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Friday, October 17, 2008
Rove’s “math” still looks dire for McCain
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Karl Rove — you remember, the guy who claimed to have “THE math” back in 2006? — has gotten a lot of attention for his piece yesterday in the Wall Street Journal. A lot of people seized upon it as evidence that Obama’s lead may not be quite what it seems.
Said Rove:
“Barack Obama holds a 7.3% lead in the Real Clear Politics average of all polls, but the latest Gallup tracking poll reveals that there are nearly twice as many undecided voters this year than there were in the last presidential election. The Investor’s Business Daily/TIPP poll (which was closest to the mark in predicting the 2004 outcome — 0.4% off the actual result) now says this is a three-point race.”
But Rove’s bottom line was a lot more sobering for the GOP. He lists a string of states that McCain must focus on — Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Missouri, Colorado and Nevada, “If he carries those states, while losing only Iowa and New Mexico from the GOP’s 2004 total, Mr. McCain will carry 274 Electoral College votes and the White House. It’s threading the needle, but it’s come to that,” says Rove.
But if you look, McCain is losing in all of those must-have states, some by just a bit, but Virginia, Florida and Colorado by five points or more. And in his conclusion, Rove acknowledges the dire situation for the McCain campaign.
“Whether it can find the right formula in the next 19 days to dig out is a question. If Mr. McCain succeeds, he will have engineered the most impressive and improbable political comeback since Harry Truman in 1948. But having to reach back more than a half-century for inspiration is not the place campaign managers want to be now.”
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Sarah Palin: When worlds collide
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
“Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin plans to appear on Saturday Night Live this weekend, multiple sources told CNN Thursday.”
Well that ought to be a ratings bonanza….
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