This blog has moved! Yes, already!
As of Thursday, Feb. 12, this little blog has relocated to a new home on AJC.com. It’s the same newspaper, the same Web site and the same writer (feel free to groan) — there’s just a new URL.
New features: Bigger type, more graphics, comments that load 10 times faster and a larger and more recent photo that makes me look pretty doggone old. I think you’ll like it (the blog, not the photo). But I am, as we know too well, often wrong.
Home > Mark Bradley > Archives > 2008 > August > 31
Sunday, August 31, 2008
Restoring Braves’ luster will take years
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The era of eminence has ended. The Braves are weaker than at any time since 1990, and they’re apt to get worse before they get better.
They geared up for one last stand, but we see now that gearing up was also a masking action. By banking so heavily on aging pitchers and one high-priced rental, they sought to hide how threadbare this organization has become. Then the pitchers got hurt and Mark Teixeira got traded, and as we scan next season’s prospective roster we’re moved to ask: Is this all there is?
Frank Wren, the general manager since October 2007, believes his team “has the resources and the foundation” to retool. “We still need pieces,” he said, “but we don’t need a major overhaul.”
Hearing, a man asked: “Pieces?”
Said Wren: “They’re not little pieces — they’re big pieces.”
To look at this team is to see only two big-time players, and one of those will turn 37 in April. Writing for SI.com, Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus offered a ranking of the top 50 players around which an organization could build, and only one Brave — Brian McCann, at No. 11 — made the list. Chipper Jones, who has missed 24 games since June 1, was included as an “honorable mention.”
As it stands, Jair Jurrjens — who’s 22 and who has won two of nine starts since the All-Star break — would be the 2009 Opening Day pitcher. Three members of this proposed-but-never-intact rotation aren’t under contract beyond this season: Tom Glavine and Mike Hampton will be free agents, and John Smoltz failed to reach his vesting option by working the required 200 innings. And Tim Hudson, a fourth member, has had surgery. (As has Smoltz. As has Glavine.)
Wren: “It’s too early to talk to John and Tommy [about possible new contracts] until we get into the offseason and we have more information. There’s no sense talking about it now.”
The outfield is in similar shambles. Mark Kotsay is gone. Jordan Schafer, the heir apparent, was suspended 50 games for using HGH; now reinstated, he’s hitting .269 in Class AA with more strikeouts than hits. Jeff Francoeur is fighting to keep his average above .230. Matt Diaz hasn’t played since May. Gregor Blanco and Omar Infante have four homers between them.
Question: Do you see a “foundation”?
Yes, Wren could make a trade (or two, or three) to address deepening deficiencies, but who among Braves would yield the needed return? Yunel Escobar? (And who plays shortstop if he leaves?) Casey Kotchman? (Didn’t he just get here?) Jarrod Saltalamacchia? (Whoops, already did that deal.)
Then there’s free agency. The Braves have sworn off big-ticket signings for a decade, but there’s really no other option. With the $37 million that’s no longer earmarked for Smoltz, Hampton and Glavine, Wren has to take a look. He probably won’t like what he finds. Can anyone outbid the Yankees for CC Sabathia? Is Pat Burrell, who has had two 100-RBI seasons, worth $15 million per annum? Is Adam Dunn, who has had three?
“I don’t know what we’re going to pay [in free agency], but it has to be a function of putting together a whole team,” Wren said. “Our overriding view is that you put a team together, not just one player.”
That, sad to say, is the point. The Braves, who are 222-239 since Opening Day 2006, no longer have many real players, nor are they much of a team. The “great, grand organization” — John Schuerholz’s description — is just another mediocrity. Restoring its luster will take years.
Not months. Years.
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Decision to start Ryan was careful, correct
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
They brought back Marion Campbell for a second term as head coach. They fired Jerry Glanville only to promote his No. 1 assistant. They traded up to draft Reggie Kelly.
There have been so many times we’ve wondered if the Falcons had any idea what they were doing that doubt has become a conditioned response, but this time should be different. Starting Matt Ryan at quarterback in Week 1 of Season 1 might or might not work out, but it isn’t a choice made on some light and airy whim.
This administration can cite all the unpromising precedents. They know about David Carr. They know about Tim Couch. Heck, Thomas Dimitroff was working for the Cleveland Browns when Couch was drafted and handed the keys to that franchise. But here’s what Dimitroff, now the Falcons’ general manager, said when asked before training camp if he’d be shocked were Ryan the opening day starter: “I would not be surprised.”
Looking back, the Falcons knew in minicamp. They might even have known the day they drafted him. Ryan has a presence that sets him apart. He might not be a physical specimen on the order of John Elway, but he has more than the requisite skills and an off-the-charts sense of purpose.
Over the past four months Ryan was asked repeatedly if he wanted to start right away, and not once did he say, “I’ll do whatever the team wants — hold a clipboard, wear a ballcap, whatever.” Here’s what Ryan did say: “I think everyone should be disappointed if he doesn’t start.”
In the grand scheme, the easier (and less-scrutinized) course would have been to nurse Ryan for the first month or two, to let him wait behind Chris Redman. The Falcons took a long look and decided Ryan needs no nursing. He’s already their best quarterback. At the most difficult position, he’s as ready as any rookie can be.
This isn’t to say he won’t struggle. This isn’t to say he’ll ever be an All-Pro. But if Ryan fails, it won’t be because the Falcons moved without regard to his future. For once, this frazzled franchise has made a considered decision.
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