Ray doesn’t appear to be afraid at all. That’s a quality needed by a closer. Ray has gone through the worst of times in his career, even passing through three independent teams. The Braves need to upgrade the bullpen and general manager John Schuerholz will certainly make that a priority before the trade deadline.
But for now, Ray will get a chance to show what he can do. He won’t be the only Braves reliever pitching in the ninth inning. But he seems to have the best chance of getting the job done.
Frenchy tries to reduce Ks
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Jeff Francoeur was talking to a couple of us hacks before yesterday’s game and conceded that he wants and needs to cut down on his strikeouts. He said he expects to strike out 100 times a season as a power hitter, but that he’s struck out too often this year (46 times in 242 at-bats) to be as productive as he wants to be. He didn’t get all defensive over the line of questioning, didn’t roll his eyes or look at the questioner with a glare that said, ‘What do you know?’
And that’s another reason I like Francoeur as much as most everyone else does, and why I believe he’s going to be a really good player for a long time. He gets it, and he wants it badly, and he isn’t content to be a cover boy and star in his hometown.
I say this because some may have misinterpreted what I wrote about Francoeur in yesterday’s blog, how I think he should be rested now and then just like others, how he might benefit from a day off when he’s struggling, just like the others on the team. Because he’s not there yet, folks. He’s not above it all, not a star yet, and he knows it. For one thing, he’s got to start performing much better on the road before he can be branded a star.
That said, he’s been the best Braves player at Turner Field since he came up in July. Check out these mind-boggling numbers: In 67 home games since arriving from Class AA Mississippi last summer, Francoeur has hit .318 with 20 home runs, 63 RBIs and a fat .971 OPS. The 50 strikeouts/3 walks in 255 at-bats are overshadowed by the sheer productivity at home, not to mention his penchant for the dramatic hit.
OK, now consider this: In 61 road games since his arrival, Francoeur has hit .234 with five homers, 23 RBIs and a .722 OPS. That’s a severe dichotomy, folks. Really severe. The .257 career on-base percentage on the road and dramatically reduced production make the 54 strikeouts/6 walks in 244 road at-bats that much more noticeable.
But anyway… he’s 22. Keep reminding yourselves of that. It’s easy for me to remember because I see him in the clubhouse every day, see the unbridled energy and enthusiasm that simply cannot be maintained by someone older (well, except by maybe Marcus Giles, but he’s not normal).
Francoeur is you or me on 12 cups of coffee… well, that is if we had immense physical gifts including speed, strength, agility and ice water flowing through our veins.
OK, enough about Francoeur. Pencil him in at right field for the next 5-6 years or longer, if new ownership is smart.
What else? Wait, let me change this CD - the first Highwaymen CD. (I love putting that on time to time and hearing Johnny, Waylon, Willie and Kris K. sing like they’re sitting around on a porch, passing around a bottle. The sound of our country right there, folks.)
Oh, yeah … Saltalamacchia.
I DID NOT propose trading him for D-Train yesterday. I merely stated that if the Marlins WOULD trade him to the Braves and demanded Salty, I’d do it, provided the Braves believed they could keep him within their budget. He’s got two more years of arbitration before he’s a free agent, but his arbitration figures are really big.
Still, you could sign him to a multi-year deal, buy out those two years of arbitration and a year of free agency, and have a third ace to pair with Hudson and Smoltz next season, giving the Braves a true Big 3 again. And I think Dontrelle would fit in splendidly here, after seeing his interaction with Braves players around the batting cage and hearing Bobby Cox talk fondly of him so often.
And if next year is Smoltz’s last with Atlanta (I’m CERTAIN they will pick up the $8 mill option year on his contract for 2007, and Smoltz has been told not to worry about it by Braves higher-ups), then Willis and Hudson are at the top of the rotation in 2008, by which point Kyle Davies should be coming into his own as a consistent 15-game winner or more.
Hampton’s back for two more years, but I just don’t see how you can count on him being healthy and as good as he was before his elbow surgery. By the way, his recovery is going great and he’s going to start throwing soon, but still aiming for 2007 spring training.
The only way Salty should be untouchable is if the Braves have him penciled in to play first base next season, in my opinion. And I don’t know if that’s realistic when they’ve barely seen him even take ground balls over there in batting practice. While it’s reasonable to assume he could play the position, could he play it well? It’s a crucial position that people wrongly assume can be handled by any slugger.
A team built on pitching, which is what the Braves have been in the past and want to be again, needs strong up-the-middle defense and needs a good first baseman. I haven’t seen Scott Thorman enough to judge his defense, but he’s raking at Triple-A and it might be time to bring him up and see what he can do. As I’ve said before, B.J., great guy that he is, isn’t giving the Braves anything offensively or defensively.
Jordan is 3-for-30 with one RBI and nine strikeouts in his past 13 games.
And don’t look now, but Matt Diaz is 1-for-16 with one RBI and five strikeouts since May 26.
And Langerhans is 18-for-89 (.202) with two homers, six RBIs and - yikes - 29 strikeouts in his past 31 games.
Chipper’s not hitting like Chipper (it’s a “soft” .293 he’s hitting). Andruw’s as streaky as ever.
The Braves are hoping like crazy to get Brian McCann back Thursday, because their offensive funk began the day he got hurt May 20. With a few exceptions, an eight-homer game in at windy Wrigley here, a comeback win there - they have been in a malaise since he went down.
OK, gotta get going and get out to the park. Horacio going against a no-name pitcher (Shawn Hill) tonight, and we know how the Braves often do against the no-name pitchers. It’ll be interesting if Ho can make it three strong starts in a row since his return from the DL. If he does, then maybe, just maybe, he’ll be back to the pitcher the Braves thought he’d be by now after his solid rookie year a few years back.
Later.
Daily batting log for Jeff Francoeur (ROAD)
Totals
AVG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TBB SO SB CS ERR PA
.234 61 244 28 57 13 2 5 23 6 54 1 3 4 253
OBP SLG SH SF HBP GDP W/L
.257 .365 0 1 2 2 29-32-0
Still a chance in the NL (L)East
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
For those of you not old enough to remember the cartoon show “Gulliver’s Travels,” there was a gloomy character, I think his actual name was Glum, who would always say with a tone of utter despair, “We’re doomed. We’re never going to make it.”
I’d guess there are a lot of Braves fans feeling a bit like that after the heinous weekend display at Turner Field, where the Bravos were swept aside in a four-game series against the Diamondbacks, making it six losses in the first seven games of a 10-game homestand that has been utterly wretched.
Alas, folks, it ain’t over. Not yet. I know it’s getting tiresome saying “it’s early” and “the Braves have been in this position before,” so I won’t say it. Besides, it’s not THAT early (35 percent of the season is complete, after all).
If the Braves were in the NL West, I’d say it was over. They’d be in fifth place, behind the San Francisco Circus … I mean the the Giants.
But they’re in the East, which is turning out to be rather pedestrian, what with the Mets refusing to run away from the pack and the Phillies just about as erratic and flawed as the Braves. Unless and until the Mets land another ace to add to their thin rotation, I don’t think they’re going to open a lead too large for the Braves to overcome. Now, that could happen. They could add a stud to go with Pedro and Glavine, in which case only a major injury — David Wright, for instance — in their lineup would probably prevent the Mets from winning the division.
They are simply a better team than the Braves, on balance. But again, with their pitching situation, the Mets aren’t assured of anything. The Braves can reel them in, no question. Not saying they will, but can.
OK, what are the Braves’ biggest problems? We all know the bullpen is bad. Really bad. Reitsma not only isn’t fit for the closer job, but at this point, his psyche is so battered, I don’t know if he’s fit for anything other than mop-up work or middle-relief in blowouts. Maybe he’ll get it turned around with a few solid outings in middle relief, but first Bobby Cox has to admit Reitsma has totally fallen on his face and that it’s time — for his sake, the team’s sake, the tortured fans’ sake — to move the big right-hander to a place where he can’t do any more damage.
The Braves simply have to acquire a proven, hard-throwing reliever who can get strikeouts and close games out, because they’re not good enough to win the division or the wild card with so many one-run losses. Such a trade almost certainly means they’ll have to overpay in the form of a prospect or two that they don’t want to give up, but you know what? It’s time.
The division-title streak is on the line, and there’s no sense in building one of the best farm systems in baseball if you can’t use a piece or two once in a while to fill a hole, even if it’s a trade that you don’t “win” — and the Braves have won enough of them to concede perhaps a small loss in terms of getting value-for-value in a deal when desperate times call for desperate measures. This is getting close to desperate, even though it’s June. Not at desperate yet, but like Stuckey’s or South of the Border, the signs are coming up every freakin’ minute it seems. Desperation, just around the corner.
Move Smoltz back to closer? I say no, for a few reasons. One, he doesn’t want to do it, and he’s earned the right, after four elbow surgeries and much blood (or at least fluid from having his elbow) spilled for this team, to not be asked to do a role he feels compromises both his health and his ability to help the team most in the postseason. I know, I know, you have to get to the playoffs first before he can help there, but just remember how many people _ including Smoltz _ were frustrated when he sat in the bullpen helplessly watching the Braves’ postseasons end when he was the closer.
The man absolutely lives for the biggest games, and the biggest games are in the postseason, when he wants to be in control. Can’t do that as closer if your team doesn’t give you leads.
Here’s a stat: Smoltz, the winningest pitcher in postseason history, is 13-4 with a 2.55 ERA in 27 postseason starts, including seven innings of one-run ball last season in a win against the Astros in the division series, when he pitched with a shoulder so stiff that he could barely raise his arm without excruciating pain. Folks, he’s a rare breed, and he needs to be healthy and ready to take the ball for two starts in a postseason series. If the Braves get there, they can win any series with a healthy Smoltz and Hudson pitching the way he is now. Starters are that big in the postseason, as the Braves have been reminded during their recent playoff losses to Big Unit/Schilling D-Backs, Prior/Wood Cubs, Rocket/Oswalt/Pettitte Astros, etc.
In the past three postseasons as closer, Smoltz made a total of six appearances and was 2-0 with a 2.38 ERA and one save in two opps. ONE SAVE.
The Braves don’t need to move one of their two best starters to the bullpen. If anything, they need to add another elite starter to make sure they have at least two healthy aces for the postseason. If they can get Dontrelle Willis, who’s making $4.35 mill this year, the Braves should do it as soon as possible. The Marlins love prospects, and Willis is still so young and good (don’t care what his numbers say this year) that I’d give up — drum roll, please — Saltalamacchia to get him. I would.
Imagine having Willis, whom I think would get straightened out real quick with a move to the Braves, along with Smoltz and Hudson down the stretch drive and into the postseason?
OK, gotta get out to the park, so I can’t get into a few other things I wanted to discuss. But let me just say, Marcus Giles’ leadoff work isn’t at top of list of things killing the Braves. People, he’s hit .310 with two homers, nine runs, 12 RBIs and a .431 OBP in his past 11 games, with only five strikeouts and eight walks in that span. He’s coming around, but I know people still point to him because they’re trying to find the solution to an offense that looks so inept in some games, so explosive in others (mostly inept the past couple of weeks).
I think much will improve when McCann gets back. With the exception of a few games, the Braves have been bad offensively since May 20, the day he got hurt. It’s not a coincidence. He and Renteria have been their best hitters all season.
I still think Betemit needs to be in the lineup at least 4-5 times a week, mostly in LF but also give him a first-base mitt NOW and try him there. B.J. is giving the Braves next to nothing in 1B platoon with LaRoche, and Langerhans has taken a big step back this year in left. Betemit could also spell Chipper once a week at 3B and Renteria once every 10 days or so at SS.
Finally, the Francoeur honeymoon should end. Why is it that everyone else who slumps gets a “rest” but Francoeur plays every day? He’s got all but two — TWO — at-bats by a Braves RF this year, and has the second-worst OBP in the NL (.260), including a punty .240 vs. right-handers. He’s 12-for-64 (.188) with three RBIs and 16 strikeouts in his past 16 games, and Francoeur’s high RBIs for the season are a direct reflection of the fact that he and Andruw have gotten so many more at-bats with runners in scoring position than anyone else on the team, rather than them being more efficient in those at-bats (they haven’t been).
Fromm the RF position, the Braves are last in the NL in OBP (.262) and only 10th in slugging (.432). Again, Francoeur has every at-bat but two at the position. Try Diaz over there from time to time. Move Jordan out there a time or two and have Betemit play first. Something. Just don’t keep waiting for Francoeur to recapture the magic of the second half last season.
Not to claim I was alone in this opinion, but my biggest concern about this team entering the season was the reliance on so many guys who had less than in a major league lineup. A couple of those, Francoeur and Langerhans, have taken a step back.
OK, out of time. Talk to you later.
It’s not all Ramirez’ fault
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
This morning I received an e-mail from a reader who made a couple of good points about last night’s game, and how it wasn’t just Ramirez’s error that caused the loss. He was wondering why I focused so much on that play instead of pointing out all the other problems.
The reader understood after I explained to him that, due to space and time limitations (especially time limitations), the game story simply isn’t a good forum to provide an in-depth analysis of all the fundamental problems that have affected the team, etc. When I explained to him that I literally had to write the game story between the time the error was made and the last pitch, to file before I went down for interviews, he understood what I meant by deadline restrictions. Before that error, it was a 0-0 game. Not a lot to write. And the play obviously changed everything.
But his point is one that’s valid, and that is, Ramirez’s error didn’t have to result in a loss. Particularly if Mike Remlinger had been able to get that third out, as the two relievers before him had gotten outs. And particularly if Edgar Renteria hadn’t been thrown out unwisely trying to advance to third on a ground ball hit in front of him to the shortstop.
Also, what about Chipper’s failure to get the ball to the right side to advance Renteria to third base? The rule is, by the way, that the baserunner shouldn’t go in that situation unless the ball goes behind him, because otherwise there’s very little chance he’s going to beat the shortstop’s throw to third base. Fundamentals, something Renteria has excelled at throughout his career, but not last night.
There’s a lot of little things the Braves haven’t done particularly well this year, a lot of things that could have helped them win some of those major-league leading 24 one-run games (they’ve lost 14 of them). While one-run records are often based on luck more than anything, the Braves could have helped themselves a lot of times by moving runners over, playing “small ball” better than they do.
Having veteran sluggers like Andruw Jones and Chipper Jones and other guys who never bunt, like LaRoche, can limit some of the thigns you can do in a tight ballgame, in my opinion. But others like Langerhans and Francoeur — especially Francoeur — aren’t exactly adept at hitting the ball the other way to move runners over or laying down bunts on occasion, either. The Braves just don’t have many such guys in the lineup or on their bench.
OK, Remlinger. Bobby’s big thing this spring was how Remlinger’s new breaking ball would allow him to use him against righties and lefties, unlike in past when Remlinger wasn’t much against lefties (his changeup made the veteran lefty bettter against righties than lefties). But it’s not working out. Rem has been hit for a .324 average by lefty hitters, so using him to get lefties out isn’t making much sense one-third of the way through the season. Only Macay McBride (4-for-22) and Chuck James (1-for-11), among the lefty relievers, have been effective against lefty batters, and James is at Richmond now, building arm strength to return to starting.
It’s worth noting, Ken Ray’s .196 average allowed by lefties is another reason to believe he might just make a solid closer. He’s as good against them as against righties. Again, we won’t know until he faces the best hitters more in pressure ninth-inning situations, but it’s time to try unless and until the Braves get someone better through trade (again, I haven’t heard anything yet, but those talks should be heating up in the next few weeks).
Alright, don’t have much time to write. Running late today. Gotta get ready and get out to the park. Just wanted to thank the fan again for the e-mail, and for understanding my explanation about time restraints, etc. I think that’s one great thing about this blog forum, it allows us to talk about stuff and for you guys here to mull over all the little things that happen in the game, stuff that simply has to be left out of a game story in the paper because of the space and deadline restrictions.
Oh, and how about this: Braves have hit just .234 in 12 games since Brandon Webb stuck it to them at Arizona. And in last three games vs. D-backs, they’ve hit .146 and scored three runs.
And how about these alarming two-strike stats. We know the Braves are striking out entirely too much, but check these three in particular. Averages when batting with two-strikes: Langerhans is 9-for-78 (.115) with 46 K, Francoeur is 10-for-82 (.122) with 42 K, and Giles is 13-for-92 (.141) with 38 K, but does have 22 walks.
A Ray of hope
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The more others struggle in the Braves’ bullpen, the more Death Ray’s performance stands out.
Kenny Ray pitched a perfect ninth inning Wednesday with two strikeouts in a blowout against Los Dodgers. Lest anyone point out how much easier it is to pitch with a six-run lead in a game that’s over, keep in mind at certain other Braves relievers have coughed up leads almost that large lately. Ray’s pitched basically the same regardless of the situation. If they’re not Padres, they’re not scoring on him, apparently.
We’ve done our part in advocating Ray for the closer job for, oh, a month now. And in the past couple of weeks, his role has morphed into a co-closer thing, whether it’s officially called that or not.
Ray has a 1.38 ERA and .182 opponents’ average in 26 appearances, numbers that would have fit in nicely with that juggernaut 2002 Braves bullpen, but numbers that scream for attention in this, uh, well, decidedly less proficient ‘pen.
He gave up four runs, five hits and two walks in two appearances against the Padres on April 16 and May 22. In Death Ray’s other 24 games, he’s allowed - pause for effect - 11 hits and ZERO runs in 25 innings, with 10 walks and 17 strikeouts. Not bad for a journeyman who hadn’t pitched in the majors since 1999 and was stuck in some independent league on the Jersey Shore or some such place last season until the Braves signed him and sent him to Richmond.
But by now you probably know the back story on the former Roswell High pitcher. Just want to again point out that, one-third of the way into the season, he’s still doing it, maybe better than ever.
Could he keep it up as a full-time closer? Don’t know, but Braves may need to find out, depending whether they can trade for someone else before July 31 - and no, before the question’s asked, I’m hearing nothing of report-worthy trade rumors. Teams just aren’t ready to dump closer-ready guys at this point, but give it a few more weeks and that should change as a few teams fall by the wayside.
Now, couple other matters: Braves bullpen has slipped to third-worst in the NL in ERA (4.89), with a league-high 12 blown saves in 25 chances. Only Giants relievers, with 91, have fewer strkeouts than the Braves (108) in the NL. And the Braves relievers have 84 walks to go with it, not at all a good combination.
Mets relievers, by comparison, have a 3.46 ERA with 182 strikeouts and 67 walks. But a couple of Mets relievers also been overworked, so we’ll see how long they can keep up this pace.
Here’s a really damning stat, in my view: In close and late situations, only the Giants (.299) have a higher opponents’ average than Braves relievers (.296), and only the Marlins (.446) have allowed a higher slugging percentage in those spots than the Braves (.443). Yikes.
Now, a couple of you asked about Lance Cormier. Again, a misinformed rumor run amok. He didn’t refuse to report to Richmond, nothing of the sort. He was OPTIONED to Richmond, not designated for assignment. He had options left, one of the reasons the Braves liked him and Villarreal (also has options) when they traded for them in exchange for Estrada. Gave them flexibility in case those guys weren’t ready this year.
The bad rumor probably stemmed from another, actual fact: Travis Smith, the journeyman pitcher, refused an assignment to Richmond, which he had the right to do as an old dude with no options left. That’s why Braves had to designate him for assignment. He opted to become a free agent, and at last check, no one’s signed him yet.
One other thing: Cormier, much as some may want to portray otherwise, had not pitched well lately. Not since the side strain that eventually landed him on the DL. In his last nine appearances sandwiched around that May DL stint, Cormier allowed 12 hits, 13 runs and 12 walks in 10 innings (11.70 ERA). Folks, that’s just not good. He gave up at least one run in seven of those 10 outings.
So let’s not act so confused or shocked that he got sent down, just because the timing seemed odd to some, coming after he allowed one run in 3-2/3 innings the night before. He also gave up three hits and three walks in that less-than-perfect outing, but was moved because the Braves wanted to bring up Tyler Yates.
While Cormier’s struggles weren’t exactly Kolbian in scope - and yes, I may have to update that reference here soon, if you know what I mean - Cormier was hardly Death Ray’s sidekick as bullpen saviors.
Hey, and might as well address the Tim Hudson rumor, since a couple of folks are going to ask about it each day as long as it sits growing mold on the ESPN rumor mill site (and it will sit there for a long time, count on it). Braves aren’t and haven’t talked to teams about dealing Hudson, and the only way - ONLY WAY - he might be traded is if Braves fell out of playoff contention before July 31. Period. Even then, I don’t think he’d be dealt because John S. would never move him for anything less than a huge return package.
OK, gotta get ready and get out to the ballpark. The surging D-Backs in town for four. Braves better watch out. These guys are seriously putting it together, and their lineup is solid almost top-to-bottom.
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