AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2006 > June > 16
Friday, June 16, 2006
Move now to make Wild Card
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Seven-and-half games behind on June 16. On the one hand, the Braves have overcome greater deficits at later dates in previous seasons.
On the other hand — assuming some of you haven’t chewed off the other hand and thrown it at the TV while watching the Braves during this 3-14 stretch — that’s 7-1/2 games out of the WILD CARD, rather than first place in the division. (Yes, put me in that overcrowded bandwagon of folks who believe the Braves can’t catch the Mets).
As many fans and even some Braves players have pointed out in recent seasons, the team might be better off winning the wild card rather than the division anyway, given that the wild-card winner is forced to play its best baseball right down to the wire, instead of putting things on cruise control in September the way the Braves have done so many times after wrapping up the division title early.
The problem with being 7-1/2 games behind wild-card leader Cincinnati is that, at last count, at least seven other teams were closer to the Reds (it’s late, I’ve gotta get to the ballpark, and I don’t have time to count them again).
When you have to overcome a multitide of teams, rather than catch one, well, it does bring many other factors into the equation, including the obvious need for all of those others to play lesser ball than you the rest of the way.
That’s asking a lot, considering how the Braves have stumbled. Consider this: The Braves went 15-5 with 4.19 ERA, .288 average and 126 runs scored from May 7-28, but they are 3-14 with 5.96 ERA, .257 average and 65 runs scored in 17 games since May 29. Yikes!
Just FYI, during that stretch the Mets are 12-4, the Marlins are 11-4, the Phillies 8-9, and Nationals 9-8.
Having said all that, the Braves can win the wild card, but only if they make two or three significant personnel moves — not minor moves, significant ones — and get improved performance from virtually every key contributor on the roster, save for Edgar Renteria and Brian McCann, who deserve to make the All-Star team.
Here’s a couple of suggestions I made late last night on previous blog, just to give you some idea of the level of significance I’m talking about with 2-3 trades:
1 — Get Dontrelle Willis (Yes, even if they have to give up Salty and a middle infielder or pitching prospect to get him). Problem is, the better the Marlins play, the less inclined they might be to trade him, at least not until right at the trade deadline and only if blown away in a proposal.
But if the Braves could land him, he’s the guy who could take the baton from Smoltz after next season (I’m assuming Braves will exercise $8 mill option on Smoltz for 2007) and join Tim Hudson as co-aces for a few years (again, assuming Braves could sign Willis to an extension). Then you fill out a solid rotation with the likes of Chuck James, Kyle Davies, or other prospects, and, oh yeah, hope to get a couple of solid seasons out of Mike Hampton.
2 — Get Carl Crawford from Tampa Bay.
He’s only in the second year of a very reasonable four-year, $15.25 mill contract with two club option years that could extend the deal to 2010. If Braves could get him, he’d be a tremendous help not just immediately, but for for two more seasons, at least. He becomes your impact left fielder and hits atop the order, and that’s why I think it’s worth giving up two top prospects to get him, maybe one of the middle infielders (Escobar or Andrus or one of the younger ones even) and a young pitcher or pitching prospect.
Crawford is a .290 career hitter, hit .301 last year, led AL in triples past two seasons (a whopping 34 over two seasons), had 160 steals the past three seasons … in other words, he’s exactly what Braves lack, a serious threat to steal and a guy who, even with a low OBP, could still hit leadoff rest of this season because he can be at second or third on any at-bat, via an extra-base hit and/or steal.
3 — Trade for Adam Wainwright or Scott Williamson, or another similar impact reliever (trade some combination of Giles, Langerhans, Sosa, maybe a low-level prospect, which you might have to do because of Giles’ low production this season and $3.85 mill salary, which will go to over $5 mill in arbitration next season). The Cards aren’t likely to part with Wainwright, since they plan to move him to their rotation next season. But you never know. And there’s other impact relievers available.
But I repeat — it’s gotta be an impact reliever, not someone like Pittsburgh’s Salomon Torres (although he could be another nice addition along with a better reliever).
If you haven’t been able to trade Sosa and/or Thomson in any of these deals, move one to the bullpen when you put Chuck James in the rotation next week. If you don’t trade Davies, put him in rotation for the other struggling veteran when Davies is ready after break, and move that guy to the ‘pen, too.
How would the potential lineup look in unlikely event these trades would occur? Glad you asked.
Crawford, LF/1B
Renteria, SS
Chipper Jones, 3B
Andruw Jones, CF
Brian McCann, C
Jeff Francoeur, RF
Wilson Betemit, 2B
Adam LaRoche, 1B or, when Crawford’s at 1B, either Matt Diaz or Scott Thorman in LF
In this scenario, Diaz is the fourth OF and Thorman’s a 1B/OF/PH.
While Diaz has been hot, keep this in mind: He’s 17-for-25 (.680) with two doubles, two triples, two homers, six RBIs and one K in eight games against Marlins, and 17-for-72 (.236) with three doubles, one triple, no homers, 18 K and six RBis in 36 games vs. EVERYONE ELSE.
While I’d hate to lose Langerhans’ defense, he might be attractive to several teams as a fourth outfielder and thus would likely be included in one of the above trades.
OK, back to reality. BoSox in town for three. The Sox are 3-7 with a 6.11 ERA in their past 10 games, so it’ll be interesting to see if the Braves can get their offensive in gear against these guys. Beckett is going Saturday, and he’s always tough on Braves, despite his 4-7 career record against them. He’s got a 2.59 career ERA against them, and went 2-0 with no runs allowed in three starts against them last year, and he’s got a 1.67 ERA in five starts at Turner (though only 1-3 record, which is tough to do).
