Hampton is gone, while Peavy is …
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Come back … no, good riddance … Please stay, we need you … no, please just go.
Does that pretty much summarize the polarizing presence that was Mike Hampton?
While most of his Braves teammates, and apparently a third of our readers, wanted Mike Hampton back, the poll on our AJC.com Braves page indicates that fully two-thirds of voting fans were pleased to see the injury-plagued lefty hit the road.
More than anything else, I think that says something about Hampton’s personality - teammates knew him well, and all of them I talked to really liked having him around, despite the fact he was hurt and/or recovering from surgeries for most of the time for the past three seasons.
Most fans only know what they’ve read or heard about him, that he was a nice guy with a great sense of humor and a body that repeatedly broke down.
I think fans have good reason for being glad Hampton is gone.
Hear me out. In the past I’ve said I hoped he’d be back, but admittedly that was largely for selfish reasons: Folks, Mike Hampton is a great quote and was good for at least one laugh a day — and usually several — with a putdown directed at a teammate or one of the broadcasters or beat writers.
But let’s be honest: What were the chances that Hampton was going to remain as fit and effective in 2009 as he was in the second half of the 2008 season, after it took him nearly three full years between major league starts to get healthy.
To refresh memories: Hampton did not make a start, not a single major league start, between Aug. 19, 2005 and July 26, 2008. Two elbow surgeries and various back, leg and side injuries sidelined him for 35 months.
He was with the Braves for six seasons, and was DL’d for about half of that period.
The Braves wanted him back, but not to fill one of their top-of-the-rotation spots. GM Frank Wren made that clear the day after the regular season ended, when I asked him if Hampton, John Smoltz or Tom Glavine would possibly be one of the two proven, veteran pitcher he sought to add this winter.
No, Wren said. If any or all of those three veterans returned in 2009, they would be in addition to the two frontline pitchers the Braves hoped to land. The Braves weren’t counting on any of the trio to fill a frontline rotation spot, one of the two spots they’d still like to fill in order to slot Jair Jurrjens in the No. 3 position where such a talented-but-young pitcher would ideally fit in a strong starting rotation.
Have things changed since then? Perhaps. The market clearly isn’t what the Braves hoped it might be vis-à-vis the pursuit of two frontline starters. There were only a handful of free agents available who fit the bill or even came close, and there were more than a few teams in pursuit of those limited arms.
One of them is already gone, Ryan Dempster having re-upped with the Cubs.
And he was one of those who “came close” to fitting the bill more than actually fitting it fully, given that, before going 17-6 with a 2.96 ERA in 206-2/3 innings in 2008, five seasons had passed since Dempster started more than 20 games, won more than five or pitched as many as 116 innings (he was hurt or relieving in the interim).
The remaining field includes CC Sabathia, whose price tag puts him out of the Braves’ range (they’re not going to commit approximately one-quarter of their annual payroll to a starting pitcher, even if Sabathia’s the best one available and arguably one of the best three or four starters in the game.)
That leaves some guy named Jake Peavy (you didn’t think we could go another whole blog without talking about him, did you?) and free agents A.J. Burnett and Derek Lowe as reliable front-line starters who are clearly available.
The Braves have inquired about a few other aces - most notably Houston’s Roy Oswalt and San Francisco’s Matt Cain - to see if they might be available, and so far haven’t received favorable replies in those pursuits.
As for Lowe, the market for the 35-year-old innings-eater is lined with deep-pocketed pursuers including the Red Sox, his old team. The Scott Boras client could end up getting a four- or five-year contract worth perhaps than $15 million annually.
Lowe, a Type A free agent who was offered arbitration by the Dodgers, has indicated that going to a winning team is his main priority, a team with a chance to be in the playoffs every year for the length of his contract. If the Red Sox really want him, it’s hard for me to envision another team except possibly the Yankees getting between Lowe and a reunion with Boston.
Those two might be the only ones comfortable spending the kind of dollars it’ll take to sign Lowe, who, let’s face it folks, has a 126-107 career record (and 85 saves) with a 3.75 ERA, very good numbers but hardly world-beater stuff.
We’re talking about a guy who has been more than three games above .500 just once in the past five seasons, when he was 16-8 with a 3.63 ERA for the Dodgers in 2006. He’s 26-25 over the past two seasons, albeit with a strong 3.24 ERA in 2008.
In Lowe’s last season with the Red Sox in 2004, he was 14-12 with a 5.42 ERA. And in his first with the Dodgers in 2005, he was 12-15 with a 3.61 ERA and allowed 28 homers.
Reliable, undoubtedly (after Tom Glavine got hurt last year, it left Lowe as the only active major league pitcher with 10-plus seasons and no DL stints). But if you’re the Braves, is this the the guy you want to give the largest contract you ever gave a pitcher?
Probably not, which is probably why we’ve heard no indications they’re actively pursuing him, despite the near-unanimous view expressed by Braves players at the end of last season that Lowe was the guy, or one of the two or three, the Braves should go after hardest.
That was probably a reflection both of the players’ frustrations over the litany of injuries that have left the Braves’ rotation a patchwork unit for the past few seasons, and of the fondness that most players have for Lowe. They wanted a guy they could count on for 200 innings, and hey, he’s a good dude, too.
But do you throw that kind of money at Lowe, who’ll be 36 in June, has never struck out 150 batters, and hasn’t won more than 16 games since his back-to-back seasons of 21-8 and 17-7 in 2002-03. Or do you cross your fingers and throw similar money at Burnett, who’ll be 32 in January and went 18-10 with an AL-leading 231 strikeouts in 221-1/3 innings last season after missing starts for shoulder and elbow issues the previous two seasons?
I’m hearing the Braves are choosing the latter, in part because they have a much better shot at landing Burnett than Lowe, and partly because they want a power arm who can dominate opponents to be the guy at the top of a rotation that includes budding stalwart Jair Jurrjens and, well, fill in the blanks.
The Braves made a strong push for Jake Peavy that lasted about six weeks, many hours spent talking to Padres GM Kevin Towers about what it would take to get the 2007 Cy Young Award winner and Alabama native. But those talks stalled and the Braves announced they were pulling out three weeks ago.
There have been no discussions between the parties since, though Towers continues to discuss openly why he thinks Peavy might not go to the Braves — their old policy against no-trade-clauses, for one thing — and about how close the Braves and Padres seemed to be in a deal, etc.
To many this is a sign that Towers sees what others do, that the Braves’ four-player offer, including Yunel Escobar and center-field prospect Gorkys Hernandez, is a far better deal than he’s been offered by any other team for Peavy, who is signed to a reasonable contract over the next four or five years, but who comes with some concerns about his elbow and violent delivery, not to mention the questions starting to arise about his silence and inaccessibility to reporters and others all winter while his future has been discussed at length and while rumors fly that he likes this team, doesn’t like that one, might not like the Braves anymore, etc.
Do I think the Peavy-Braves thing is dead? No, but I’m not as confident as I was a few weeks ago that the Braves and Padres would get the deal done. The ham-fisted way that this thing has been handled has undoubtedly added obstacles to what should have been a relatively easy deal to get done.
From what I hear, Towers kept coming back to the table asking for more, and the Braves got tired of waiting and trying to satisfy his demands, when it didn’t seem that any other team was offering a package that would justify the Braves having to sweeten their own offer.
The Braves have serious need for pitching, and knew that if they waited and waited for Towers and Peavy as the Winter Meeting approached, they might miss out on one or more of the few other pitchers available, particularly after Dempster re-upped with the Cubs, taking that option off the board.
They’re in heavily in the Burnett sweepstakes, and the Braves have kicked the tires on other, lesser pitchers (remember, they still want to add two starters to add to the top half of the rotation if at all possible, and that never included Hampton, Smoltz or Glavine).
Oh, and that brings us back around to Hampton, and the personality thing that I was getting at when I begin this rambling monologue.
Just as personality is a reason that so many Braves want Lowe - they talk to him, they talk to others who know him, and they all get the impression he’s a great dude - it also colored their desire to bring back Hampton, just as it made many of us in the media hope the Braves would have a spot for him.
But facts are facts, and the prospect of going through another injury-plagued season with Hampton — the whole he’s hurt, he’s rehabbing, he’s got one more rehab start possibly, blah blah blah — was arguably not worth the potential of getting a solid six or seven innings out of him most starts if he was healthy.
Just consider this: The Braves paid him $48.5 million over six seasons, during which he made 85 starts and went 35-24 with a 4.10 ERA in 509-2/3 innings.
That works out to about $570,000 per start, $1.39 million per win, $95,160 per inning, although insurance paid portions of his salary while he was on the DL.
Hampton made $84.5 million during that six-year stretch, the rest paid by the Colorado Rockies and Florida Marlins as part of the three-team trade that brought him to Atlanta in November 2002, including a $6 million buyout of a 2009 option. That’s $84.5 million for 85 starts and a whole lot of rehab.
He signed a then-record eight-year, $121 million contract with Colorado before the 2001 season, and was traded after two disappointing seasons.
After going 63-31 with a 3.30 ERA in 133 starts over the four seasons before he signed the huge contract, Hampton went 56-52 with a 4.81 ERA in 147 starts during the eight-year deal. Or, about $910,000 per start for the past eight years.
While I know plenty of folks out there are skeptical — hey, my e-mail makes that clear — of his supposed desire to be closer to his kids as a reason he took the Houston offer, keep in mind he’s going through a divorce and the kids are going to be with their mother in Arizona. Moving them to Atlanta: Not an option.
The Diamonbacks didn’t want him, or he’d have gone there. And, let’s face it, Hampton, at 36 and still a North Florida country boy at heart, might also just have felt more comfortable in Houston, around his old buddies including Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell, who still live out there.
Besides, when you’ve made $121 million, even if you’re going to lose a lot of that in a divorce, you’ve probably still got plenty in the bank to make it easy to take a little less to pitch for one team (Astros) than was offered by another (Braves).
I was assured by two people close to the situation that the Braves actually offered more in a one-year proposal than the Astros, who are giving him a $2 mill contract with incentives that could add another $2 mill to the total if he makes enough starts.
But in the end, it didn’t matter. Hampton was more comfortable with Houston.
C’est la vie. Let’s just not make it out as though that puts a huge blow in the Braves’ offseason plans. They made it clear from the start that, whether or not he returned, he was not going to be one of the two pitchers they hoped to land this winter. He was going to be a back-of-the-rotation guy.
Those guys are important, particularly for a team that’s been undercut by its injury-plagued rotations for the past couple of seasons.
But Hampton was not going to make or break the season.
And as for any quaint notion of “loyalty,” on the part of a player and/or team, people, you should all know by now you’re just setting yourself up for repeated disappointment if you even remotely expect it in this day and age. Some might talk about it, but when it comes down to making a decision … well, we’ll leave it at that.
It’s a two-way street, and these days neither lane is traveled very often at all.
Not getting Hampton wasn’t a season-maker, not at all. But not getting a Peavy, Burnett or Lowe, someone of that ilk … now that’s the kind of thing that can definitely make or break a season.
Those who keep asking about the likes of Ben Sheets and Randy Johnson, keep in mind that Sheets is a gifted pitcher whose injury history makes him too unreliable to give a big contract as a No. 1 starter (he never won more than 12 games before this season), and Big Unit has serious back issues that would seem to make him a bad fit for Frank Wren’s plan to move forward with a reliable ace for the next several years or more.
Also, and we can discuss this more in the comments below, not adding any power to the outfield, is something elose that could seriously undermine the Braves’ chances in 2009. Which is why they continue quietly pushing to add a power bat, including some trade discussions we’ve heard about (Ryan Ludwick, possibly Jermaine Dye) and plenty we have not.
At next week’s Winter Meetings in Las Vegas, I would anticipate things starting to become clearer, dominoes beginning to fall, for the Braves and around baseball in general.
Now, just a few other things:
Rickey likes Rickey in HOF: Got my Hall of Fame ballot sitting here (I became eligible to vote four years ago after my 10th year in the BBWAA, but the AJC doesn’t permit us to vote), and Rickey Henderson jumps off the page. His first year on ballot, and he’s sure to get in right away.
Among the holdovers from last year’s ballot, I’m sure Jim Rice will finally make it in this year. He was named on 392 ballots (72.2 percent) last year, just 16 votes shy of the 75 percent required for election.
It’s Rice’s 15th and final time on the ballot this year.
Folks, while we all have a sentimental spot for Dale Murphy and can make a decent case for his selection to the Hall (he’s a long way from getting there), the case for Rice is far, far stronger.
The longtime Boston Red Sox publicist Dick Bresciani has made the case for Rice for years. Among the high points: Rice ranked among the top five in American League MVP voting in 1975, ‘77, ‘78, ‘79, ‘83, and ’86, the only player to among the top five in AL voting at least five times between 1963-2005.
He is one of only 16 ever to place among the top five in MVP voting at least six times. Of the 12 Hall-eligible players on that list, 11 are in Cooperstown, including eight elected on the first ballot. Rice is the lone exception.
Diversions: The Pogues, with their brilliant original lineup including Shane MacGowan (like Keith Richards, he’s apparently impervious) is set to play the Tabernacle in Atlanta on March 9. One of the few bands among my favorites that I’ve never seen, since they so rarely toured the United States…. By the way, Ray Davies is playing a solo show tonight at Variety Playhouse, but I’d like to get over to The EARL tonight to see this intriguing new band O’Death (I know, sensational name).
I meant to ask before, was anyone who reads this blog at the Finest Worksongs REM tribute by Athens bands in September 2006, at the 40-Watt Club in Athens? I’ve been playing the CD from that show, and particularly dig Patterson Hood’s cover of “Second Guessing” and the intro story about first seeing R.E.M. in Oxford, Miss. Modern Skirts’ cover of “Perfect Circle” is also outstanding.
My early Oscar pick for Best Actor: Sean Penn in Milk. Remarkable. But I hear that a surprising nominee could be Mickey Rourke as a washed-up wrestler in the soon-to-be-released The Wrestler. Seriously.
R.E.M. list, Pt. 2: By popular demand, we follow up our Top 10 list of top IRS-label R.E.M. songs from their 1982-1987 era, with a top dozen from the 20-year Warner Bros. era (1988 to present).
Much as it was next to impossible to pick 10 from the incredibly rich IRS years it was also difficult to limit it to a dozen from the Warner Brothers era. So we went with a baker’s dozen. Once you start going through the albums, you realize there were more great songs there than you might recall.
Feel free to give us your own 13. Here’s mine, in no particular order:
Man on the Moon; What’s the Frequency, Kenneth?; Country Feedback; How the West Was Won and Where It Got Us; Turn You Inside-Out; E-Bow the Letter; Walk Unafraid; Electrolite; All the Way to Reno; Bad Day; Mansized Wreath; Hollow Man; Losing My Religion.
OK, a tune to close: To finish this rambling essay, let’s go to the well that is Waits:
“BLACK WINGS” by Tom Waits
Take an eye for an eye
Take a tooth for a tooth
Just like they say in the Bible
Never leave a trace or forget a face
Of any man at the table
When the moon is a cold chiseled dagger
Sharp enough to draw blood from a stone
He rides through your dreams on a coach
And horses and the fence posts
In the midnight look like bones
Well they’ve stopped trying to hold him
With mortar, stone and chain
He broke out of every prison
Boots mount the staircase
The door is flung back open
He’s not there for he has risen
He’s not there for he has risen
Well he once killed a man with a guitar string
He’s been seen at the table with kings
Well he once saved a baby from drowning
There are those who say beneath his coat there are wings
Some say they fear him
Others admire him
Because he steals his promise
One look in his eye
Everyone denies
Ever having met him
Ever having met him
He can turn himself into a stranger
Well they broke a lot of canes on his hide
He was born away in a cornfield
A fever beats in his head like a drum inside
Some say they fear him
Others admire him
Because he steals his promise
One look in his eye
Everyone denies
Ever having met him
Ever having met him
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Braves fans, it just feels late
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
It’s Thanksgiving and we’re all thankful for something, most of us for a whole lot. So have a good one, everybody, and try to be thankful for what you have despite these rough times.
We’re glad you come here to the Braves/Man In Black blog, whether it’s once in a while or all the time. We really are. All of you. Well, most of you (smile).
Now, on to biz, though we’ll hurry through because we’ve got three eating stops to make on the bike before 5 p.m. (yes, thankful it’s warm enough to motor around a traffic-free city on the bike at Thanksgiving).
Since the other blog was getting close to the magic crash number (it tends to stagger, then bend and break around 1,000 comments) we figured we should get up a clean slate since I know a lot of you are going to get tired of eating and watching some bad football at some point. So when that holiday family dysfunction gets too dysfunctional, post a comment or two. Don’t cost nothin’ (reference to the movie we recently debated here).
And speaking of the movie Animal House, they’re showing another comedy I personally rate even higher, The Big Lebowski, twice today at the Plaza Theatre on Ponce in Atlanta.
Where were we? Oh, the Braves. Yes. Hey, it’s Thanksgiving and some of you act as though the offseason is basically over and has been an abject failure for the Braves. Folks, you’re getting waay ahead of yourselves.
The offseason has barely begun. It just feel like it’s been excruciatingly long and fruitless because the Braves immediately were immersed in the Jake Peavy Saga, before most other teams even started whipping up rumors and talking to free agents and other teams about trades.
Keep in mind, it’s not even Dec. 1, the deadline for teams to offer arbitration to their free agents. Until that day, players such as Edgar Renteria and a bunch of other Type A free agents aren’t going to be signed by other teams, because those teams want to wait to see if said players are offered arbitration.
Why would a team sign a Renteria today and give up a first-round draft pick as compensation to the Tigers (who’d also get a sandwich pick as compensation) if they can wait until Monday (Dec. 1) and sign him without giving up compensatory pick if, as expected, the Tigers don’t offer arbitration? Makes no sense.
Several pitchers are in that same situation, less-than-dominant but still classified as Type-A free agents including Oliver Perez, Jamie Moyer Brad Penny, Randy Wolf, Randy Johnson. Even Ben Sheets, who’d get more than Milwaukee would care to pay him if the Brewers offered arbitration and he accepted it.
So just try to relax, folks. If the Braves are going to sign anyone like that, it was never going to be until at least next week. And most of those guys will wait until the Winter Meetings a week later in Las Vegas.
If you’re a free agent and you came this far, chances are your agent is going to urge you to wait until the buying frenzy begins and dominoes start falling in Vegas (along with some writers’ checking-account balances, I’m guessing.)
Meanwhile, the Braves are, as A.J. Burnett’s agent said, one of six teams “fully engaged” in talks for the Toronto right-hander. They’ve expressed interest in Derek Lowe and already tried to lure Ryan Dempster. Lowe is a Boras client, which means he probably won’t sign for a month or more, and Dempster re-upped with the Cubs, as most people figured all along that he would.
Is there risk in offering a four- or five-year contract to Burnett, which is what it’s going to take, probably for at least $15 mill annually, to sign him? Sure there is. Like Ben Sheets, he’s had plenty of DL stints throughout his career and, like Sheets, never won more than 12 games before this season. By the way, isn’t that amazing, that two veterans who never won more than 12 games in a season before 2008 are so highly sought as free agents?
(Well, wait, actually I haven’t heard of a great deal of interest yet in Sheets … but you get my point.)
But that’s what happens where there are a bunch of pitching-needy teams with money to spend and so few top-shelf type of pitchers available. And before anyone dismisses Burnett on that count, don’t try to tell me that a guy who goes 18-10 and leads the AL with 231 strikeouts in 221-1/3 innings isn’t top-shelf, particularly when he won 18 games for a team that plays in a division with the Red Sox, Yankees and pennant-winning Rays.
In his last 19 starts beginning June 24, he went 12-3 with a 3.12 ERA and 141 strikeout with 40 walks in 130 innings. In his last 15 starts, he had nine wins, 11 quality starts and 113 strikeouts in 102-2/3 innings, a 15-game stretch that included nine starts against the Rays, Red Sox and Yankees.
Realistically, if Burnett had pitched for an NL East team the way he pitched this year for Toronto, don’t you think he could’ve been a 20-game winner?
Not saying he’s not flawed, but he had Tommy John surgery four years ago, and scar-tissue breakup two years later in the elbow. Almost every pitcher who has TJ surgery will tell you they get scar-tissue breakup, it’s just that most of them usually get it during the months-after recovery period; Burnett’s came later, and scared a lot of people including him.
Dr. James Andrews told him after a fearful visit that it was nothing to be alarmed about, and Burnett’s had no problems with the elbow since. Folks, we could make a list of 40 accomplished major league pitchers who’ve had TJ surgery and never had another problem with their elbows.
Not saying Burnett won’t, but these days, more pitchers don’t have recurrences of elbow problems after TJ surgery than pitchers who do. Burnett’s also had a couple of shut-down periods for shoulder soreness in the past few years, but the Blue Jays said they were only being cautious bringing him back slowly from those DL stints because he’d had a big workload leading up to those periods and/or they were out of contention at the time. MRIs of his shoulder have been fine.
But yes, there are risks with such an injury-plagued pitcher, to get back to that issue we were discussing. Risks with him, Jake Peavy, for any pitcher with some mileage and especially those with multiple DL stints in the past.
But to use a cliché, you can’t swim in the waters with the big boys without taking risks. It’s the price of doing business in this industry.
If you want to compete now, you’ve got to fill holes, not cross fingers and hope that your own homegrown players continue to develop and fill those holes in a couple of years or more.
Sometimes, you can’t sit on the sideline and wait for kids to develop in a year or two. For instance, if you’re a GM whose former perennially contending team has missed the postseason three straight years, and some folks are getting antsy with attendance declining and those inroads you made with rejuvenated fans a few years ago now showing some erosion, and with a horrible economy ready to exacerbate that erosion should your team struggle out of the gate again.
And just to reiterate, I don’t believe the Braves are completely out of the Jake Peavy sweepstakes, as it were. Regardless of what’s said publicly, until he’s traded to another team I’m not going to believe the Braves are entirely out of it.
If they’re not, it would sure explain why they’re slow to trade for, say, a Ryan Ludwick or Jermaine Dye or another other outfield power bat (that’s a need they’d rather fill via trade that through a multi-year contract). Because the Braves don’t intend to trade Yunel Escobar and Kelly Johnson in the same offseason, don’t intend to start over with two new middle infielders at spring training.
So of there’s any chance they could still get Peavy in a deal with Escobar as the centerpiece, then they’d not want to deal Kelly Johnson for Ludwick, as was discussed at the GM meetings. As you can see, this is complicated. These are moving parts that are all part of the offseason process for the Braves, and so much depends, potentially, on the Peavy deal.
That’s why it was so frustrating for the Braves when Kevin Towers kept coming back to the table asking for another prospect, every time the deal looked like it might get done. And probably why the Braves announced publicly they were pulling out, to put pressure on Towers to get a deal done.
That’s just me speculating there. But think about it: If that’s not the case, why wouldn’t the Braves have just quietly stopped negotiating with Towers for Peavy, rather than announcing it publicly, which is so unlike the Braves’ usual policy of keeping almost everything private in all negotiations?
But anyway, the bigger point is that, as I said, it’s still early in the process. The Braves have a lot of oars in the water, many more than just the ones that are leaked (those leaks usually come from the other team involved or from agents, not from the Braves).
Oh, by the way, for those who don’t mind the potential salary and wait involved with signing a proven client of Scott Boras, but cringe at the thought of signing the injury-plagued Burnett, consider this comparison.
Since the beginning of the 2007 season, Lowe is 26-25 with a 3.55 ERA, .250 opponents’ average and 294 strikeouts (104 walks) in 410-1/3 innings. He received 4.8 support runs per nine innings pitched in that span.
In that same period, Burnett is 28-18 with a 3.93 ERA, .234 opponents’ average and 407 strikeouts (152 walks) in 387 innings. He received 5.0 support runs per nine innings pitched in that span.
For the record, in that same period, Peavy is 29-16 with a 2.61 ERA, .215 opponents’ average and 403 strikeouts (125 walks) in 389 innings, with 4.9 support runs per nine innings. And a Cy Young Award.
Diversions: For me, the DVR is neck-and-neck with the Ipod shuffle mode for most significant technological developments of the past decade, or however long they’ve been around. Just worked out and this song list popped up on the shuffle: “Car Wheels on a Gravel Road” by Lucinda Williams, “Let Down” by Radiohead, “Don’t Take Your Guns to Town” by Johnny Cash, “Glass” by Gang of Four, “” by The Selmanaires, “Somewhere On Skid Row” by Merle Haggard, “Cherry Bomb” by John Mellencamp, “Don’t Say Nuthin’” by The Roots, “Magic Trick” by M. Ward, and “Straight To Hell” by Hank III (not quite as great as the Clash song by the same name, but brilliant nonetheless).
An R.E.M. top 10: I was inspired by uga-brave and Braveheart’s late-night blogging Wednesday, so I thought I’d come up with my own top 10 list of R.E.M. songs from their earlier years, from their albums on IRS. A few of these were on the jukebox at Louise’s West, our favorite dive bar during college in Lawrence, Kan., where I was immediately hooked on Athens’ favorite sons after seeing them play on campus in 1983, not long after Murmur was released.
Feel free to give us your own R.E.M. top 10, but keep it to the IRS years if you can. We’ll do another top 10 of their more recent stuff later.
My favorite 10 from IRS years: 1. Begin The Begin, 2. Sitting Still, 3. So. Central Rain, 4. I Believe, 5. Radio Free Europe, 6. Harborcoat, 7. Driver 8, 8. Carnival of Sorts (Box Cars), 9. 7 Chinese Brothers, 10. Pretty Persuasion.
(“The One I Love” isn’t on my list simply because it was too ubiquitous. I just heard it too damn many times, but it’s a terrific song, as were at least 25 others that could make this list. “It’s the End of the World” doesn’t make my list. Always felt like more of a novelty song. I’m sure many will disagree, since it’s one of their most popular.)
OK, a tune: Stipe has written some strong lyrics, but he’s so often been arcane or cryptic, especially back in the day. The lyrics weren’t as crucial to me when it came to R.E.M. as they are for most of my favorite rock artists. For instance:
”CRIME IN THE CITY” by Neil Young
Well, the cop made the showdown
He was sure he was right
He had all of the lowdown
From the bank heist last night
His best friend was the robber
And his wife was a thief
All the children were killers
They couldn’t get no relief
The bungalow was surrounded
When a voice loud and clear
Said, Come on out with your hands up
Or we’ll blow you out of here.
There was a face in the window
The TV cameras rolled
Then they cut to the announcer
And the story was told.
The artist looked at the producer
The producer sat back
He said, What we have got here
Is a perfect track
But we don’t have a vocal
And we don’t have a song
If we could get these things accomplished
Nothin’ else could go wrong.
So he balanced the ashtray
As he picked up the phone
And said, Send me a songwriter
Who’s drifted far from home
And make sure that he’s hungry
Make sure he’s alone
Send me a cheeseburger
And a new Rolling Stone.
Yeah.
There’s still crime in the city,
Said the cop on the beat,
I don’t know if I can stop it
I feel like meat on the street
They paint my car like a target
I take my orders from fools
Meanwhile some kid blows my head off
Well, I play by their rules
That’s why I’m doin’ it my way
I took the law in my hands
So here I am in the alleyway
A wad of cash in my pants
I get paid by a 10-year-old
He says he looks up to me
There’s still crime in the city
But it’s good to be free.
Yeah.
Now I come from a family
That has a broken home
Sometimes I talk to Daddy
On the telephone
When he says that he loves me
I know that he does
But I wish I could see him
I wish I knew where he was
But that’s the way all my friends are
Except maybe one or two
Wish I could see him this weekend
Wish I could walk in his shoes
But now I’m doin’ my own thing
Sometimes I’m good, then I’m bad
Although my home has been broken
It’s the best home I ever had
Yeah.
Well, I keep gettin’ younger
My life’s been funny that way
Before I ever learned to talk
I forgot what to say
I sassed back to my mom
I sassed back to my teacher
I got thrown out of Bible school
For sassin’ back at the preacher
Then I grew up to be a fireman
Put out every fire in town
Put out anything smokin’
But when I put the hose down
The judge sent me to prison
He gave me life without parole
Wish I never put the hose down
Wish I never got old.
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Hanson tops off an overwhelming year
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Sure, we knew that Tommy Hanson could dominate Single-A and Double-A hitters, after a 2008 season in which the Braves’ top-rated pitching prospect went 11-5 with a 2.41 ERA in 138 innings between Myrtle Beach and Misssissippi.
Dude had 163 strikeouts and 52 walks in 138 innings and led minor league starters with a .175 opponents’ average. Oh, and threw a 14-strikeout no-hitter in Double-A.
But what would the 6-foot-6 right-hander do against prospects of his ilk out in the Arizona Fall League, where many teams send their most promising youngsters, some of whom have already had a cup of coffee in the majors?
Well, Hanson was about as dominant against them as he was against the poor kids down at Myrtle Beach.
I mean, they told me out in Arizona a couple weeks ago that they rarely, if ever, had seen such man-against-boys performances as the ones that Hanson turned in most every start for the Mesa Solar Sox, with a dozen or so scouts sitting in the stands behind home plate armed with radar guns.
Hanson went 5-0 with a 0.63 ERA in seven regular-season AFL starts, then gave up one run and three hits in five innings of Saturday’s championship game before his bullpen blew a lead in Mesa’s loss to the Phoenix Desert Dogs.
Including the title game, Hanson finished 5-0 with a 0.74 ERA and stunning 64 strikeouts in 36-2/3 innings, with only 13 hits, 10 walks and three earned runs allowed.
Please keep in mind he was facing fairly advanced young hitters only a step away from the big leagues, not Class-A and Double-A lineups that might have included three or four hitters with little chance of ever seeing a major league field.
He overwhelmed them to such a degree that Hanson could win the Arizona Fall League MVP award. No pitcher has ever won that honor, I’m told. It’ll be announced in a litte over a week at the Winter Meetings in Vegas.
Everyone who saw him out got a good idea quickly as to why the Braves refused to trade him to San Diego in a Jake Peavy deal, and why they consider Hanson off-limits altogether. Him and big outfielder Jason Heyward might well be the most talented prospects the Braves have developed since Andruw Jones. Seriously.
I think we’ll see Hanson by mid-summer in Atlanta, and it wouldn’t shock me if he makes a strong bid for an opening day rotation spot this spring in big-league camp at Dark Star. But we’ll see.
A lot of that probably depends on what the Braves are able to do this winter, if they’re able to acquire the two proven starters they seek, on top of whether Mike Hampton and/or Tom Glavine and/or John Smoltz returns, though Smoltz might be headed to the bullpen if he’s back.
For now, thought I’d share with you a few parts of my interview with Hanson from last month’s trip out to Arizona, stuff that didn’t get in my story or on the blog previously.
Tommy Hanson on…
The confidence and maturity that Mesa (and Myrtle Beach) manager Rocket Wheeler said he’s seen in him since Hanson first was promoted from Rome to Myrtle in 2007 and got knocked around a bit initially:
“Yeah, exactly. I was a little bit unsure last year [2007]. But after I got hit around a little bit, I just said, forget it, I’m just going to go out and pitch and do what I’ve always done. And it seems to be working out.”
On starting the 2008 season with five no-hit innings with 13 strikeouts in Myrtle’s season opener:
“I didn’t know if I was capable of doing that. That was just one of those days where everything was working out. I never would have guessed I would have done that. But that was just one of those times … pretty much all year this year I’ve been real confident with all my pitches.”
On how far he’s come in one year’s time:
“Well, with all my pitches I feel like I can throw them for strikes when I need to. Last year I wasn’t real consistent, so I’d say when it comes to that, I’ve come a long ways. Now really all I’m working on is my changeup, trying to get that down and just keep doing what I’m doing.”
On the slider he broke out for the first time in a couple of years during his June no-hitter for for Mississippi:
“I was working on it a little before that game, and that was the game where [Mississippi pitching coach Derek] Bothello said, ‘You know what, just throw it whenever you feel like throwing it.’ So that was really the first time they let me have my slider back and let me throw it whenever I wanted to.
“I threw it quite a bit [in that game]. I threw my slider quite a bit growing up; I didn’t really throw a curveball. I just felt a lot more comfortable with my slider at the time. I feel good with curveball now, too, but it just feels like [the slider] is an easier pitch to throw. It’s not a feel pitch, you throw it just like your fastball.”
So that’s been your “out” pitch lately?
“I don’t know. Different days it’s either my curveball or my slider. Just depends. But I’d say the most consistent one is my slider.”
On handling all the attention he’s getting:
“I’m out here just to work on stuff. I’m not going to let that bother me or affect me, what I do each day when I go out there. Every day I come out here I just want to get better, so I can pitch in the major leagues. I mean, what I’m doing out here. I know I’ve got to get better, so that’s what my focus is.”
Has your success this year made you even hungrier to get to the majors?
“Yeah, I just feel closer. Just a couple of little things I want to work on. I feel closer, so I’m ready to just keep working hard and hopefully it happens soon.”
On Braves GM Frank Wren telling him, in person out in Arizona, that he wouldn’t be traded:
“It’s definitely a good feeling, him telling me that. I signed with the Braves, I want to stay with the Braves. So it’s good that they want me to stay here, too. So it’s definitely a good feeling. [Wren] pulled me aside and told me that. It was definitely good to hear.”
What’s been the highlight of the year for him?
“I’d say the no-hitter, but I’d also say winning the league with the team in Missisippi. Because they started out not doing too hot [Hanson was promoted there in May]. I kind of got to watch a team go from, you know, where everybody was down, to the stage everybody was getting confidence, and then everybody was playing well and we ended up winning the league.
“Personal [high point] was throwing that no-hitter, but overall, winning the league was definitely a highlight.”
On his chances of making the big-league club out of spring training:
“I don’t know. That’s kind of up to them. The goal for me is always to pitch in Atlanta; it’s not to pitch at a certain level in the minor leagues. So whenever they think I’m ready, hopefully I’ll be ready and go from there.”
On how nice it was not having to face Mesa catcher Tyler Flowers in the Fall League. Flowers, another Braves prospect, led the league with 12 homers.
[Hanson laughs.]”Definitely. I mean, you saw what Flowers did in batting practice. He has unreal power. He hits the crap out of the ball, and I love him behind the plate. He does a great job behind the plate. It’s like we’re always on the same page, and he’s a huge target back there, too, so it kind of makes it look a little closer.”
Leaving them out there: Don’t know if anyone referred to this stat previously, but I just noticed it in a Peter Gammons file from a week or two back and it brought home a point we’ve made previously.
It wasn’t just that Jeff Francoeur had such a disappointing season, it was the fact that he was left to hit in the middle of the order for so long and left in the lineup day after day after day. The end result was a remarkable number of wasted scoring opportunities.
And here’s the stat and spells it out. Gammons got it from Rob Tracy at the Elias Sports Bureau.
Hitters who came to bat with the most runners on base: 1. Justin Morneau, 558; 2. Garrett Atkins, 515; 3. David Wright, 508; 4. Mark Teixeira; 5. Carlos Beltran, .498; 6. Jeff Francoeur, 494; 7. Ryan Howard, 483; 8. Carlos Delgado, 480.
So I took that stat and went and looked at what all those guys hit with runners on base and how many RBI they finished with in 2008.
The envelope, please:
Morneau: .330 with runners on, 129 RBI.
Atkins: .256, 99 RBI.
Wright: .290, 124 RBI.
Teixeira: .303, 121 RBI.
Beltran: .283, 112 RBI.
Francoeur: .203, 71 RBI.
Howard: .309, 146 RBI.
Delgado: .285, 115 RBI.
Wow. That’s just ugly.
Reiterating, Braves need OF power: It’s been a while (seems like a very long while) since the Braves’ season ended, so this would be a good time to remind everyone that all Braves outfielders - all of them, starters and part-timers and everyone else - combined for a not-at-all-grand total of 27 homers, which was the worst in the majors and less than half of the NL team average (63) for outfield homers.
Ten NL teams had 60 or more, and six NL teams had 73 or more homers from outfielders. And the Braves had … 27. Twenty-seven. The Braves had a majors-low .367 slugging percentage from their outfielders, and only the Nationals (196) and Mariners (199) had fewer RBI from outfielders than the Braves (212).
So while so much attention is focused on the Braves acquiring starting pitching, their other stated offseason priority is a power-hitting outfielder.
My understanding is that all available options not named Manny have been or are still being considered, but the Braves are hoping to either sign or trade for an affordable bat without any long-term commitment. That’s why names like Seattle free agent Raul Ibanez and St. Louis trade-bait Ryan Ludwick keep coming up.
It’s apparent the Braves are planning to move forward with Matt Diaz, in the fold (Frank Wren made a comment the other day about how committed Diaz is and how good a shape he’s getting himself into this offseason), so I’m assuming he’s going to have some LF duties, perhaps even be in a platoon arrangement depending upon which other bad the Braves can acquire this winter.
That would make some sense with either Ludwick (if he’s not a one-season wonder?) or Ibanez. Both had great seasons last year as every-day players, but Ludwick has had an injury-plagued past and has been much more effective against right-handed pitchers, while Ibanez is 36, and has also been much more potent vs. righties in his career.
Both might benefit from a platoon arrangment, or at least a semi-platoon type of deal, which would also assure the Braves a powerful, experienced bat for pinch-hitting, regardless of who was playing LF at the time.
Ibanez has a .293 career average and .949 OPS vs. right-handers, and a .268 average and .734 OPS vs. lefties. Two years ago in 2007, he hit .305 with an .899 OPS vs. righties, and .256 with a .650 OPS vs. lefties (last season the splits were much more even).
Ludwick erupted for a 80 extra-base hits (37 homers) and 113 RBI in his breakout 2008 season, his first healthy season in the majors. He hit .266 with 15 homers and a .929 OPS vs. lefties, and .316 with 22 homers and a .984 OPS vs. righties. The man raked vs. just about everyone.
But in 2007, Ludwick hit just .221 with three homers and a .684 OPS in 122 at-bats vs. lefties, and .298 with 11 homers and a .909 OPS in 181 at-bats vs. righties.
For his career, Ludwick has a .296 average and .893 OPS vs. righties, and .233 average and .797 OPS vs. lefties.
Yes, despite being a right-handed hitter, he’s got a batting average 63 points lower and an OPS nearly 100 points lower against righties than against lefties. So throw out the book on righty-lefty matchups and go with actual results.
While Ludwick might be a gamble if the Braves have to give up a significant player to get him, he’s less a gamble if they have a solid potential platoon partner, or at least partial platoon, if you will. Ludwick has alwas raked against righties.
Enter Diaz.
While not a big power threat against lefties or righties, Diaz usually has produced loads of line-drive hits and a high average, particularly against lefties.
His .309 career average includes a .328 mark with 18 homers and an .869 OPS in 478 at-bats vs. lefties, compared to .288 average with five homers and a .706 OPS in 431 at-bats vs. righties.
In 2007, Diaz’s .338 overall average included a robust .356 with a .964 OPS in 188 at-bats vs. lefties, and .318 with a .756 OPS in 170 at-bats vs. righties.
By the way, Diaz might even have a role if the Braves were to pony up for a big slugger, like Adam Dunn, who could stand to sit against some particularly tough left-handers.
Dunn last season hit .253 with 30 homers and a .951 OPS in 363 at-bats vs. right-handers, and .195 with 10 homers, a .773 OPS and 60 strikeouts in 154 at-bats vs. lefties.
On the other hand, Jermaine Dye, another big bat the Braves have at least discussed, hits both righties and lefties about equally well. Only reason you’d sit him is to rest his old bones from time to time in hopes of keeping him healthy.
Well, that and the fact he’s gotten pretty bad defensively. Of course, pretty bad is relative, considering Dunn is absolutely brutal in the outfield by comparison.
Ibanez might be not only the oldest and cheapest (considering salaries and/or talent Braves would have to give up for Ludwick or other possible trade targets), but in my view, also the best option for the Braves. If the bidding doesn’t get too absurdly high for the veteran Ibanez, he’d probably be a great pickup for the Braves.
Back to L.A. — For the boys in Entourage, that is. For those who watched the season finale last night, that was a great way to wrap up the season, wasn’t it? Loved the scene where Scorcese appeared on the other end of the phone, and suddenly our man’s fortunes completely turned.
No, I didn’t see the 24 movie, but have it on DVR. I’m assuming it’s worth watching for any of us who’ve followed the show, though I gotta admit the previews didn’t look too fresh or thrilling, and I fell asleep after 10 minutes when I tried to watch it last night/this morning well after midnight.
Not excited about that the way I am about upcoming first-season finale of Sons of Anarchy and the much, much anticipated series finale of The Shield. Or, for that matter, as excited as I am to watch my Jayhawks play Washington tonight on ESPN2. Hoops is here.
Not your dad’s Deerhunter: Because for most of us, probably that Deerhunter was the terrific, harrowing 1978 movie — and it was actually three words, The Deer Hunter — starring Robert De Niro and Christopher Walken. I was 15 when it came out, so I couldn’t see it in the theatre. I remember the first time I saw it years later, that Russian roulette scene … wow.
Anyway, we’re talking about Deerhunter, the Atlanta band that’s had a hardcore following among the punk/alt-rock crowd for years, but now is reaching a far bigger audience with its latest CD, Microcastle. Not raw and punk like the stuff that built them a following around Atlanta, but more listenable, in my opinion. Sure to get them a bigger audience, which they deserve.
For some frame of reference for this new CD, the frequent comparisons I’ve seen are to Sonic Youth and My Bloody Valentine. While those are accurate, I like the refence a Braves/MIB blogger made a few days ago, comparing this CD to Velvet Underground. The more melodic tunes by VU, that is.
I also hear some straight-ahead early rock n’ roll influence, buried beneath the various noises and feedback. Great stuff. Fine album…..
Speaking of fine albums, I can’t believe how much Kings of Leon’s Only By The Night has grown on me. Realize I must have let their pedestrian performance on SNL, before I’d ever heard the album, affect my initial reaction upon listening to the entire album the first time. Because now I find myself playing the damn thing every couple of days. Tunes that lodge in the brain. Love it. Will definitely be on my best-of list at year’s end.
Meanwhile, anyone heard Guns n’ Roses (or should we just say Axl Rose’s?) Chinese Democracy that hits the stores (or store; I think they’re only selling it at Best Buy) this week. I know it’s been available for download, but I haven’t heard it. If you have, let us know what you think.
And finally — damn, we sure rambled didn’t we — a tune: When FSU safety Myron Rolle won a prestigious Rhodes scholarship this weekend, it reminded me that one of my favorite singer/songwriters, Kris Kristofferson, was also a Rhodes Scholar. Here’s one of his many great tunes, this one with a spoken-word intro that gets better the older and croakier Kristofferson gets.
”TO BEAT THE DEVIL” by Kris Kristofferson
A couple of years back, I come across a great and wasted friend of mine in the hallway of a recording studio; and while he was reciting some poetry to me that he’d written, I saw that he was about a step away from dyin’ and I couldn’t help but wonder why. And the lines of this song occurred to me. I’m happy to say he’s no longer wasted and he’s got him a good woman. And I’d like to dedicate this to John and June, who helped show me how to beat the devil.
It was winter time in Nashville, down on music city row.
And I was lookin’ for a place to get myself out of the cold.
To warm the frozen feelin’ that was eatin’ at my soul.
Keep the chilly wind off my guitar.
My thirsty wanted whisky; my hungry needed beans.
But it’d been of month of paydays since I’d heard that eagle scream.
So with a stomach full of empty and a pocket full of dreams,
I left my pride and stepped inside a bar.
Actually, I guess you’d could call it a Tavern:
Cigarette smoke to the ceiling and sawdust on the floor;
Friendly shadows.
I saw that there was just one old man sittin’ at the bar.
And in the mirror I could see him checkin’ me and my guitar.
An’ he turned and said: “Come up here boy, and show us what you are.”
I said: “I’m dry.” He bought me a beer.
He nodded at my guitar and said: “It’s a tough life, ain’t it?”
I just looked at him. He said: “You ain’t makin’ any money, are you?”
I said: “You’ve been readin’ my mail.”
He just smiled and said: “Let me see that guitar.
“I’ve got something you oughta hear.”
Then he laid it on me:
“If you waste your time a-talkin’ to the people who don’t listen,
“To the things that you are sayin’, who do you think’s gonna hear.
“And if you should die explainin’ how the things that they complain about,
“Are things they could be changin’, who do you think’s gonna care?”
There were other lonely singers in a world turned deaf and blind,
Who were crucified for what they tried to show.
And their voices have been scattered by the swirling winds of time.
‘Cos the truth remains that no-one wants to know.
Well, the old man was a stranger, but I’d heard his song before,
Back when failure had me locked out on the wrong side of the door.
When no-one stood behind me but my shadow on the floor,
And lonesome was more than a state of mind.
You see, the devil haunts a hungry man,
If you don’t wanna join him, you got to beat him.
I ain’t sayin’ I beat the devil, but I drank his beer for nothing.
Then I stole his song.
And you still can hear me singin’ to the people who don’t listen,
To the things that I am sayin’, prayin’ someone’s gonna hear.
And I guess I’ll die explaining how the things that they complain about,
Are things they could be changin’, hopin’ someone’s gonna care.
I was born a lonely singer, and I’m bound to die the same,
But I’ve got to feed the hunger in my soul.
And if I never have a nickle, I won’t ever die ashamed.
‘Cause I don’t believe that no-one wants to know.
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Braves still shopping for a Big Dog
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The leaves are off the big ol’ oak tree I’m looking at in my front yard. Thanksgiving is just a week away. And the Braves haven’t filled any of their three stated top-priority needs — power-hitting outfielder and two additional, proven starting pitchers (not Smoltz, Glavine, Hampton or Tommy Hanson, though one or more of those fellas is likely to be on the 2009 pitching staff at some point, and it really wouldn’t shock me if that last one, young Hanson, is on it from opening day).
The denizens of the Braves/Man in Black blog, and plenty of other, less-fortunate Braves fans, are understandably growing impatient. But while some of you are already turning attention to comparatively little dogs — can I interest you in a Randy Wolf, an Oliver Perez, or a rejuvenated Mike Hampton (no, really….) — the Braves are still aiming for a Big Dog.
Jake Peavy fits that description. So does A.J. Burnett. Maybe Andy Pettitte (hey, he’s 36, but has 14 or more wins and more than 200 innings in each of the past four seasons, and in seven of the past nine).
And certainly, a very Big Dog is Roy Halladay, who it’s rumored might possibly be available for trade, though I find that a bit hard to wrap my brain around and accept as a strong possibility.
Still, veteran scribe Dan Graziano of the Newark Star-Ledger has heard the Blue Jays might explore the market for 2003 Cy Young Award winner. If so, you can be assured the Braves would be in the line of teams interested in Halladay, who has two years and $30 mill left on his contract.
The epitome of a “horse” pitcher, Halladay won 20 games this season and has churned out 52 wins and 691-1/3 innings over the past three seasons while finishing in the top five in AL Cy Young Award voting each year. No one has been as effective and durable as him these past three years. Repeat, no one.
Again, I have doubts about whether the Blue Jays would really trade their 31-year-old ace, but if they do you can bet the asking price in a trade would be comparable to what the Padres want for Peavy, if not greater.
Which brings us back to Peavy….
I don’t care what’s been said, what water has flowed under, through and around the bridge that was Braves-Padres negotiations, I still believe this deal is going to get done. As ham-fisted as this thing has been handled from San Diego’s end, the fact remains, they almost have to trade the 2007 Cy Young Award winner now, given the state of their payroll-purging franchise and GM Kevin Towers’ statement two weeks ago about how the train had left the station, in regards to the possibility of the Padres keeping Peavy, etc.
The Braves need him. The Padres need to trade him. The Braves have offered the best package for Peavy including a very good young, affordable player in shortstop Yunel Escobar, who could turn out to be a star and will almost certainly be no less than a solid major leaguer for many years to come. They would also likely give up center-field prospect Gorkys Hernandez, who is at least two years away but who has legitimate big-time potential, according to every scout I’ve talked to and opposing managers in the low-level minors.
The Cubs have Ryan Dempster now, and thus less need to meet Towers’ asking price for Peavy.
If the Braves pull it off, they’ll do so without parting with top-rated pitching prospect Tommy Hanson (one more time, folks: Hanson isn’t getting traded) and apparently without parting with center-field prospect Jordan Schafer, who might not have quite as high a “ceiling” as Hernandez, but who could be ready to take over in center on opening day and also has star potential, in the eyes of Braves officials and a few scouts I talked to last fall when he was tearing up the Arizona Fall League (months before his reputation was tarnished a bit by the 50-game suspension for alleged use of human growth hormone).
Schafer struggled initially in his return from the suspension, but played very well in the last couple of months of the season at Double-A Mississippi, reestablishing his status within the organization and his spot on the organizational ladder. He also helped himself by agreeing to play winter ball in Mexico, hardly a glamorous assignment (Josh Anderson declined to play winter ball; I don’t know if that will do anything to his candidacy or not, but also keep in mind that Schafer last spring impressed Bobby Cox and Braves teammates with his play and his attitude during spring training, when Cox said he’d be comfortable with the kid in center field if something happened to Mark Kotsay).
Schafer hit .276 with one homer and nine steals in 27 games with Navojoa — “He was playing well,” GM Frank Wren told me — before injuring a middle-finger tendon last week and returning home to be checked out. There was no break, but he’s done with winter ball — going to rest for three weeks, then rehab for a few weeks. Should be fine for spring training, Wren said.
Trading Escobar would open a big hole, no doubt, and the Braves aren’t inclined to turn his job over to anyone in the organization. They like Omar Infante in a utility role, Martin Prado’s weakest defensive position is shortstop, and Brent Lillibridge simply hasn’t shown he can hit major league pitching well enough to turn a starting job to him.
But it’s easier for team with a budget to replace a shortstop in this market than it is to acquire a free-agent pitching ace, and Escobar is one of the few young, affordable and extremely attractive players the Braves have who they’re willing to entertain offers for to get that ace pitcher or a slugging OF (Brian McCann, Jair Jurrjens, Hanson, OF prospect Jason Heyward _ those are guys teams would love to get, but they aren’t going anywhere).
There are plenty of potential shortstop replacements, though all have a flaw or two and a few would be very pricey, including former Brave Rafael Furcal, who would cost at least $10 mill per season in a multi-year deal, and perhaps closer to the three-year, $39 mill deal he just played out. Other free agents include aging-but-still-intriguing former Brave Edgar Renteria (great in the clubhouse, played very well for Braves in 2007, and not well at all for Detroit in 2008), Orlando Cabrera and Cesar Izturis, and trade possibilities including Julio Lugo (plenty of warts), Jack Wilson (a wart or two), Maicer Izturis and J.J. Hardy.
Whether the Braves trade Escobar for Peavy or not, their willingness to include him in the deal tells me the Braves would probably trade him in another big deal if this protracted Peavy negotation finally is irretrievably broken (ouch, I just had a personal divorce flashback typing that sentence.)
But this thing is not broken, or at least I don’t think it is. Wren told me he hasn’t spoken with Towers since the Braves announced Friday they were pulling out of their active pursuit of Peavy and turning attention toward other potential trades and free-agent negotiations.
Still, I don’t think it’s over. Not by a long shot.
And the fact that we’ve gone more than an entire day without hearing anything out of San Diego regarding Peavy, that only raises my antennae a bit and makes me wonder if something _ oh, OK, I’ll stop talking about it. But I’m just saying, when you least expect it ….
Wren on talks: After Ryan Dempster re-upped with the Cubs and the Yankees were said to be preparing a five-year, $80 mill offer for Burnett, I asked Wren on Tuesday night if the Braves were any closer to getting a pitcher or outfielder.
“We’re continuing to explore every opportunity,” he said. “We made some calls today, talked to some agents, also talked to some clubs about possibilities. We have a lot of conversations going on. I can’t say at this point how hopeful we are with any of them.”
Was he at all alarmed by the seemingly thin-and-getting-thinner availability of top-of-rotation starting pitchers?
“Not at this point,” he said. “There’s still guys out there that we like. I don’t see, in talking to representatives [agents], that anything is going to happen real quickly.”
As for the possibility of re-signing lefty Mike Hampton, Wren said, “We’ve had some discussions with him, some talks about an offer. Real good dialogue…. I don’t expect anything to happen [with Hampton and another team] before we at least have a chance to talk to him. We’ve had a number of conversations.”
And on re-signing Smoltz and/or Glavine, both attempting surgery comebacks, Wren said, “There’s no timetable. Just continuing to watch their rehab. A lot of it will depend on the progression and when they get to point of where you have a more educated idea” of whether they will be able and ready to pitch.
Wren said he talked to Smoltz recently “for quite a while. He’s happy with his progress.”
(I asked Wren again late this morning, as I wrote this blog, if any of those situations had changed, if any deal seemed imminent, if he’d had contact with Towers, etc, since we talked Tuesday night, and he said nothing had changed.)
Chipper’s contract: Veteran Chipper Jones isn’t signed beyond the 2009 season, and told me in October he expected to get together with his agent and Wren about a possible extension at some point in the offseason.
When I asked Frank about that this week, he said, “Our focus right now is trying to get our club put back together. If there’s anything we need to do with guys under contract, we’ll look at that once we have everything else in play.”
By the way, the Braves have six arbitration-eligible players: Omar Infante, Casey Kotchman, Jeff Francoeur, Kelly Johnson, Mike Gonzalez and Matt Diaz. The tender date is Dec. 12, and the Braves don’t appear to have any cases for non-tender consideration, like, say, Marcus Giles a few years ago.
Outfield targets: The Braves, of course, aren’t saying who they’re targeting in the power-hitting outfield market, but we do know their talks with the Cardinals about 37-homer man Ryan Ludwick aren’t dead.
Another one that we mentioned late in the 2008 season, Seattle free agent Raul Ibanez, has also drawn interest from the Braves. He’s 36, but has hit at least .280 with a .345 OBP for the past eight seasons and totaled at least 20 homers and 100 RBI for each of the past three seasons.
Great clubhouse guy, good character, fits the Braves’ mold in that regard, and wouldn’t command a long-term deal. He only made $5.5 mill last season and hit .293 with 43 doubles, 23 homers, 110 RBI and a .358 OBP, the fifth consecutive season with a plus-.350 OBP and seventh in a row with more than 30 doubles.
He’s solid, folks, and the Braves are one in a field of suitors that could include the Phillies, Mets, Cubs, Cardinals and Rangers, among others.
Diversions: First, The Sopranos and The Wire were put to rest at HBO, and now The Shield is coming to an end at FX. What promises to be a deliciously, impossibly tense 90-minute series finale next next. I don’t want it to end, man. It’s too good. What must we do to get a Vic Mackey spinoff? (Or do you folks believe that’s going to be impossible, that our very bad man is going to meet his maker in the finale? Oh, the drama.) And we’re also drawing to a season’s end with the excellent Sons of Anarchy, which better be brought back for a second season or else I’ll march on FX headquarters with a blow torch like the one they used to burn off the SOA tattoo from a banished member’s back earlier this season. All I can say is, 24 had better bring something fresh and real to the table after its ridiculously long sabbatical, or it’s going to pale next to what we’ve had on FX.
A tune: Listening to the Cash/Dylan bootleg that one of our denizens was kind enough to burn for me a while back. Never tire of this thing, and can’t believe they never released this as a proper album. It’s incredible.
Anyway, I’m on another Cash jag lately. Here’s another that J.R. wrote himself, which contains one of my favorite lines ever (“I met here accidentally in St. Paul, Minnesota”).
”BIG RIVER” by Johnny Cash
Now I taught the weeping willow how to cry,
And I showed the clouds how to cover up a clear blue sky.
And the tears that I cried for that woman are gonna flood you Big River.
Then I’m gonna sit right here until I die.
I met her accidentally in St. Paul, Minnesota.
And it tore me up every time I heard her drawl, Southern drawl.
Then I heard my dream was back Downstream cavortin’ in Davenport,
And I followed you, Big River, when you called.
Then you took me to St. Louis later on, down the river.
A freighter said she’s been here but she’s gone, boy, she’s gone.
I found her trail in Memphis, but she just walked up the block.
She raised a few eyebrows and then she went on down alone.
Now, won’t you batter down by Baton Rouge, River Queen, roll it on.
Take that woman on down to New Orleans, New Orleans.
Go on, I’ve had enough; dump my blues down in the gulf.
She loves you, Big River, more than me.
Now I taught the weeping willow how to cry, cry, cry
And I showed the clouds how to cover up a clear blue sky.
And the tears that I cried for that woman are gonna flood you Big River.
Then I’m gonna sit right here until I die.
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Is the Peavy thing over? We think not
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Hello, it’s good to be back and all that. Froze my butt off watching my Jayhawks get their butts whipped by Texas at Lawrence, but the trip was worthwhile because I saw my brother’s family, spent time with old friends, and got my fix of Gates BBQ in Kansas City.
Now, where were we?
Oh, yes, the Jake Peavy saga. So, anything happen while I was out of town? (Actually, I got the call from Frank Wren about the Braves bailing out on the Peavy deal on Friday afternoon as I stood in a Blockbuster video store in K.C., getting movies for my nephew who just had ACL knee surgery.)
Anyway, a lot of team officials and agents I spoke with out at the GM meetings two weeks ago thought that Peavy would be the first domino to fall in the offseason game pitching musical chairs.
Wrong.
Looks like the first to fall is Ryan Dempster, about to re-up with the Cubs for four years at about $13 mill per.
This development today coming just after the Yankees made their two huge offers, to C.C. Sabathia (six years and a cool $140 million, give or take a few mill) and A.J. Burnett (five years, $80 million, though a Yankees official has disputed that figure; I’m guessing it was probably more like four years an an option. But Boston is also after Burnett, so it’s probably only a matter of time until there is a five-year offer on the table if there isn’t now.)
Anyway, as you can see, the price of front-line pitching ain’t getting any cheaper, folks. In fact, this top-tier free-agent spending might be the only place in America that doesn’t seem to be affected by the real-world economic meltdown.
Anyway, with Dempster off the market, and Sabathia never in the Braves’ price range, and Burnett eyeing a five-year, $16 mill-per-season offer from the Yankees, it looks like the Braves’ best shot at landing a No. 1-caliber starting pitcher might be this right-hander that payroll-purging San Diego is offering.
Dude named Peavy.
No, but seriously….
Since Matt Cain is not available (sorry, folks) and neither, probably, is Zack Greinke (sorry again, folks), and since Derek Lowe’s represented by Scott Boras and thus not likely to sign for, oh, at least a month or two, and with the Yankees looking for at least two starters and other big-market teams including the Dodgers, Mets and Angels looking for at least one, you can see where the free-agent market might not be the easiest place for a team with any sort of payroll restrictions to fill its needs.
Which is why Peavy made the most sense for the Braves, and still does, if you ask me. And no, I don’t believe that the Braves have shut the door on this potential blockbuster.
And no, Peavy has not told friends he doesn’t want to pitch for the Braves. He and his agent gave the Padres a list of five teams for which Jake would considering waiving his no-trade clause in a potential deal, and since they made that list nothing has changed about the city of Atlanta, its location in proximity to Peavy’s native Alabama, or its franchise and its chances, whatever they might be, of contending for a playoff spot next season.
Of course, one other team on that list is the Chicago Cubs, who I’m figuring would be less inclined, not more, to sweeten their original offer for Peavy, now that Dempster’s back in the fold.
And the Yankees? Folks, with the money they have to throw around, do you really think there’s a good chance that a. They would give up their best young pitchers in a deal for Peavy, and b. that Peavy would reverse course and suddenly decide that, hey, living in Gotham for half the year might not be so bad after all? Come on.
Yes, to me a Braves-Padres deal still just makes too much sense for it not to happen.
And by the way, those of you who are happy the Braves didn’t trade Yunel Escobar to San Diego for Peavy, don’t get too excited. As much as I like Yunel and believe he might become a very good to great all-around major league shortstop, I also know that if the Braves were willing to trade him for Peavy, there’s probably a good chance his name will or already has come up in another trade proposal this winter.
One way or another, I think the Braves will deal either Escobar or Kelly Johnson in a trade to fill one of their primary needs, whether that’s for a starting pitcher or to get a power-hitting outfielder like Ryan Ludwick.
Once the anger and/or frustration between Braves and Padres officials simmers a bit and cooler heads prevail, and once Padres GM Kevin Towers realizes that he can’t keep asking the salesman to keep adding accessories after the price for the car has already been agreed upon (just easing to offseason analogy mode; stick with me folks, just got back from a brief vacation), then I do believe this deal can and probably will still get done.
As I said, just makes too much sense for both teams. Braves need an ace, and will have to outbid the Yankees and others for a pitcher comparable to Peavy, who’s going to get paid $63 mill over the next four seasons or $81 mill for the next five, depending on whether his option is exercised.
You want Dempster at $13 mill per season for four years, or A.J. Burnett (check out his year-by-year innings totals) at $16 mill per season for five years, or the 27-year-old 2007 NL Cy Young Award winner, Peavy, at just under $16 mill per season for four years or just over $16 mill per season for five.
Yes, you have to give up some very good talent, including Escobar, to get Peavy, but you’re going to pay him $1 mill less over five seasons than what Burnett could make if he takes that offer from the Yankees (and that’s just a first offer, it might go higher when other teams bid for A.J.).
Just call up their stats and tell me which pitcher you want at the top of your rotation over the next five seasons. And no, I don’t mean compare their stats simply from this season. At least look back two or three years to get a representative sample of their work.
By the way, Peavy held batters to a .229 average this season, including .194 by right-handers (second in the NL) and .184 by all hitters with runners in scoring position (third in the league). Peavy’s 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings ranked fourth in the NL this season, just ahead of Dan haren (8.58), and this wasn’t one of Peavy’s best seasons.
I see a lot of names thrown about here of alternatives that would cost the Braves a lot less, including even the likes of Brad Penny. Nevermind that the Dodgers didn’t want him back after the way he handled things this year. Do you people realize he’s pitched 200 innings just once in the past seven seasons, and never struck out 150 in that span?
That he had a 6.27 ERA this season, and that left-handers batted .328 against him, and that all hitters batted an unsightly .375 against with runners on base, worst among NL starters? Please. Can we never bring that option up again this winter?
As for Lowe: Hey, I’m with you. Many Braves came to me at the end of the season and said he’s the guy they hoped the Braves would pursue hardest (this was before any of them knew Peavy would be available).
But as I mentioned, he’s repped by Scott Boras. Now, Wren and Boras actually have a good relationship, nothing like John Schuerholz and Boras. But can the Braves wait around for a month or more and hope that they land Lowe, while most of the other top-of-rotation starters available start to get signed or traded?
Regarding Lowe. I hear a lot of folks here talk about how dependable he is (and they’re right, he doesn’t go on the DL, doesn’t miss starts) and what a horse he is.
That’s fine. But do you realize how much more dominant Peavy is than Lowe? In the past five seasons, Lowe is 68-60 with a 3.91 ERA, .264 opponents’ average and 668 strikeouts with 285 walks in 1,033-1/3 innings, while being provided with 5.4 support runs per nine innings pitched.
In that same period, Peavy is 68-43 with a 2.92 ERA, .225 opponents’ average and 1,007 strikeouts with 290 walks in 960-2/3 innings, while getting 4.97 support runs per nine innings.
In that period Peavy had an ERA that was a full run lower, and got run support a half-run lower per nine innings pitched, yet had the same number of wins and 339 more strikeouts with only five more walks in 73 fewer innings, most of the innings difference coming this year as a result of Peavy’s month on the DL.
Their numbers really aren’t even close. Peavy’s a different level of pitcher, but Lowe, who’s 35 (eight years older than Peavy), will likely get a salary comparable to Peavy’s on average over the next three or four years via free agency.
Diversions: Saw Role Models and laughed out loud at least a half-dozen times, always a good sign. Really is a hilarious movie. That made it two very good ones in a week for us, including RocknRolla…. The Shield is getting ridiculously tense and great leading up the series finale. I have no idea what’s gonna happen to my man Vic Mackey, but I’m thinking it’s probably not going to be pleasant…. Meanwhile, Sons of Anarchy, Prison Break and Entourage all are building toward much-anticipated finales. Great time to have a DVR, I tell you what. Particularly with college hoops starting up. Gotta watch games live, at least I do. Can any of you watch a game after the fact? Me, I’ve got a hard time doing that.
A tune: Nobody sings this one like Johnny, but the Whiskeytown cover on the second disc of their expanded Strangers Almanac is mighty fine.
”I STILL MISS SOMEONE” by Johnny Cash
At my door the leaves are falling
A cold, wild wind has come
Sweathearts walk by together
And I still miss someone
I go out on a party
And look for a little fun
But I find a darkened corner
because I still miss someone
Oh, no I never got over those blue eyes
I see them everywhere
I miss those arms that held me
When all the love was there
I wonder if she’s sorry
For leaving what we’d begun
There’s someone for me somewhere
And I still miss someone
Latest comments
I think that Campillo tailed off way too much Ron, to count on him as much more than a long reliever this year. If he steps back up and does more than that, it’s all gravy. I am just fine with this trade. I would have liked... read the full comment by Moby Grape | Comment on Hampton is gone, while Peavy is ... Read Hampton is gone, while Peavy is ...
Finally some activity! However, while a lot of people are already evaluating this trade, I believe it is way too early to do just that. Let’s wait and see until April and evaluate then? Putting together a team is like a puzzle and the Braves are... read the full comment by GermanBravesFan | Comment on Hampton is gone, while Peavy is ... Read Hampton is gone, while Peavy is ...
Just ignore * N8* nolie. He’s a passive-aggressive little pr1ck who stokes his ego by irritating people while hiding in anonymity behind his computer and venting to release his pent up frustrations. Whenever you challenge his statements... read the full comment by Moby Grape | Comment on Hampton is gone, while Peavy is ... Read Hampton is gone, while Peavy is ...
Frank Wren is due a pat on the back for pulling this trade off. The rotation lacked seasoned veterans and Wren picked one up at a very budget friendly price. Don’t look now, but the Braves don’t have any huge sums owed to any player... read the full comment by kirkinga | Comment on Hampton is gone, while Peavy is ... Read Hampton is gone, while Peavy is ...