AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2006 > June > 05
Monday, June 5, 2006
Still a chance in the NL (L)East
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
For those of you not old enough to remember the cartoon show “Gulliver’s Travels,” there was a gloomy character, I think his actual name was Glum, who would always say with a tone of utter despair, “We’re doomed. We’re never going to make it.”
I’d guess there are a lot of Braves fans feeling a bit like that after the heinous weekend display at Turner Field, where the Bravos were swept aside in a four-game series against the Diamondbacks, making it six losses in the first seven games of a 10-game homestand that has been utterly wretched.
Alas, folks, it ain’t over. Not yet. I know it’s getting tiresome saying “it’s early” and “the Braves have been in this position before,” so I won’t say it. Besides, it’s not THAT early (35 percent of the season is complete, after all).
If the Braves were in the NL West, I’d say it was over. They’d be in fifth place, behind the San Francisco Circus … I mean the the Giants.
But they’re in the East, which is turning out to be rather pedestrian, what with the Mets refusing to run away from the pack and the Phillies just about as erratic and flawed as the Braves. Unless and until the Mets land another ace to add to their thin rotation, I don’t think they’re going to open a lead too large for the Braves to overcome. Now, that could happen. They could add a stud to go with Pedro and Glavine, in which case only a major injury — David Wright, for instance — in their lineup would probably prevent the Mets from winning the division.
They are simply a better team than the Braves, on balance. But again, with their pitching situation, the Mets aren’t assured of anything. The Braves can reel them in, no question. Not saying they will, but can.
OK, what are the Braves’ biggest problems? We all know the bullpen is bad. Really bad. Reitsma not only isn’t fit for the closer job, but at this point, his psyche is so battered, I don’t know if he’s fit for anything other than mop-up work or middle-relief in blowouts. Maybe he’ll get it turned around with a few solid outings in middle relief, but first Bobby Cox has to admit Reitsma has totally fallen on his face and that it’s time — for his sake, the team’s sake, the tortured fans’ sake — to move the big right-hander to a place where he can’t do any more damage.
The Braves simply have to acquire a proven, hard-throwing reliever who can get strikeouts and close games out, because they’re not good enough to win the division or the wild card with so many one-run losses. Such a trade almost certainly means they’ll have to overpay in the form of a prospect or two that they don’t want to give up, but you know what? It’s time.
The division-title streak is on the line, and there’s no sense in building one of the best farm systems in baseball if you can’t use a piece or two once in a while to fill a hole, even if it’s a trade that you don’t “win” — and the Braves have won enough of them to concede perhaps a small loss in terms of getting value-for-value in a deal when desperate times call for desperate measures. This is getting close to desperate, even though it’s June. Not at desperate yet, but like Stuckey’s or South of the Border, the signs are coming up every freakin’ minute it seems. Desperation, just around the corner.
Move Smoltz back to closer? I say no, for a few reasons. One, he doesn’t want to do it, and he’s earned the right, after four elbow surgeries and much blood (or at least fluid from having his elbow) spilled for this team, to not be asked to do a role he feels compromises both his health and his ability to help the team most in the postseason. I know, I know, you have to get to the playoffs first before he can help there, but just remember how many people _ including Smoltz _ were frustrated when he sat in the bullpen helplessly watching the Braves’ postseasons end when he was the closer.
The man absolutely lives for the biggest games, and the biggest games are in the postseason, when he wants to be in control. Can’t do that as closer if your team doesn’t give you leads.
Here’s a stat: Smoltz, the winningest pitcher in postseason history, is 13-4 with a 2.55 ERA in 27 postseason starts, including seven innings of one-run ball last season in a win against the Astros in the division series, when he pitched with a shoulder so stiff that he could barely raise his arm without excruciating pain. Folks, he’s a rare breed, and he needs to be healthy and ready to take the ball for two starts in a postseason series. If the Braves get there, they can win any series with a healthy Smoltz and Hudson pitching the way he is now. Starters are that big in the postseason, as the Braves have been reminded during their recent playoff losses to Big Unit/Schilling D-Backs, Prior/Wood Cubs, Rocket/Oswalt/Pettitte Astros, etc.
In the past three postseasons as closer, Smoltz made a total of six appearances and was 2-0 with a 2.38 ERA and one save in two opps. ONE SAVE.
The Braves don’t need to move one of their two best starters to the bullpen. If anything, they need to add another elite starter to make sure they have at least two healthy aces for the postseason. If they can get Dontrelle Willis, who’s making $4.35 mill this year, the Braves should do it as soon as possible. The Marlins love prospects, and Willis is still so young and good (don’t care what his numbers say this year) that I’d give up — drum roll, please — Saltalamacchia to get him. I would.
Imagine having Willis, whom I think would get straightened out real quick with a move to the Braves, along with Smoltz and Hudson down the stretch drive and into the postseason?
OK, gotta get out to the park, so I can’t get into a few other things I wanted to discuss. But let me just say, Marcus Giles’ leadoff work isn’t at top of list of things killing the Braves. People, he’s hit .310 with two homers, nine runs, 12 RBIs and a .431 OBP in his past 11 games, with only five strikeouts and eight walks in that span. He’s coming around, but I know people still point to him because they’re trying to find the solution to an offense that looks so inept in some games, so explosive in others (mostly inept the past couple of weeks).
I think much will improve when McCann gets back. With the exception of a few games, the Braves have been bad offensively since May 20, the day he got hurt. It’s not a coincidence. He and Renteria have been their best hitters all season.
I still think Betemit needs to be in the lineup at least 4-5 times a week, mostly in LF but also give him a first-base mitt NOW and try him there. B.J. is giving the Braves next to nothing in 1B platoon with LaRoche, and Langerhans has taken a big step back this year in left. Betemit could also spell Chipper once a week at 3B and Renteria once every 10 days or so at SS.
Finally, the Francoeur honeymoon should end. Why is it that everyone else who slumps gets a “rest” but Francoeur plays every day? He’s got all but two — TWO — at-bats by a Braves RF this year, and has the second-worst OBP in the NL (.260), including a punty .240 vs. right-handers. He’s 12-for-64 (.188) with three RBIs and 16 strikeouts in his past 16 games, and Francoeur’s high RBIs for the season are a direct reflection of the fact that he and Andruw have gotten so many more at-bats with runners in scoring position than anyone else on the team, rather than them being more efficient in those at-bats (they haven’t been).
Fromm the RF position, the Braves are last in the NL in OBP (.262) and only 10th in slugging (.432). Again, Francoeur has every at-bat but two at the position. Try Diaz over there from time to time. Move Jordan out there a time or two and have Betemit play first. Something. Just don’t keep waiting for Francoeur to recapture the magic of the second half last season.
Not to claim I was alone in this opinion, but my biggest concern about this team entering the season was the reliance on so many guys who had less than in a major league lineup. A couple of those, Francoeur and Langerhans, have taken a step back.
OK, out of time. Talk to you later.
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