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Friday, June 30, 2006
Smoltz ultimatum a tall order
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
So if the Braves “must find a way” to go 8-2 on this 10-game homestand, as John Smoltz said Wednesday, then I’m not looking forward to talking to him should they lose a few. Because then what’s he going to say?
That’s the problem with ultimatums like that. You leave yourself little wiggle room. Chipper took a better tact when he simply said they need to play like they did on the road trip, like they did for most of the three games at Yankee Stadium, and that if they did that, wins would come and they’d beat the teams they’re supposed to beat. Because seriously, what are the chances of a team that’s 1-12 at home in June going 8-2 in this 10-game homestand that starts Friday night and carries through to the All-Star break? It might happen, but I don’t think anybody out there would bet on it.
Anyway, here we are, 10 games to go before the break, and the Braves really don’t have much longer to say there’s plenty of time left. They’ve got to start whittling down the lead and reeling in teams if they have any hope at all for the wild card, which they publicly insist they do. It can be done, but let’s be frank: it would take much better pitching than they’ve gotten recently from Tim Hudson, much better work than they’ve gotten all year from the back of the bullpen — actually, it’d take a trade or two to strengthen the bullpen, not just better work from the current group — and more production from the likes of Giles (everywhere), LaRoche (at home) and Francoeur (on the road).
But we’ve said that for weeks. Everyone knows it. Now, they’ve just got to do it.
Chipper has shown some recent signs of coming out of his funk. He hit a lot of balls well in New York. But the leadoff thing has festered for a half-season now, and it’s going to take a huge turnaround from Giles for him to avoid having the worst season of his career at the most inopportune time. I really don’t think it’s been pressure from hitting leadoff that’s been the primary factor in his woeful season; that’s been part of it, perhaps, but it’s more a combination of missing so much of spring training, getting in a rut early and pressing, and perhaps not being as physically strong as he’s been in the past. He’s just not driving the ball consistently like he used to, notwithstanding the homer he hit Wednesday at Yankee Stadium. He used to hit a ball like that every week, didn’t he?
If I had to guess which players from the current core group would be traded by the July 31 deadline or this winter, Giles would top it. I don’t see him back next year, because the Braves have middle-infield depth with Yunel Escobar, Tony Pena Jr. and Martin Prado, who was very impressive in his brief stint early and could be the second baseman next season. I don’t see Thomson or Sosa back, either, but that goes without saying. Either or both could also be gone by July 31, if they’re are any takers offering anything in return.
Here’s where it gets interesting. The Braves could afford to deal a veteran starting pitcher this winter, because they have Chuck James and Davies coming back next season at salaries under $1 million combined. Hampton is untradeable, so he’s going to be part of the rotation in 2007 (and he really does look good in rehab, by the way. He’s kept himself in excellent condition, admirable considering he could sit back, get fat for a year and know he’s going to get paid regardless; he hasn’t done that.).
Horacio has pitched so well since coming off DL, I’d think Braves will get real trade interest in him, but won’t want to deal him unless they can get a really attractive return. That could give them three lefties in next year’s rotation, but there’s nothing wrong with that whatsoever.
That would leave Smoltz at $8 million, and Hudson at $6 mill next year before his salary shoots to $13 mill each of the next two years in 2008-09. To me, that makes Hudson the more likely tradeable guy, particularly if he’d reel off a good run over the second half of the season. For all of Smoltz’s accomplishments and postseason prowess, fact is, he’s 39 and has had four elbow surgeries, and that limits the number of teams that would give up a lot to acquire him. Besides, he’s a bargain next year, and he’s the most recognizeable Brave, the pitching version of Dale Murphy, but not on his last legs like Dale was when traded away.
If Hudson finishes the year strong, Braves could move him in offseason to a team that would weigh his low salary next year and the two after that and decide he’s work $32 mill over three years. But if they don’t deal him before next season, all of a sudden you’re looking at guy owed $26 mill over two seasons and, barring a big improvement over his work since getting to Atlanta, he isn’t going to look so attractive at $13 mill per year for two years, plus a $12 mill option for 2010 and $1 mill buyout.
If they traded Hudson this winter, Braves would clear a lot of payroll for coming years, and then could decide based on next season how much Smoltz has left and whether he’d want to stay for yet another year at an affordable price. But the point is, only Hampton among pitchers would still have a multi-year commitment from Braves if Hudson were traded, and there’d be room for James, Davies and Ramirez all to develop into a potentially solid rotation core.
The Braves will almost certainly need to acquire another outfielder, unless they see enough of Diaz the rest of the way to believe he can be a regular. Langerhans, as great as he is with the glove, looks like a fourth outfielder and could be dealt. With Francoeur being a .300 or so OBP guy at one outfield corner (or CF in future), they can’t afford to not have a high-average, high-OBP guy at the other outfield corner, too.
They’re obviously set at catcher with McCann, and with Renteria at shortstop unless new ownership decides to cut payroll signigicantly, in which case teams would line up to get Renteria, given what he’s done this season and what Boston is paying on his contract. Again, Braves have middle-infield prospects who are just about ready, including Prado and Escobar.
I still don’t see any likelihood that Chipper gets traded, just because of the remaining money on the two guaranteed years of his contract in 2007-08 and what he’s meant to the franchise. And I don’t see them trading Andruw at least until next year’s trade deadline, and then only if they realize they can’t afford to re-sign him and someone offers such a huge package for Andruw that it makes up the difference in what they’d lose taking him out of the lineup for the last two months of the 2007 season. Of course, so much also would depend on whether they’re in the playoff race then; I’m assuming they will be.
OK, I’ve rambled. Just wanted to throw out some ideas that a few of us hacks have been discussing, the vibe I’m getting just from talking to some in the organization, including players and others.
