AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2005 > August > 31 > Entry
DEL.ICIO.USAstros least of playoff worries
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
In all the discussion about the Braves having the potentially formidable task of facing starting rotation-rich Houston (if the Astros win the wild card) in the first round of the playoffs, what has been largely overlooked is another, perhaps even more ominous possibility.
St. Louis.
Yes, the Cardinals, the team with the best record in the NL by a wide margin, the team hungry to take the final step after getting trounced in the World Series last season by the Red Sox. The team with Cy Young candidate Chris Carpenter and, at least in my opinion, clear MVP frontrunner Albert Pujols. The team with arguably the best, most die-hard fans in baseball.
The reason we haven’t spent a lot of time discussing the possibility of the Braves facing the Cardinals in the first round is simple: It appeared the Braves would start to distance themselves from the rest of the NL East by now, once they got five games ahead a few weeks back. But it didn’t happen.
The Braves went 6-6 on their last homestand, when everyone thought they’d beat up on NL West teams. And at the same time, Florida, Philly and even the Mets all started playing better. Much better. And the Nationals didn’t fade, the way many assumed they would down the stretch.
The result is, the Braves have a month of crucial games against almost exclusively NL East teams coming up. Plenty of time for another NL East team to catch them and pass them, if the Braves keep muddling along at .500 on the road and, lately, .500 at home.
And if the Braves finish second in the NL East and win the wild card, they’d have to face the team with the best record in the NL, the Cardinals. And the Cards would obviously have home-field advantage (not that having home-field advantage in the postseason has meant much good for the Braves in recent years anyway).
There’s also an even uglier option. One that seems unspeakable among Braves fans: Two teams could pass Atlanta. Then the Braves wouldn’t have to worry about a first-round opponent; there wouldn’t be one.
Personally, I still think the Braves will hold on and clinch this thing. But they can’t be comfortable looking behind them and seeing all those other NL East teams sitting right there, nipping at their heels.
Your thoughts?
Comments
Commenting is now closed for this entry.
By Fabrizio Di Muro
August 31, 2005 04:06 PM | Link to this
DOB - Good article. I too think that the Braves will hold on. I think we match up well with the Cards, although they do have the better offense and the better bullpen. Honestly, with having used 16 rookies, and having sixteen rookies with at least 100 ABs (no team with more than 4 has even made the playoffs), winning the division and making the playoffs would be huge accomplishments. Of course I’m hoping for more….. Also, I don’t see how Albert Pujols would be the clear frontrunner for the MVP when AJ is holding down 2/3 of the Triple Crown!!
By Kirby
August 31, 2005 04:51 PM | Link to this
DOB - Yes, I think the Braves will win the division, but prospects for the post-season are not good, no matter who they play. Sosa pitched very poorly yesterday, and does not look like a #3 or #4 starter to me right now.
And go figure this…the relief pitching yesterday was excellent, but the hitters left 13 runners on base. What a wasted opportunity.
Let’s face it. The team is playing mediocre ball this month, not a good time to be doing so.
FABRIZIO - Re: Pujols and Andruw, you have to look deeper at the numbers. Pujol’s OBP is .425 to Andruw’s .356; Pujol’s Slugging % is .610 to Andruw’s .588; Pujols has 76 walks and 56 strikeouts, while Andruw has 56 walks and 93 strikeouts. I admire Andruw’s magnificent defensive skills, but he’s still a home run/strike out hitter. Pujols is superior with the bat.
By T Robb
August 31, 2005 05:15 PM | Link to this
Kirby: Yes, but in addition to leading the league in HR and RBI and making room for his ninth consecutive gold glove, Andruw has meant everything to his team this year. They’d be dead without him.
So while I’m one of the guys, like you, who looks hard at OBP and secondary stats, this year I go with Andruw.
Another one today! He may hit about 12 in September and remove all debate…
By Tony
August 31, 2005 05:24 PM | Link to this
If Andruw hits 50 HR and the Braves win the division…then I don’t see how he doesn’t win the MVP.
I guess those Steve Traschel rumors will get hotter. Is Furcal hurt? Sosa and Ramirez not looking too hot or is it that the Nationals had been shutout for the past 23 innings before they got to Atlanta.
By GT
August 31, 2005 06:05 PM | Link to this
Wild card may be the ticket. We have certainly tried it the other way. The wild card out of the National League hasn’t done that poorly. I hoping we don’t stop the win streak at 13 for superstitional reasons,and we’ll have to go through St. Louis sometime if we are getting to the world series. It seems like when you catch these teams in a short series you do better as the underdog.
By warren
August 31, 2005 07:00 PM | Link to this
For me Sosa will do fine in hixt games, the reason he got the lost yesterday is because of the offense and not his pitching. Also, I’d like to face the Cardinals in a 5 game series than 7. A shorter series is better if you’re the underdog. That would be similar to what the Cubs and Astros did to us in the past.
By David O'Brien
August 31, 2005 07:11 PM | Link to this
Andruw’s having his best year, and a helluva year by any standards. Many years, it’s an MVP season (and still might be, particularly if he hits 50 homers and drives in 120 or so; those numbers do jump off the page).
But I just think when you look at OPS and averages with runners in scoring position, Pujols is so far-and-away better than Andruw that it tilts it in his favor. And while Andruw hasn’t had a lot of support because of injuries, the Cardinals have also had a lot of injuries to key players.
And while a healthy Chipper gives teams a couple of Braves they’re not going to let beat them, or try not to let beat them, with the Cardinals it’s always Pujols that opponents try to pitch around and make others beat them.
Pujols has had MVP-caliber seasons every year he’s been in the majors, but has had Barry Bonds to compete against. I think voters will look at that, as well.
I should point out, I’m not voting on the award this year because our paper’s writers are no longer permitted to vote for any of the awards. So my opinion isn’t going to affect the voting one way or the other.
Right now, I’d predict 1. Pujols, 2. Jones, 3. Lee, just based on conversations I’ve had to writers and stuff I’ve read when we’re in other cities, etc.
By Fabrizio Di Muro
August 31, 2005 08:38 PM | Link to this
Kirby - Let me remind you that the award is called the Most Valuable Player, not the Most Valueable Hitter. When you factor in Andruw’s defense as well as the fact that he carried the team when Chipper was out, along with the fact that he is currently holding 2/3 of the triple crown, a good arguement can be made for Andruw as MVP. The slugging %s are almost equal, and so are the extra base hits (I think AJ has more extra base hits). So that means that Pujols is hitting more singles than Andruw Jones. But how many hits has Andruw Jones saved this year — probably more than the difference in singles and walks between him and Pujols. Hence a good arguement can be made.
By Joe Roman
August 31, 2005 09:15 PM | Link to this
A competitive divisional race is the best thing that could happen to both to the Braves and baseball fans in general. All teams have better odds of a successful post season if getting there is in doubt. Nothing is certain. If Edmunds has knee trouble, the Cards are not the same team. On the other hand, Houston is exactly the same team that stunk it up the first three months of the season. Both leagues and all divisions but one are a crap shoot this year. I like it that way. I think any real fan would.
By True Braves Fan
August 31, 2005 09:32 PM | Link to this
Does anyone besides me remember when Braves players laying down a successful sacrifice bunt was routine? How many runs (and possibly games) have been lost this year because of our inability to successfully bunt?
By dannycardwell
September 1, 2005 09:59 AM | Link to this
andrew wont get the mvp simply because of the way the voters see things. sure albert is a great player. but he also has the best hitting team around him. theres always people on base in front of him and good hitters behind him. he simply gets better pitches to hit. what does andrew have behind him? a #5 hitter that should have been# 7 or# 8 since the allstar break.i would take my chances with francouer behind andrew, and langerhans behind him. johnson would be in richmond for another year or two. on a good note, farnsworth looked good, very good. i hope thats one problem area solved if bobby will just show patience and leave him in there.
By Jeremy
September 2, 2005 08:19 AM | Link to this
Keep doubting the heart of the Astros. It worked for you last year. ;)
By glennbo
September 2, 2005 10:09 AM | Link to this
DOB, The Cards have 9 hitters with 40 or more RBI. The Braves have 6. Pujols has 28 RBI more than the next highest Cardinal batter. Andruw has 44 more. Pujols plays 1B. Andruw plays CF, where a strong defense up the middle makes mediocre pitching staffs a lot betterer. Pujols is a defensive WIP with no gold gloves. Andruw is going for, gulp,his 9th. If Pujols goes down, the Cards still have the best team in the National League, or at least make the playoffs with that pitching staff and a division with only 1 teamabove .500. If the Braves loose Andruw, that’s it. No playoffs. Team ERA goes up. Rookies don’t play up to potential. Brian Jordan is the starting left fielder. Francouer gets injured in Hurricane Katrina. The Braves finish the season under .500 for the first time in 15 years. Attendance drops to 1.5 million. AOL/Time-Warner sells the team to a Venezuelen Oil magnate and the Bravos become the first South American MLB Franchise. Pat Robertson then leeps into action with regard to the Venezuelen crisis. So you see, we’re dealing with a lot of $#!+ if Andruw doesn’t step up.
By Carroll
September 2, 2005 03:17 PM | Link to this
Heart had nothing to do with the Astros last year! We had a sucky team with sucky pitchers. Plain and simple. By the way, how far did your Astros go after they got by the annual first round whipping boys?! Beating the Braves in the first round is like riding the community bicycle….almost everyone’s done it. So come down off your high horse already!