AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2005 > October > 17
Monday, October 17, 2005
Want better play? You better pay
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Although technically there is no reason the Braves can’t wait until December to re-sign Rafael Furcal as a free agent, in reality they need to get it done before he hits the open market, if they are truly intent on signing him. That means the Braves need to sign him between now and the end of the 15-day free-agent filing period that starts the day after the World Series. After that 15-day period, their exclusive negotiating rights end and other teams can start throwing money at Furcal. And believe me, they will.
His agent said that because Furcal has gotten to this point, so close to free agency without the Braves signing him to a multi-year deal when they had ample opportunities over the past few years, that it only makes sense for the player to file for free agency now and see what’s out there. Can’t say I blame him one bit, considering Furcal could’ve gotten seriously injured while playing on a one-year deal this past season and he’d be out in the cold now.
In other words — and this is me saying this, not Furcal or his agent — if a player gets to this point, he’s basically taken all the risks himself — that’s the system — playing on one-year contracts, while the club hasn’t made him a multi-year offer that would’ve given a player valuable to their organization some sense of assurance beyond the present season, some sense of insurance as a reward for all that he’s done for the team.
To be clear, I’m not just talking about the Braves, but about any team with such a productive player as he nears free agency. In this particular case, I know the Braves could have gotten Furcal a year or more ago to a four- or five-year deal for well below the $8-9 mil a year he’s probably going to command now. But hey, from the team’s perspective, given budgetary constraints and/or the chance that Furcal could get hurt or have off-field problems or whatever, they may have decided it was more prudent to wait.
If so, now they’ll pay the price for waiting, if they are to keep him.
Furcal loves the Braves and particularly Bobby Cox. He’d much prefer to stay with Atlanta. But at what cost? He’s not going to take a big discount to stay with the Braves. If the Cubs, Mets or someone else offers him $40 mil over five years, then don’t expect Furcal to accept a five-year, $35 mil or four-year, $30 mil offer to stay with the Braves (and I’m just throwing out hypothetical numbers to make a point). With his biggest strengths — speed and a cannon arm — both susceptible to injuries, including the worrisome shoulder, if you’re Furcal you can’t assume there will be another big contract at the end of this one.
You gotta get what you can now, unless there’s just not that much difference in offers and you clearly prefer your present situation, not having to move, etc.
Is it important, even crucial, to keep him? Yes, talk to any other Brave and they’ll tell you it is. And I agree, for two reasons: To replace him, you not only have to get a top-quality defensive shortstop, but a legit leadoff man. If it were only a matter of replacing his defense, they could turn the job over to Wilson Betemit, who’s no Furcal in terms of overall defensive skills, but is solid nonetheless.
But Betemit is no leadoff man or top-half-of-the-order hitter, and the person who wrote in some online report that the Braves wouldn’t have much offensive dropoff from Furcal to Betemit was either insane or hadn’t watched 10 Braves games this season to compare the two players. There’s no comparison. Betemit might hit .285-.300 in a full season at shortstop, but he’s got no speed and doesn’t even have Furcal’s power. So other than not being able to get as many infield hits, extra-base hits or one-tenth as many stolen bases … yeah, not much dropoff at all.
The Braves have good shortstop prospects in the minors, perhaps more than any other organization has (middle infielders and catchers, the Braves have in abundance). But none are clearly ready to step in next season and produce, at least not offensively. And the Braves don’t have enough offense to be able to afford an all-glove, no-stick shortstop, at least with their current personnel at other positions.
The Braves would need to sign a leadoff man, and where would he play if not at shortstop? The outfield is basically set; I don’t think you’re going to find a leadoff man to play left field and be affordable, at least not to play it well enough and hit well enough to warrant dropping Langerhans from that spot. But that’d be about the only place to look, it seems.
Marcus Giles is going to make at least double his $2.4 mil 2005 salary next season because of his arbitration status, but the only way you could even think about not bringing him back is if you apply that money to Furcal and are assured of getting Furcal. It’d be a little easier to find someone to hit second and play second base, I think, than to replace Furcal, though neither option is attractive (let’s face it, the Brave are nowhere last season without both Furcal and Giles hitting in front of the Joneses).
Easy for me to spend someone else’s money, but I think the Braves have to buck up, allocate the $6-7 mil they’ll get for insurance for Hampton next season toward Furcal, and if necessary raise the payroll just slightly from $80 mil to about $84-85 mil in order to keep Furcal and Giles and improve the bullpen. We’ll get into the closer situation later, but unless Farnsworth can be signed for $4 mil or less (which seems unlikely, but we’ll see how the market goes), then you turn elsewhere.
And just a name to consider: Georgia resident Todd Jones, who had a helluva year for the Marlins and has told folks in Florida that the only two places he’d want to go are Atlanta or stay with the Marlins. No, he’s no Billy Wagner (who also wants to pitch here), but Jones could be signed for less than half of Wagner’s expected $9 mil asking price, and maybe the Braves could get Jones to agree to a two-year, incentive-laced deal for under $3.5 mil or so annually. Maybe, I stress.
Of course, with the way the Dan Kolb fiasco unfolded throughout the 2005 season, Braves fans — and team officials — might be understandably leery of giving a lot of money to a guy who’s only had one or two great seasons in the closer role and done it in less-than-demanding markets.
