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Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Phillies win the Series….
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
always a great, fun scene on the field when a team takes it all.
Except of course when it’s the Yankees. But that hasn’t happened in a while.
Which is good.
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The 30-minute Obamathon
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
With Barack Obama holding a significant but not decisive lead in the polls, his decision to buy 30 minutes of uninterrupted airtime on NBC, CBS, FOX, Univision, BET, MSNBC and TV One (8 p.m. Eastern) can be seen as either a bold bid to press and broaden his advantage to possibly landslide proportions or an unnecessary, even grandiose gamble.
Personally, I think it’s a little of both. He’s certainly not playing it conservative, in the non-political sense of the word.
It’s also true, though, that the move is a natural extension of his campaign strategy. From the beginning, he has been committed to fighting this out on a national stage, even in states where most experts said he had no chance, and he’s sticking to the plan to the end. You know, places like Georgia? And Virginia?
You dance with the girl who brung you, as the saying goes….
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Mysterious memo emerges in Senate race
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
It is the fate of most Libertarian candidates to be ignored.
That may not be the fate of Allen Buckley, the Libertarian candidate for U.S. Senate here in Georgia.
In fact, if you believe a leaked memo attributed to McLaughlin & Associates, a national Republican polling and research firm with offices in Virgnia and New York, Buckley may be about to hit the big time, drawing the kind of attention that only the big boys get.
In polls, Buckley has been drawing 2 to 6 percent of the vote in a Senate race that has gotten a lot closer in recent weeks. Under Georgia law, which requires the winning candidate to get a majority of the votes, that would probably be enough to force the race into a runoff Dec. 2.
That possibility has drawn a lot of attention, not just here in Georgia but nationally as well. With Democrats within reach of 60 Senate seats, the magic number needed to prevent filibusters, the seat now held by Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss has become a critical hold for the GOP. And typically, incumbents drawn into a runoff don’t do well.
According to the suspicious three-page memo Page 1 | Page2 | Page 3., faxed anonymously to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, McLaughlin & Associates supposedly conducted a series of polls immediately after debates among the three candidates.
“There is an alarming shift in key demographic segments that do not bode well for the Senator,” the memo states. “Our data indicates that support among the 35-50 and 50-65 white male segment is softening. It also appears that they [are] trending towards the Libertarian candidate.”
The memo, on what purports to be McLaughlin & Associates letterhead, was allegedly written by Brian Larkin, director of qualitative research at McLaughlin. When contacted at his office in New York Tuesday, Larkin denied any knowledge or involvement. When I mentioned I had the alleged memo in my hand, on McLaughlin letterhead with his name as its author, the phone went silent for a few moments. Larkin then asked for my phone number and promised to return the call.
Ten minutes later, he called and again denied his company had conducted any polling in the Georgia race. Later that afternoon, company CEO and founder John McLaughlin called to strongly reiterate that claim, calling the memo a forgery.
Given its unknown source, we decided not to report on the memo unless we could tie down some loose ends. That decision changed when McLaughlin called late Wednesday morning to say he had leaked “to some of my media friends that somebody is trying to do this as a dirty trick,” and that other reporters may contact us for information on the story.
Now, somebody peddling phony poll numbers seems small potatoes as a dirty trick. What makes the memo potentially incendiary is not the numbers, but the narrative that follows:
“Based on the results of our Hyper-Local polling combined with the intelligence gathered from the media sweep, we believe the runoff is unavoidable,” the memo states. “Our gravest concern is that in the post-election runoff environment, the democratic opponent will emerge as ‘the reasonable choice’. That combined with what is certain to be a monumental democratic ‘get out the vote’ campaign in the wake of an Obama victory spells real trouble for the client.
“Steve, I’ve had the opportunity to discuss your client’s situation with KR. He is as alarmed as we are due to the implications on the national scene. As you are no doubt aware, your client’s seat might well be number 60 if we can’t turn this thing around. “To avoid this messy situation, we recommend the following actions:
“Dispatch an action team to conduct the neglected opposition research on the Libertarian candidate. Our operatives will leave no stone unturned. A complete review of his income tax records, marriage records, student records and criminal records as well as detailed financial information must be obtained ASAP.
“Since the Libertarian candidate has utilized AM Talk Radio for the majority of his negative efforts, this would be the venue to launch the client’s counterassault. Radio ads must be prepared detailing some of the Libertarian party’s controversial stands on the issues such as drug law, gay marriage and abortion.
“A major effort must be made in the blogosphere to ridicule the Libertarian candidate from as many sources and directions as possible. Attacks must be made from the right and the left, spurious claims should be made while hiding under the cloak of anonymity the internet affords.
In closing, please have the contract signed and returned with payment in full.” On its website, McLaughlin lists the National Republican Senatorial Committee as a client, and describes Larkin as a former NRSC employee. The committee, chaired by Sen. John Ensign of Nevada, is dedicated to electing and re-electing Republicans to the Senate.
However, McLaughlin says his company has done no work for the committee this election cycle. “This is bizarre,” he said, “a total invention, although somebody clearly went through a lot of trouble.” He said he may refer the matter to law enforcement.
Buckley said he has no idea whether the memo is legitimate, although “I suspected that if I became a threat they would try to dig up some dirt on me.”
“I’m not an angel but there’s nothing in my past I’m worried about.”
“I know from Republicans that a lot of them are getting behind me,” Buckley said. “A lot more would be if they weren’t so worried about the 60-vote thing.”
If he is able to push the race into a runoff, Buckley said, he plans to require Chambliss and Democrat Jim Martin to make a signed public commitment of fiscal responsibility in return for his endorsement.
This has already been a strange election season. But come Nov. 5, it would become stranger still should a Georgia Libertarian become kingmaker of the U.S. Senate, his influence critical in determining whether Democrats make it to 60 seats.
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At the intersection of God and politics
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
In California, voters face a decision on Proposition 8, which would reverse a decision by the state’s Supreme Court legalizing gay marriage. Supporters of the ban are trying to frame the issue as a question of religious freedom, claiming that without the proposition, churches would be required to conduct gay marriage ceremonies against their will. That is not the case, but some people believe a lie can be put in service of the truth.
The fervor behind the measure is, well, pretty fervent, as you’ll see (H/T to Andrew Sullivan and the Daily Dish).
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The consequences of a Dem sweep
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Linda Feldman of the Christian Science Monitor has a nice piece this morning looking at the possibilities and pitfalls of one-party rule. It also includes an interesting nugget I’d missed from the recent Washington Post poll. A few excerpts:
“Washington may well be on the verge of becoming a one-party town, with Democratic Sen. Barack Obama looking strong to capture the presidency next Tuesday and Democrats poised to expand their majorities in both houses of Congress.
The history of one-party rule in America is fraught with triumphs and peril….
For Senator Obama, should he become president, the most relevant historical example is President Franklin Roosevelt, says presidential historian Robert Dallek.
“We were in dire straits,” says Mr. Dallek. “As Roosevelt said himself in his first inaugural, ‘This country is asking for action and action now.’ That’s what he gave them. In the first 100 days, he passed 15 major pieces of legislation. He couldn’t have done it unless he had a crisis and strong party support.”
Obama, too, appears poised to push initiatives in a range of areas, including a second economic stimulus package, healthcare reform, changes to tax policy, and energy reform. He has also pledged to begin, right away, the process of withdrawing US troops from Iraq….
Still, the American public is showing unprecedented support for one-party rule in Washington, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll. Fifty percent of likely voters say they would prefer that the same party control both the White House and Congress, a new high for that poll. Thirty percent said they wanted split-party rule.”
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