AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2005 > November
November 2005
Team about to get busy
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
OK, folks, I’m sitting in Kansas City Tuesday morning at airport, staring out the window of the terminal at blowing snow and ominous snow clouds. But my flight appears to be on time for 10:15 a.m., so I’ll have to hurry with this blog. I’ve been on vacation, so don’t want to hear any complaints about no blog posted Monday or updates on Furcal, et al. I watched my Jayhawks beat Iowa State in overtime Saturday, so don’t ruin my high.
From the few conversations I’ve had with baseball types in past couple of days, I’m more convinced than ever that Braves are keeping Furcal. Not 100 percent certain, but definitely moved closer to that than the 50-50 proposition I felt it was when I left town a week ago. We’ll see. Not really expecting a decision from him until end of winter meetings next week in Dallas, but I think the Cubs would have to pay far more than they’re willing to offer to pry Furcal away from Bobby Cox and the Braves.
So what would that mean for the future, if the Braves sign Furcal to, say, a four-year contract? What about all the young middle-infield prospects coming up the pipeline? Well, I think if they sign Furcal, Marcus Giles wouldn’t be part of the long-term plans. Maybe he’ll be back this year at more than $4 mill through arbitration but after that, the Braves could move one of the young studs from shortstop to second base and have him ready to step in and play for a few years at a very low salary. And another of the youngsters could move into utility role once Pete Orr becomes arbi-eligible in a couple years and too expensive to keep as a utility guy. But that’s just me speculating, looking ahead.
As for closer, obviously with Billy Wagner and B.J. Ryan off the market and both having signed even bigger deals than anyone projected, it’s going to drive up the price of the remaining options, including two the Braves have considered — Kyle Farnsworth and Trevor Hoffman. The Braves liked Farnsworth enough in his three-plus months with them to feel comfortable with him as their closer for next couple years, but it just depends how high the Yankees and possibly other suitors drive up the price. The Braves are not going to pay $5 mill or so in a long-term deal for a guy who’s only closed for less than a half-season, I’d be willing to bet. Even with all the mileage on Trevor, I’d rather pay him $7 mill for a couple of years with a third-year option, if that’s in the ballpark of what it’d take to get him.
But knowing John Schuerholz, he’s got a couple of options cooking that no one’s even heard about, that he’s been able to keep under wraps. Just remember Dan Kolb last winter — no one from either city or around baseball heard a peep about that trade until moments before it was announced at winter meetings in Anaheim. Keeping anything a secret at winter meetings is closer to miraculous, but Schuerholz and Co. managed to do it.
The Furcal thing is clearly the Braves’ No. 1 priority, and I know they want to get it done so they can fill in their other needs before too many players are signed or traded who might be candidates for spots with the Braves. That’s why I think within 7-10 days we’ll have the answers to Furcal and probably the closer role, and why the Chipper Jones restructure could be announced any day — unless he doesn’t pass his physical, in which case the Braves might not announce anything or acknowledge that it was ever even finalized. But I’m told it has been finalized — that is, the terms agreed upon. It’s just the physical exam holding it up, and that was because of the Thanksgiving holiday. I’d expect it’ll happen very soon, if it’s not already happening at this writing. The Braves may be waiting to make a splash at what they deem the right time, when the announcement won’t be overshadowed by football, etc.
As for other matters — Johnny Estrada will be sought by several teams, but the Braves are wise to hold out until a couple of free agent catchers are signed and the asking price for Estrada can be raised. Some teams — the Mets included — need a catcher and will have to fork over more than they want to if they don’t land a free agent.
It’s about to get busy. The Braves may not have done anything yet, but that means nothing. They hadn’t done anything at this point last year, either. The Mets have just been so busy, it’s made others look like slackers. But Mets are moving way quicker than normal; other teams including Braves aren’t dragging their feet. I mean, nobody really thinks the Yankees are standing pat, do they? Of course not. They’re ready to make a splash with Brian Giles and/or some other marquee names. But it might not happen until we get to Dallas.
It’s a feeling-out process, and once dominoes fall, as they have already with Wagner and Ryan, then all the other moves begin to follow. Agents don’t want to leave money on the table by committing too soon, and most teams don’t like to set the bar for the market, though Omar Minaya and the Mets are clearly an exception. They’re going for it, and that’s got to be commended by their fans. On paper, at least, the Mets would have to be considered the NL East favorite right now, just because of that explosive lineup and Wagner at the back of the ‘pen. But their starting pitching still leaves a lot to be desired, and the Braves probably would like their chances in almost every head-to-head pitching matchup with Mets. So we’ll see. It’s early.
One thing is certain: The Marlins won’t be a factor in NL East, and it’ll be the first year in a while that any team in the division could be written off this early.
I’ll file another blog later in the week, perhaps real soon, after I get more info. Coming off vacation, got to dive back in and make some calls tonight.
Others talk, Chipper walks walk
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
A few scattershot Braves (and other) opinions, observations and predictions on this chilly, rainy and generally dreary Monday, a day that makes me think “pitchers and catchers report” sounds warm and inviting — before the zoysia grass in my yard has even turned completely brown. Ugh.
First things first: Much as a lot of anxious folks would like to see the Rafael Furcal matter resolved soon, it appears the Braves’ free-agent shortstop might not get signed before the winter meetings Dec. 5-8 in Dallas. His agent has been a straight shooter, so I believe him when he tells me he doesn’t expect any real bidding to happen until after Thanksgiving. Agent Paul Kinzer pretty much shut things down last week while checking in with Furcal, Wilson Betemit and other clients during a one-week trip through the D.R. and Puerto Rico. And now with Thanksgiving shortening this week, he doesn’t t expect anything to pop at least until after the holiday, and probably not for a couple of weeks.
Now, a matter that could have profound impact on Furcal and the Braves’ chances of keeping him: Chipper Jones. Say what you will about the veteran third baseman, but those who would let their dislike of Jones or skepticism (understandable and usually warranted) of the idea of athletes’ taking less money to help the team … those who’d let any of that color their view of last week’s gesture by Jones to restructure his contract, you need to be willing to look at the details and stop trying to interpret the facts.
The man did what few, if any, big-ticket athletes have done recently — instead of lip service, he actually did take what will likely amount to about $15 million less over the next three years. And even if the added option year for 2009 vests, he’d make $8 mill to $11 mill that year for a maximum of $48 million over the next four years.
With his two $15 mill options for 2007 and 2008 turned into $11 mill guaranteed years, and next year’s salary dropped from $17 mill to $11 mill, plus a $4 mill signing bonus in January, Chipper is guaranteed $37 million for his work over the next three seasons. Contrast that to the $52 mill he probably — likely — would have made under his contract before the restructuring — $17 mill next year, then two vesting option years at $15 mill apiece, with a $5 mill bonus at the end if both option years vested.
And those options years would’ve vested with a mere 450 plate appearances the previous year — not 450 AT-BATS, as some readers have stated, but 450 plate appearances (walks, sac flies, etc, PLUS at-bats). He had more than 550 plate appearances every year before last year, when he almost got 450 despite being hurt for about six weeks. And he’s had closer to 700 plate appearances than 500 in every other season.
Anyway, fact is, he stepped up because he knows the team can’t fill all its needs, or would have a hard time doing it, without some additional funds. Not when Chipper would have sucked up 21 percent of the entire payroll next seaeson. Now they have some extra cash, and it’s up to the very capable John Schuerholz/Frank Wren tandem to spend it wisely, whether that means re-signing Furcal or getting another stopgap shortstop and a leadoff hitter, but also landing a proven closer. I don’t know how realistic Trevor Hoffman is, but I do think they were serious when they called his reps (but there’s no way Braves are going to pay $25.5 mill for three yaars, which is what his agent asked the Padres after the Padres’ low-balled him with a two-year, $10 mill offer).
Anyway, whether it’s Hoffman or re-signing Farnsworth (that just feels dangerous, doesn’t it?) or going hard after lefty B.J. Ryan, I don’t know. Too hard to tell with Schuerholz, because remember, absolutely no one had Dan Kolb on the radar or in the rumor mill last year until the deal was actually done. No team — NO TEAM — keeps this stuff closer to the vest than the Braves, much as some kind readers forget that sometimes when they wonder why we don’t have as many Braves rumors as the constant regurgitation of names coming out of the Mets and other teams that have leaks — intentional and otherwise — throughout their organizations and a half-dozen papers competing for stories, regardless of how much validity there is to some of those stories.
Anyway, back to Chipper. Why hasn’t it been announced, you might be asking? Did I jump the gun?
No. As I said in my AJC story Friday when I wrote about Chipper’s restructured contract: He still has to pass a physical. With the holiday this week, that might not happen until next week. But that doesn’t change the story. If for some reason doctors find that his foot or something else is too much a concern for an insurance company to cover the two added, guaranteed years on his contract, then the restructuring falls apart and he reverts to the old deal, most likely. But I and my editors — much as the Braves wouldn’t preferred the story not be published until the team announced it — believed that the simple fact that Jones agreed to this restructuring is a story in and of itself. And if he fails a physical (I don’t think he will) that’d be a story, too.
Give the man props, whether you like him or not. Show me another athlete who’s done something similar, and don’t point to all those Arizona D-backs players or others who’ve simply deferred money, many times with interest. Chipper didn’t do that, folks. It’s not deferred. It might have the effect of being deferred, some of it at least, with the additional option year. But he’ll have to have 450 plate appearances the previous year, or average 450 over a few years, for that option to vest, which means he’ll have to still be an every-day lineup player for the option to vest in the fourth year, and will have to be plenty productive for it to vest at higher than $8 mill.
Anyway, he would’ve almost certainly made $52 mill over the next three years before, and he can’t make that now even if he plays four more years under the restructured deal.
I’m not leading the Chipper chorus, either. So don’t bother accusing me of it. That’s tired, that accusation. I’m just pointing to facts, rather than letting personal feelings color my interpretation of the gesture.
OK, couple other things:
Someone in the blog last week — before it was shut down in large part because of those wanna-be comedians who apparently aren’t able to make folks laugh at the office or bar or wherever and have to try here — asked or accused Braves of “letting” Scott Eyre get away to the Cubs. What? Are you serious? You wanted the Braves to give him more than the three years and $11 million the Cubs gave him? Have you checked his stats? That’s practically closer money for a 33-year-old non-closer who’s had one really good year and has a career 4.52 ERA. Braves were one of four finalists, but that money’s crazy, in my opinion, for Eyre.
Another thing: The Marlins — what do you folks think of their pending fire sale? Surprised?
I’m not, having covered the team for seven years before I came to Atlanta four years ago. South Florida just isn’t much of a baseball market. They’ve got a great core audience, but it’s a niche ticket-buying audience, the kind you might see for hockey in a non-traditional hockey market. Not the kind that can support a baseball team for 81 home dates in a bad stadium. Which brings up the other unfortunate part of the South Florida baseball equation — they’re never going to get a stadium built. Period.
Why? Because they were third in line with the cup out, and even before the hurricane damage of the past two seasons — the windstorms, not the “Seventh Floor Crew” kind — politicians and voters slapped that cup away after paying for two — count ‘em — state-of-the-art arenas 15 miles or so apart for the Heat in downtown Miami and NHL Panthers in suburban Broward. Too bad those teams’ owners couldn’t see eye-to-eye and do the responsible thing of sharing an arena. Then there’s former Marlins owner Wayne Huizenga, who basically runs Broward County and has quashed, or had his lobbyists quash, every effort by the Marlins to get a stadium built there, be it through car-rental taxes or whatever (he was also a car-rental giant, or still is, I lose track of the holdings in his kingdom).
Anyway, the Marlins have won two World Series since Atlanta won its only one. Anybody in Braves Nation want to trade place with those Marlins fans?
OK, that’s it. I’ve rambled forever, once again. I think they’re only giving you guys 24 hours to respond to these beat blogs now, unless that policy has already changed again since last week’s was shut down. Anyway, let the booger stories begin (please, I’m joking. only one of those from the obsessive individuals who simply can’t let go of that period of their adolescence).
Oh, before I go: Anyone happen to go see Gov’t Mule this weekend? (If you don’t know who they are, just skip to the next graph). I couldn’t get U2 tix and went to see the Mule at Tabernacle on Saturday. And I have to say, when they brought out Gregg Allman for four or five songs in the second set, I felt a whole lot better about missing U2. It was incredible, especially Allman and Warren Haynes wailing on keyboard and guitar on a stunning “Statesboro Blues.” That’s music.
That’s it. I’m out. Pull for those Jayhawks tonight against Arizona in Maui. The ‘Hawks are awful young, but by December will be a force. Rock Chalk.
Furcal talks to heat up
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
GMs and agents, start your BlackBerrys.
Now that baseball team officials and player reps have had the weekend to recover from last week’s meetings and hotel lobby loitering in Palm Springs — OK, that doesn’t sound rough — negotiations figure to begin in earnest for key free agents and for the many teams looking to improve via the trade route.
Braves shortstop Rafael Furcal is in one of only a handful of premier free agents, and he has the good fortune — soon, literally — of having not one, but two big-market teams ready to bid for his servives (and that’s not including the Braves, who are no longer a big-market team in terms of payroll, and also aren’t ready to get into a bidding war for Furcal if the price goes where his agent hopes it’ll go).
Agent Paul Kinzer, after a weekend spent like many other dads — watching college football on TV with his son — will get down to brass tacks, or something like that, beginning today. He plans to talk to the Cubs and Braves, and perhaps the Mets and another team or two, and possibly listen to the first true offers for his client Furcal. So far, he’s only talked parameters and has a good feeling about the possibility of getting the five-year deal he hopes for the 28-year-old leadoff man/shortstop who’s coming off an impressive season and is the only free agent of his billing on the market (both a strong shortstop and leadoff man).
Forget anything you read about the Yankees and center field. That was a joke taken the wrong way by a reporter at the GM meetings. Yanks aren’t interested in Furcal playing CF for them.
His most likely destination, in my view, remains the Cubs, only because they seem most likely to give him a five-year deal and pay him $9 mill or more to play his preferred SS. As hopeful as they’ve gotten their fans about Furcal, it’d be hard to explain to them how they lost him because of a $1 mill or so a year and because they wouldn’t go five years, only four. In other words, the Cubs need to sign Furca after identifying him as their No. 1 priority.
The Mets want him bad, but they want him to play 2B, and Furcal isn’t going to do that unless they pay him a lot more than the suitors who would keep him at SS. Another team or two could get involved soon, if this goes the way of so many other free-agent journeys.
The Braves would love to keep Furcal, but I strongly doubt they’d give him more than a three-year deal with a fourth-year option, or possibly, possibly a four-year deal. But not a five.
They are weary of tying up the shortstop position for so long with a few prospects in the pipeline, a one who could be ready now (Tony Pena Jr., good glove but not great offense), another in a year or two (slick-fielding and improving hitter Luis Hernandez, and dynamic talent/Cuban defector Yunel Escobar), and potentially the best of the bunch in a few years (17-year-old phenom Elvis Andrus, yet another Venezuelan glove man, this one with a first name seemingly designed for stardom in the American South).
If the Braves were to sign Furcal for, say, four years, they would either be trading him or those prospects, one by one, over the next few years. But that’s getting waaaay ahead of ourselves. As they say, these things tend to work out. Players get hurt, or switch positions, or whatever.
Point is, I can see why the Braves want Furcal so badly now— he cut his errors nearly in half last year, has the best infield arm in baseball, and the Braves simply have no other obvious, viable leadoff hitter in the organization ready to step in and do anything remotely similar to what Furcal’s done since 2000.
But I can also see why they’re reluctant or even refuse to pay him $9 million a year for more than three years guaranteed. With an $80 mill payroll, of which $30 mill is already allocated for the two Joneses, and Hampton’s full salary on the payroll in 2007 after he spends 2006 on the DL … well, there are legit reasons to not want to commit another $10 mill at a position the Braves believe they’ll have covered and covered well — not to mention cheaply — for a while after the first of the prospects is ready.
Whither Wilson Betemit, you say? Well, Betemit could be the man.
The Braves still aren’t sure he’s ready to play everyday shortstop, but he’s making a case by following up a solid season for Atlanta with a stunning season of winter ball for Escogido in Dominican Republic. Last I heard, he was hitting about .350 with five homers in 60-some at-bats, including a grand slam last week. He’s tearing it up in a league that isn’t exactly the Arizona Fall League; the Dominican parks aren’t hitters parks, for the most part, and he’s playing against plenty of past, present and future major leaguers, not kids (not to demean the Arizona Fall League, but it seemed everybody out there hit .300 with power).
But is Betemit a leadoff hitter? No. And neither is Giles. Maybe the Braves take a chance and throw one of them in there, or try Kelly Johnson or Ryan Langerhans at leadoff. But none is proven or perfectly suited for it, and Betemit hasn’t shown he can play every day, either.
Which is why the Braves have discussed possible trades for Tampa Bay’s Julio Lugo or possibly Houston’s Adam Everett. Everett isn’t exactly a pulse-raising commodity, but is solid with the glove. He’s hardly a leadoff type, however, with a .305 career on-base percentage and .248-11-54 production last year with only 26 walks in 549 at-bats. Yikes.
But Everett made only $445,000 last season and is eligible for arbitration; the Astros have offrered him, but not sure how much interest Braves have in him. They do like Lugo, however, and he’s coming off a solid season (.295-6-57) in which he posted a career-high .362 OBP, including a .286 average and .366 OBP in 217 at-bats from the leadoff spot (nearly 20 points higher than Furcal’s OBP).
One other BIG factor in Lugo’s favor with Braves: He’s only under contract for one more year at $4.95 million, which would give the Braves a fill-in SS/leadoff guy for one year without blocking the path of their shortstop prospects.
Gonna be interesting. It’ll start heating up today, and Kinzer thinks Furcal stuff could be resolved in a couple of weeks, not stretch all the way through the winter meetings into mid-December. Some agents believe there’s going to be a flurry of trades this winter, all the way to Christmas, because of the lack of top free agents on the market. Once those free agents — Konkero, Furcal, Burnett, Millwood, Damon — are slotted with teams, many other teams will try to fill their needs via trades, because there will be more quality available there rather than what’s left on the free-agent market.
Regarding the Braves’ other biggest-name free agent, Kyle Farnsworth: The Braves are interested in keeping him, but only if he’s affordable. His last team before Atlanta, the Detroit Tigers, might be the only team willing to give Farnsworth anything close to what he hopes to get, because not many teams seem to be looking at him as a closer; rather, they see him as a setup guy and possible closer.
The Tigers, though, saw him shine in the closer role for part of the summer before trading him to Atlanta when he showed no interest in the three-year offer for a little over $10 mill that the Tigers offered him.
The Tigers might be willing to go to about $12 mill for three years now, and that might be longer and more money than the Braves are willing to part with for a guy who’s been a closer for less than half a season, and came apart in the first truly pressure-filled opportunity he faced for the Braves, in Game 4 of the division series. Especially if the Braves could get, say, Todd Jones for two years at under $6.5 million total.
OK, that’s it. Talk amongst yourselves. I’ll get back with a post later Monday, probably, after seeing how things went with Kinzer and Furcal’s suitors today.
Writing’s on the wall: Adios, Furcal
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The writing is on the wall, so don’t be surprised if by the weekend Rafael Furcal has a four-year, $38 million (or more) offer from the Cubs and/or Mets and the Braves are basically saying goodbye to their leadoff hitter and cannon-armed shortstop.
When John Schuerholz said this morning that he had no scheduled meeting with agent Paul Kinzer, that it would happen when it happen, it sent a signal _ at least to me _ that the Braves are already planning to replace Furcal. If for some reason he doesn’t get what his agent’s expecting him to command on the open market and the Braves are comfortable going to, say, $8 mill per year, well, maybe they’ll welcome him back. But that seems highly unlikely at this point.
As far as how they’ll replace him, still no solid buzz or rumors circulating around the GM meetings, which got underway here today at Indian Wells, but have been thus far uneventful. I keep seeing Julio Lugo’s name mentioned by bloggers, and it does make some sense, since the Devil Rays don’t want to pay him and have other needs to fill.
Just had a conversation with Peter Gammons and a New York writer and mentioned Lugo as possibility to replace Furcal, and both of them _ for what it’s worth _ said they liked him, good player, etc. I only mention it because they’ve seen him a ton, being in the AL East, where Lugo’s played since coming over from Houston in 2003.
My only concern with Lugo is that his .295 average, 39 stolen bases and .362 on-base percentage this season were so much better than most of his other seasons, and I’m not certain that’s what we could expect, especially if he switches leagues again. In the previous four seasons, he didn’t bat higher than .275, averaged just over 13 stolen bases, and didn’t have an OBP higher than .338. Those are not good numbers, folks. But maybe he turned a corner. That’s a gamble the Braves would have to be willing to take. Then again, if they could get him for a year or two, just long enough to hold the fort until one of their stud young shortstops is ready, then Lugo or someone of similar ilk might be the answer they’re looking for.
The thing the Braves have going for them in a big way during this week and this winter is so much strength from which to make trades. The Yankees would kill to have expendable young players and prospects like the Braves have; the Braves have four or five high-quality catchers in their system, and some teams don’t have one. They have 6-7 quality middle-infield prospects; most teams don’t have more than one or two.
But if you’re going to work under an $80 million payroll, you have to have good young players. The Braves have hit a homer many times over in that regard. They couldn’t have asked for more than they got from young players this year. No team could ever expect to have 18 rookies during a season and reach the postseason. Much credit for that, of course, goes to Bobby Cox, who is almost too good for the Braves’ own good. By that, I mean, they feel like this $80 million payroll provides a “sweet spot,” in the words of prez Terry McGuirk, meaning the mix of young and older players that an $80 mill payroll requires is also a mix that sparks the fans and keeps things lively in the dugout and clubhouse.
But the other side of that, the other argument, is that with any other manager, using 18 rookies during the season would probably have spelled disaster. The Braves know whichever players they give Cox, he’ll get max effort out of them. They perform better, time and time again, for Bobby at the major league level, than they did in the minors. That’s crazy, how often that happens with the Braves. And that’s mostly Cox.
For you Cox-bashers, you’ll like this. I literally just got interrupted while writing this blog by a phone call from — and I’m not trying to name-drop here, honestly — Scott Boras, who was upset with something I wrote today. But in the course of the conversation, Boras got around to talking about Cox and said he’s “the most underpaid person in baseball, and you can quote me on that.” He considers Cox the best talent evaluator in the business, bar none. And Boras also said he sees the postseason a bit differently than some (i.e. fans).
But hey, I got off on a tangent there. Boras threw me off my game temporarily. The man can certainly let you have it when he feels strongly about something. But there’s something to taking a call from Boras and having him unload on you. Because he always has a point, and he’s usually got a valid one. He just hates to look bad in print. So would I.
OK, back to meetings. I’ll let you know if I hear any juicy rumors, but just haven’t heard any year. Oh, and Francoeur finished third in rookie of year balloting. There should be a story posted on our website now that I just finished.
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