AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2005 > November > 07
Monday, November 7, 2005
Writing’s on the wall: Adios, Furcal
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The writing is on the wall, so don’t be surprised if by the weekend Rafael Furcal has a four-year, $38 million (or more) offer from the Cubs and/or Mets and the Braves are basically saying goodbye to their leadoff hitter and cannon-armed shortstop.
When John Schuerholz said this morning that he had no scheduled meeting with agent Paul Kinzer, that it would happen when it happen, it sent a signal _ at least to me _ that the Braves are already planning to replace Furcal. If for some reason he doesn’t get what his agent’s expecting him to command on the open market and the Braves are comfortable going to, say, $8 mill per year, well, maybe they’ll welcome him back. But that seems highly unlikely at this point.
As far as how they’ll replace him, still no solid buzz or rumors circulating around the GM meetings, which got underway here today at Indian Wells, but have been thus far uneventful. I keep seeing Julio Lugo’s name mentioned by bloggers, and it does make some sense, since the Devil Rays don’t want to pay him and have other needs to fill.
Just had a conversation with Peter Gammons and a New York writer and mentioned Lugo as possibility to replace Furcal, and both of them _ for what it’s worth _ said they liked him, good player, etc. I only mention it because they’ve seen him a ton, being in the AL East, where Lugo’s played since coming over from Houston in 2003.
My only concern with Lugo is that his .295 average, 39 stolen bases and .362 on-base percentage this season were so much better than most of his other seasons, and I’m not certain that’s what we could expect, especially if he switches leagues again. In the previous four seasons, he didn’t bat higher than .275, averaged just over 13 stolen bases, and didn’t have an OBP higher than .338. Those are not good numbers, folks. But maybe he turned a corner. That’s a gamble the Braves would have to be willing to take. Then again, if they could get him for a year or two, just long enough to hold the fort until one of their stud young shortstops is ready, then Lugo or someone of similar ilk might be the answer they’re looking for.
The thing the Braves have going for them in a big way during this week and this winter is so much strength from which to make trades. The Yankees would kill to have expendable young players and prospects like the Braves have; the Braves have four or five high-quality catchers in their system, and some teams don’t have one. They have 6-7 quality middle-infield prospects; most teams don’t have more than one or two.
But if you’re going to work under an $80 million payroll, you have to have good young players. The Braves have hit a homer many times over in that regard. They couldn’t have asked for more than they got from young players this year. No team could ever expect to have 18 rookies during a season and reach the postseason. Much credit for that, of course, goes to Bobby Cox, who is almost too good for the Braves’ own good. By that, I mean, they feel like this $80 million payroll provides a “sweet spot,” in the words of prez Terry McGuirk, meaning the mix of young and older players that an $80 mill payroll requires is also a mix that sparks the fans and keeps things lively in the dugout and clubhouse.
But the other side of that, the other argument, is that with any other manager, using 18 rookies during the season would probably have spelled disaster. The Braves know whichever players they give Cox, he’ll get max effort out of them. They perform better, time and time again, for Bobby at the major league level, than they did in the minors. That’s crazy, how often that happens with the Braves. And that’s mostly Cox.
For you Cox-bashers, you’ll like this. I literally just got interrupted while writing this blog by a phone call from — and I’m not trying to name-drop here, honestly — Scott Boras, who was upset with something I wrote today. But in the course of the conversation, Boras got around to talking about Cox and said he’s “the most underpaid person in baseball, and you can quote me on that.” He considers Cox the best talent evaluator in the business, bar none. And Boras also said he sees the postseason a bit differently than some (i.e. fans).
But hey, I got off on a tangent there. Boras threw me off my game temporarily. The man can certainly let you have it when he feels strongly about something. But there’s something to taking a call from Boras and having him unload on you. Because he always has a point, and he’s usually got a valid one. He just hates to look bad in print. So would I.
OK, back to meetings. I’ll let you know if I hear any juicy rumors, but just haven’t heard any year. Oh, and Francoeur finished third in rookie of year balloting. There should be a story posted on our website now that I just finished.
