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Wednesday, October 22, 2008
AP poll puts margin at 1 point — is that possible?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
A new AP poll has given conservatives hope and liberals palpitations, putting Obama up by just one point among likely voters.
So far, though, that result’s an outlier. The latest Washington Post/ABC poll puts the margin among likely voters at 11; a new Fox poll puts it at nine, also among likely voters. So the tricky part seems to be in how you define a likely voter. (Among total respondents, the AP poll puts the margin at 10 points.)
To see how that can affect a poll, take a look at Gallup’s tracking poll, which slices its data three ways. Among registered voters, Gallup puts the margin at nine points. Among those judged as likely voters by their own statements, the margin is eight points. And among those judged as likely voters based on their own statements AND their history of voting, the Gallup margin is five. In that third version, a voter who has never voted but insists she will vote this time may not be classified as a likely voter.
So in other words, how much credence does a pollster give to those who claim to be motivated to participate this time, even though they don’t have a record of voting in the past?
Based on turnout in early voting, I’d say that a lot of those people are actually showing up. But AP is less convinced. Maybe they’re right — we’ll know in 12 days and a few hours.
By the way, there’s a hilarious piece by Roger Simon at Politico, headlined “Democrats’ gloom deepens,” about the refusal of many Obama supporters to believe the poll numbers.
“The Democrats are poised on the brink of victory. And they cannot stand it. The news is too good. Something has to go wrong.
On Saturday, Charlie Cook, an independent analyst and author of the Cook Report, wrote: “This election isn’t over, but it is looking very bad for Republicans — and seems to be getting worse.”
This plunged the Democrats into a deep gloom. Good news is always bad news for them.”
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Palin’s $150,000 wardrobe upgrade
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
From Politico’s Jeanne Cummings:
The Republican National Committee has spent more than $150,000 to clothe and accessorize vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin and her family since her surprise pick by John McCain in late August.
According to financial disclosure records, the accessorizing began in early September and included bills from Saks Fifth Avenue in St. Louis and New York for a combined $49,425.74.
The records also document a couple of big-time shopping trips to Neiman Marcus in Minneapolis, including one $75,062.63 spree in early September.
Does “real America” drop 75 grand at Neiman Marcus? Does “small-town America” shop at Saks Fifth Avenue?
I was torn about even posting on this story, in part because it’s only natural that Palin and her family would need a wardrobe upgrade to play the parts they’ve been handed on the national stage. Washington ain’t Wasilla.
But $150 grand does seem excessive, particularly given Palin’s claim that she is the candidate answering the call of the little man, ready to grasp the broom of reform to sweep this country clean. You can’t play the part of anti-elitist populist wearing outfits that cost more than many voters make in a year of hard work.
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“I’ll take GOP presidential candidates for $500, Alex”
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
This is the first year since 1972 that the Republican presidential ticket has not included a Bush or a Dole.
But Mark Halperin of Time magazine asks: What was the last winning Republican ticket that did not include a Nixon or Bush? And here’s his answer.
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McCain gets big endorsement…
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
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from al Qaeda, according to the Washington Post:
“Al-Qaeda will have to support McCain in the coming election,” said a commentary posted Monday on the extremist Web site al-Hesbah, which is closely linked to the terrorist group. It said the Arizona Republican would continue the “failing march of his predecessor,” President Bush.
… the comments summarized what has emerged as a consensus view on extremist sites, said Adam Raisman, a senior analyst for the Site Intelligence Group, which monitors Islamist Web pages. Site provided translations of the comments to The Washington Post.
“The idea in the jihadist forums is that McCain would be a faithful ‘son of Bush’ — someone they see as a jingoist and a war hawk,” Raisman said. “They think that, to succeed in a war of attrition, they need a leader in Washington like McCain.”
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