AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2006 > May > 16
Tuesday, May 16, 2006
Davies a future great?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
While I’m sure plenty of you want to continue mulling the LaRoche matter, I can’t think of much more to say that hasn’t been said.
So while you’re obviously free to debate or comment about him playing last night - frankly, I think Bobby Cox wants to win games and catch the Mets and Phillies, and LaRoche getting booed mercilessly Sunday and again Monday seems like more severe punishment than another four innings on the bench would have been - I’m going to address a couple other matters.
Kyle Davies, who is going on the DL today and who drew the ire of Cox for not mentioning a sore groin yesterday before his start. Davies ended up straining or tearing it in the third inning and is done now for at least 15 days. That’s a big no-no with Cox and most managers, not telling someone when you’re hurt and putting yourself to get seriously hurt and the club in position to have to scramble to find a replacement. But that’s not what I wanted to discuss.
I wanted to discuss Davies’ 2-3 record and 6.12 ERA this season, and 9-9 career record and 5.12 ERA in two seasons. Specifically, does this mean he’s perhaps not as talented and doesn’t have the limitless potential the Braves have said he has?
And I would suggest that there’s no way to say yet. And here’s what I’m basing it on: Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine. While I’m not saying Davies is going to be another Maddux or Glavine - I don’t think there will be another Maddux in our lifetime - I’m just saying, at the same point in their careers, no one could have looked at either Maddux or Glavine and said they’re going to be Hall of Famers someday (and yes, I do believe Glavine will get in; Maddux is a cinch first-ballot guy, obviously).
Davies, 22, has made 29 appearances including 22 starts. He’s 8-7 with a 4.94 ERA in the 22 starts.
So I went back, our of curiosity, to see what two of the Braves’ greatest recent pitchers did at similar points, or how their first couple of seasons transpired. And here’s what I found:
In his first 22 starts, Maddux went 6-11 with a 5.04 ERA, with 144 hits, 52 walks and 81 strikeouts in 123-1/3 innings.
In his first 33 starts, Glavine went 5-17 with a 5.52 ERA and more walks (83) than strikeouts (78).
Davies has a ton of talent, good stuff, great mental makeup (as the scouts, coaches and managers say). He’s going to be good. Will he be great? We just don’t know. Too early to tell. But seeing and hearing him after he gets roughed up, I’d lean toward great someday. Because he cares so much, and he honestly listens and understands what he’s doing wrong and what he needs to do to correct it.
Now it’s just a matter of being able to do those things when the lights go on and the pressure is turned up. Not everyone is a freak like Francoeur or McCann who can excel at 22 against grown men who’ve been in the majors for a decade or more. And with pitchers, it can be even tougher in the early going, when everything is riding on your shoulders. Not to mention when you’re pitching for the hometown team and have so many expectations from friends, family, etc. Not an excuse, just reality.
OK, so what about the near-term? Who to replace him? We’ll find out soon, maybe today but maybe not until later in the week. I’d bet that journeyman Travis Smith, he of the slight frame and spectacles, is the guy for one start, until Horacio Ramirez is ready to come off rehab. Travis was 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA in seven starts at Richmond before getting rocked last night there.
But I wouldn’t expect much from him if he starts a game at Arizona this weekend. Simply because Travis Smith fits the mold of the classic “4-A” pitcher - very good at Triple-A, but just doesn’t have enough stuff or deceptive delivery to do the same things at the big-league level. Sometimes he has a good start or two with a team in a callup, then gets inevitably worse in later games before being sent back down. So if he’s the guy, the Braves will hope to get one good start out of him, at least.
OK, that’s it. Gotta get ready to get to the ballpark. Sorry, but don’t have more time to dissect other issues right now.
The new Drive-By Truckers CD is great, by the way. And so is the Gnarls Barkley effort from Danger Mouse and Cee-Lo (hey, I know the names sound a bit out there, but it’s good, modern R&B). We’ve already raved about the Chili Peppers’ double CD. Get it if you’ve ever liked them; they’re as good or better than ever.
I still suggest all of open minds to buy the Neil Young CD, “Living With War.” Outstanding stuff.
