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Tuesday, June 20, 2006
Smoltz trade rumors a crock
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
We in the media can be the most self-important group of people imaginable. All of us.
But the self-perceived levels to which we can raise ourselves never ceases to amaze me.
Case in point: The sudden John Smoltz trade “rumors.”
Let’s be clear from the top. These rumors have come from absolutely no one within the Braves organization. Not even the media members who started these rumors, and those who’ve stoked them for two days in the way only media members can, have ever suggested that they heard anything from anyone connected with the Braves that the team has any intention, any notion, any thought whatsoever of trading Smoltz. Nothing.
This is entirely a case of, since the Braves have been horrible for 20 games (3-17) and realistically fallen out of the division race, well, then, they might start trading veterans. That’s it. So from there, the next step is to name the most visible, recognized, accomplished and highly paid members of the team, and start saying “what if.”
And since John was involved in one of these rather famous summer trades many years ago, the one that brought him from Detroit for aging veteran pitcher Doyle Alexander, and since John is now the aging veteran, and just as importantly, since John has never shied from a camera or microphone or reporter’s question — and for that, we are grateful: thank you, John — the TV folks just asked him point-blank. And John, as competitive as any athlete I’ve ever covered and as upset by all this losing as anyone, answered with a frustrated and reasonable reply.
They asked him “if” the Braves approached him about a trade, would he consider dropping his no-trade protection afforded him as a “10-and-5” player (10 years in majors, five with current team) in order to go somewhere like, oh, Detroit, where he’s from. What’s he supposed to say, when asked this in the middle of yet another loss? I mean, he could’ve said, “Listen, I don’t want to talk about trade rumors or anything else right now, I just want to focus on trying to get this turned around.” But the frustrations, etc., I’m sure led him to reply with something along the lines of, “Sure, I’d listen.”
OK, that’s it. That’s the entire basis of these rumors. Again, stemming from nothing more than the ever-fertile mind of one media member. Not from a Braves executive, not from another team that said the Braves have dangled Smoltz. Simply from the mind of the person asking the question. Which is fine, if it ended there. But of course it never does.
From that one interview, the words get twisted, strengthened, molded into much stronger messages by other media outlets. Then fans, understandably upset at the lousy month the Braves are having and the dismal postseason chances, hear it and run with it. All of a sudden, people are having serious on-air debates over whether Smoltz should be traded and what the Braves could get for him.
Again, nevermind that this hasn’t been discussed by the Braves (I got that from a very good source Monday) and they have no intention of trading John for a couple of huge reasons. Nevermind that it makes little sense to trade him, or to have a fire sale or start a rebuilding project.
Ladies and gents, teams generally have fire sales when they’re losing tons of money in bad ballparks, or when they have decrepit lineups that need to be blown up and rebuilt.
The Braves aren’t the Padres at old Jack Murphy Stadium, unable for years to get a new ballpark and willing to trade off Gary Sheffield and others once they made too much money. They aren’t the Marlins, drawing 5,000 fans in a football stadium with a bad lease, unable to get a new ballpark built or drum up more interest despite winning two World Series.
The Braves are about to be sold to an ownership group that, despite what so many fans insist — again based on nothing more than feelings and hearsay — have given no indication whatsoever that they plan to reduce payroll, much less strip it down to anything remotely similar to Florida’s.
Much as some have suggested, there are no signs yet of a fan “boycott” (righteous cause, brothers — let’s boycott the Braves, who have the temerity to not win more than one World Series while going to the last 14 postseasons) and the Braves aren’t losing money.
Finally, getting back to Smoltz in particular. I’m not going to get into the particulars of why the Braves aren’t likely to trade Chipper (he’s a Braves icon, his production’s down, he’s owed $11 mill each of the next two seasons guaranteed, can veto any trade, and the New York teams have third basemen, just to name a few reasons it won’t happen) or trade Andruw (he’s going to win a ninth consecutive gold glove, hit 40-45 homers, drive in over 100, led the majors in homers last season, and is going to make a reasonable $13.5 mill next season, and the Braves could wait to trade him this winter or next summer if they don’t think they can afford to re-sign him).
I’ll just stick to Smoltz (actually, I just named a lot of the particulars on why they probably won’t trade the Joneses. Oh, well.) Anyway, back to Smoltz: People, he’s not Doyle Alexander on a crappy team that needs to be rebuilt.
Smoltz, despite his 4-5 record, is still a very good pitcher, a top-of-the-rotation pitcher who has a solid 3.78 ERA, .251 opponents’ average, 88 strikeouts with 25 walks in 102-1/3 innings, and has no arm problems for the first time in a long time. He has worked six or more innings in 11 straight starts, including seven or more in eight of those 11. After struggling in his first two starts on the West Coast this season, Smoltz has a 3.39 ERA in his past 13 starts. The Braves have scored two runs or fewer in EIGHT of those 13 starts. Eight. And the bullpen has blown potential wins in at least five. (Have we mentioned the Braves have the worst bullpen in the NL? Oh, we have. Good.)
My point is, he’s still a horse, still a pitcher hitters hate to face, and still gives the Braves their best chance to win. And he’s making ONLY $8 MILLION NEXT SEASON.
Let’s reiterate that, since I’ve seen everything from $12 mill to $15 mill quoted as his salary next season: The Braves have a club option for $8 million in 2007. Do you know how relatively paltry that salary is for a pitcher of Smoltz’s ilk? I mean, you can’t get a Matt Clement for that. Hell, you can barely get Jaret Wright.
The only reason the salary is that low is because Smoltz, who wanted badly to stay with the Braves and wanted badly to return to starting, agreed to rework his contract a couple years ago, dropping a $100,000 per start clause on top of his $11 mill salary back then, and agreeing to an extension at a relatively bargain-basement price. He knew that with his four elbow surgeries, the Braves were taking somewhat of a risk extending his deal. The man has been very fair with the team.
Anyway, $8 mill next season. Since returning to the rotation last year, Smoltz is 18-12 with a very solid 3.28 ERA in 48 starts, and a team-high 332 innings in that stretch.
And here’s a remarkable stat: The Braves have scored two runs or fewer while he’s been in the game in 24 of those 48 starts. HALF OF THEM. If they score, say, four in half of those 24, he’s got another 6-7 wins, easily. But I know that’s playing with numbers. I’m just pointing out, two runs or fewer in 24 of 48 starts is awful luck.
The Braves expect Mike Hampton to be back strong next year, and so far in his rehab he looks very good. He had elbow and knee surgeries, and he’s moving better than he has in years. He’s still in his prime years, or should be, and even though he’s gotten hurt a lot, Braves have reason to believe he can still be solid. He’s also untradeable, completely, with that huge contract.
So they have Smoltz, Tim Hudson and Hampton back at top of their rotation next year, with Kyle Davies and perhaps Horacio Ramirez or Chuck James. Seriously, that’s the makings of a formidable rotation.
And they have Francoeur, McCann, Renteria, Chipper, Andruw at five of eight positions.
So why would they blow this up? Makes no sense. They used 18 rookies last year, and won a division in what other teams would consider a rebuilding year. No team in this situation would now blow this up and start over.
Once more: Smoltz makes $8 mill next year. Mike Mussina of the Yankees is making $19 mill this year. He’s 21-11 with a 3.95 ERA, .264 opponents’ average, 280 innings, and more than six support runs per nine innings over the past two seasons (Smoltz, again: 18-12 with a 3.28 ERA, .245 opponents average and 332 innings in that stretch, with 4.7 support runs per nine innings).
Boston’s Clement is making $9.8 mill this year. He’s 18-11 with a 5.09 ERA and .268 opponents’ average in 256 innings since start of 2005 season, with 6.7 support runs.
Tom Glavine, already a 10-game winner this year, is making about $10 mill this year and is 23-15 with a 3.52 ERA and .269 opponents’ average in 307 innings over two seasons, with 4.9 support runs per nine innings).
Texas’ Kevin Millwood, making $7.8 mill this year and more next, is 17-14 with a 3.38 ERA and .261 opponents’ average in 285 innings over two seasons, with 4.5 support runs per nine innings.
Toronto’s A.J. Burnett, who’s making more than $10 mill per year over four seasons, is 12-13 with a 3.58 ERA in 219 innings over two seasons.
Just trying to offer some perspective. My point: Smoltz is very affordable, the kind of guy the Braves would be dying to get next season if they are contending and needed a starter, and they have him for $8 mill. He doesn’t want to be traded, they don’t want to trade him. He was asked a hypothetical question and answered that he’d listen. That’s all.
But if the Braves don’t approach him about a trade, which I’m told they have no intention of doing, then why is it even relevent? He’s certainly not going to ask to be traded (or if he did, it’d shock me, given what he’s said about wanting to remain a Brave. And if he ever did ask for a trade, don’t think we wouldn’t hear about it from the Braves, who’d make it clear it wasn’t their idea to deal him).
OK, that’s it. Just thought I’d try to bring some level-headed perspective to this “rumor” mill. From one self-important journalist to all of you out there making much too much out of casual media speculation.
