AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2006 > May > 08
Monday, May 8, 2006
Reasons not to panic
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
So I’m perusing the Internet this weekend and, to my surprise, I see this nugget: “ESPN Research checked and found this: Since the start of the 1991 season, the Braves have never been more than 4-1/2 games out of first on May 7.”
With all due respect to ESPN’s Buster Olney, whom I place at or near the very top of the heap among national guys supplying useful and accurate info, this one left me scratching my head.
To be fair, he’s reporting what the research guys told him, and the statement is technically accurate. And to be clear, I agree the Braves are in trouble because, as I’ve said for weeks, this Mets team might be the most balanced, talented and experienced NL East opponent the Braves have seen since the 1997 Marlins of Sheffield, Alou, Bonilla, K. Brown, Nen, Leiter, Livan, Edgar, etc. (Those Marlins didn’t win the division, but were absolultely confident all season — I know; I covered them — that they could and would beat the Braves in a playoff series, which they did in the NLCS, before going on to win the World Series.)
That said, let’s get back to why that ESPN nugget is misleading, in my view.
My point: When the average fan, one not familiar with all the details of the Braves’ slow starts and midseason rallies during their division-title streak, reads that the Braves may not have been more than 4-1/2 games behind on May 7, that fan might easily infer that the Braves have never been more than 4-1/2 games behind this late in the season. Am I right? Isn’t that what he or she might easily infer?
And that, of course, is untrue. Because while they haven’t been more than 4-1/2 games behind on May 7, the Braves have been farther behind later in the season, and isn’t that more important?
For instance, they were eight games out of first place on June 1, 2001.
Going back to the start of the division streak, they Braves were in fifth place and seven games out of first on May 27, 1992. They were 7-1/2 games behind on June 19, 1993, and 10 games back by July 22 that summer. They were 4-1/2 games behind on June 13, 1995…
My point is, they have been as far or farther behind than 4-1/2 games after May 7, and sometimes well after May 7.
Just thought I’d clarify that. Again, I think Buster is exceptional and his daily blog should be read by all baseball fans. But the research folks gave him a rather misleading stat this time.
Let’s move to pertinent matters on this Braves catch-your-breath day, before entering the humidity of South Florida:
Can the Braves catch the Mets? Of course they can. Unless the Mets trade for Barry Zito well before July 31 (and they won’t), their starting rotation is going to have a real hard time holding off the Braves or Phillies. And if Odalis Perez is traded from the Dodgers to the Mets, that isn’t exactly going to strike fear in the hearts of NL East opponents (he’s won more than 12 games only once in his career).
Their rotation remains shaky after Glavine and Pedro, and Aaron Heilman adds so much to the bullpen that moving him to the rotation would weaken one area considerably while strengthening another only marginally.
Of course, if the Braves don’t start playing a lot better in a lot of ways, they could find themselves not just a significant distance behind the Mets by the All-Star break, but also behind the Phillies. Remember, the Phillies have played the Braves even for the last couple of seasons; they’re not intimidated by Atlanta.
Here’s a few of my current red flags concerning these Braves. Let me know if you agree:
They have the NL’s fourth-lowest team batting average and a league-high 242 strikeouts with only 101 walks, fewer walks than all but the Derrek Lee-less Cubs and stinkin’ Pirates. Nothing speaks more to their lack of plate discipline than this unappetizing combo of many strikeouts, few walks and a low batting average.
Their closer (Chris Reitsma) has a 4.97 ERA, .314 opponents’ average, and almost as many walks (four) as strikeouts (five). When he enters a game, there is something less than a sure-thing feeling. Something far less.
There isn’t a better candidate on the current staff to replace Reitsma (at least not an available candidate; John Smoltz is not going to move back to closer this season).
Marcus Giles is having his most inconsistent season at a most inopportune time, when the Braves need him to be a solid leadoff hitter. With the season nearly one-fifth complete, Braves leadoff hitters (mostly Marcus) are batting .185, which is 25 points worse than any other team’s leadoff hitters and only 10 points better than Braves pitchers (.175). And Giles has swung at 43.8 percent of first pitches, fourth-highest in the NL and entirely out of character for a leadoff hitter. I know they told Marcus not to change anything when he moved from No. 2 to leadoff, but taking a few more pitches might not be such a bad thing at this point.
The Braves are 4-11 with a .230 average and seven one-run losses in their past 15 road games, and that includes 39 hits and 25 runs during the weekend series at N.Y.
The Braves have five players with 25 or more strikeouts. Adam LaRoche has 32 Ks in 95 at-bats, and has struck out once every 3.5 plate appearances, the highest ratio among NL lineup regulars.
LaRoche is 5-for-42 (.119) with one homer and four RBIs in his last 16 games, and his .200 average is fifth-lowest among NL regulars.
Ryan Langerhans, who looked so steady in the first few weeks, is 9-for-45 with one RBI, 15 strikeouts, three walks and no extra-base hits in his past 13 games.
OK, enough with the pessimism. Because despite all the flaws, I actually believe the Braves will win the division. Seriously.
A few reasons:
The starting pitching is better than most and definitely better than the Mets’ starters, in terms of depth (and over 162, that’s most important).
The bullpen is decent in the middle, and I think Schuerholz will do something to address the closer situation if Reitsma doesn’t provide more reason for confidence by July.
Chipper is healthy (knock on wood) and Andruw’s back doesn’t seem like it’ll be an ongoing problem. Edgar Renteria was as good an offseason acquisition as was made by any NL contender, and he’s been a resounding success in the lineup and the clubhouse.
And Francoeur looks like he’s past the worst of it and ready to be a force. He certainly has been the past week. After batting .185 with three homers and nine RBIs in his first 23 games, he’s hit .342 with three homers and 13 RBis in his past eight, while showing the Mets and Shea Stadium denizens just why he’s a special talent with a knack for thriving under pressure.
Francoeur, by the way, is batting just .231 this season, but .344 (11-for-32) with runners in scoring position. And against the Mets, he’s 10-for-22 (.455) with five extra-base hits (three homers) and 11 RBis in his past four games.
Bobby Cox, John Smoltz, Andruw Jones, Chipper Jones, Edgar Renteria. The Mets don’t have anyone except Glavine who’s been through it as much as any of those guys. Not even Pedro.
OK, I’m done rambling. Good to be back.
And did anyone see the Cash vs. Music Row special on CMT this weekend? Outstanding. John Cash should be added to Mt. Rushmore.
