AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2006 > June > 08
Thursday, June 8, 2006
Stats don’t lie, folks
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
When the team flew out of Atlanta Wednesday night, one wonders if the players could look down and literally see the layer of lamentation settling over Braves Nation. Probably not, but it’s thick, at least figuratively.
Folks are starting to worry, there’s no denying it. Only the most blindly loyal fans could honestly say today, after that horrid 2-8 homestand, they aren’t seriously concerned now about the Braves’ chances of a 15th consecutive postseason berth, be it as the division champion or wild card.
But I’m here to tell you … well, I’m not here to tell you anything, actually. Nothing that can make you feel a lot better.
I’ll just say there’s no way I’d bet against them just yet, not with only 60 games down and 102 to go. But I am certain they’ll have to make at least one major move with the pitching staff to reel in the Mets (not to mention the Phillies, who can no longer be overlooked in this thing).
Haven’t heard anything new on any trade fronts, so I’m not going to throw out anymore speculation until I get something of substance to report.
Some good news for the Braves: The Astros aren’t nearly as hot as, well, as hot as Houston. The city is typically sauna-like in mid-June, with temps in mid-90s and much higher humidity than Atlanta’s had recently.
The Astros, on the other hand, have lost 11 of their past 15 games and eight of their past 12 at Can-You-Believe-It-Really-Was-Named-Enron Field? The Braves? They’ve dropped 10 of 18 since Brian McCann got hurt, and he’s not going to play at least until Saturday, it sounds like. We’ll see when we get out to the ballpark, but that’s what he and Bobby indicated yesterday.
More good news (well, you hate to say someone getting hurt is good news, but….): Chris Burke dislocated his shoulder last night and is day-to-day. Not that he’s Alfonso Soriano or anything, but perhaps for at least the first couple of games in the series, the Braves won’t have to watch him come to the plate and remember that knife-to-the-cut homer off Joey Devine that ended the division series here.
OK, before I get ready to head to the park, wanted to run a few stats by you guys. It’s something I found interesting, just because I think it shows how we’re all guilty of allowing initial impressions or subjective opinions about someone or something to become cemented in our minds, notwithstanding recent history that might contradict said opinions. OK, that was a long way of saying we get an idea in our brains and won’t be swayed by actual reality, once it’s established.
For example:
Here’s some stats for a couple of leadoff men since May 2:
In 34 games since May 2, one guy has hit .273 with 21 runs, 15 RBis, 16 walks, 23 strikeouts and a .350 on-base percentage. In that same span, also in 34 games, the other guy has hit .228 with 11 runs, 3 RBIs, 10 walks, 11 strikeouts and a .287 OBP.
Marcus Giles is the one who’s hit .273 with 21 runs, 15 RBIs, the .350 OBP. The Cubs’ Juan Pierre is one who’s hit .228 with11 runs, 3 RBIs and a .287 OBP (actually an improvement for Pierre over his first month).
And here’s a couple of first basemen in that same stretch, since May 2:
In 33 games, one first baseman has hit .294 with six homers, 23 RBIs, a .376 on-base percentage and a .539 slugging percentage (.915 OPS). In that same span, another first baseman has hit .272 with six homers, 15 RBIs, a .394 OBP and .509 slugging percentage (.903 OPS).
Adam LaRoche is the one with the higher average, same number of homers, more RBIs, and higher slugging percentage and OPS. Washington’s Nick Johnson had the higher on-base percentage.
I bring up Pierre and Johnson only because those are the names that immediately come to mind among the many that some folks have suggested the Braves trade for to replace their so-called failed leadoff man and the first baseman who can’t do anything right in some fans’ view.
Here’s one other comparison, and we’ll stick with May 2 for continuity’s sake:
Since May 2, one Brave who, by his own admission, has been struggling to drive the ball consistently, has batted .300 with 12 extra-base hits (three homers), 28 runs, 19 RBIs and an .850 OPS, including a .400 on-base percentage. Another Brave in that same stretch has hit .277 with 16 extra-base hits (seven homers), 19 runs, 27 RBIs and a .785 OPS, including a .299 OBP.
Chipper Jones is the one with the .300 average, 19 RBIs and .850 OPS, and Jeff Francoeur has the .277 average, 27 RBIs and .785 OPS.
Again, not trying to make any statement or take a shot at anybody. Francoeur’s driving in runs, and that’s what Bobby wants more than anything from the 6-hole. I just found it interesting, the perceptions some of us have, and how actual stats and production don’t always support those perceptions.
Oh, and by the way, on an entirely unrelated subject, Brayan Pena has shown me something in the past few weeks. Specifically, that he can play for a lot of teams in the majors. The guy has hit at every level in the minors, and now he’s hit .333 (9-for-27) with a homer and just one strikeout in limited opportunities since McCann got hurt. He’s also impressed with his work behind the dish working with pitchers, which was supposedly not a strong part of his game.
That said, the Braves are eagerly awaiting the return of McCann and that beautiful line-drive swing. He was thriving since moving up in the order, hitting over .400 and driving in runs. They need him, but have to be careful not to play him too soon and risk that injury nagging him all season. He didn’t look good in the video I saw of him running out a single at Rome yesterday. But we’ll see.
Talk to you later.
Oh, wait, just one more stat, and it’s damning: Braves pitchers have allowed .299 average and .379 on-base percentage in the late innings of close games. That average is 24 points higher than any other NL team, and that OBP is 18 points higher. And that, my friends, says a lot about why the Braves have been so lousy in one-run games.
Gotta make a move.
