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Wednesday, October 15, 2008
That debate was really something
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Well, that was fascinating. The most entertaining and informative debate in the series. The American people got a real sense of the differences between these two men. Schieffer did a very good job as moderator.
My own sense is that Obama carried the day, but that’s to be expected. The test of the debate will be how the American people respond to what they heard, because both men laid out their version of our country’s future pretty plainly and succinctly. The question is which version the people of America find more convincing.
The most surreal moment, of course, was the discussion of William Ayres, etc. McCain’s segue from bashing Obama in deeply confrontational and personal terms to his claim that his campaign was focused on the economic plight of the American people — well, that was special.
Now come the Libyan parrots (see tomorrow’s column).
UPDATE, 11 p.m.: After a few minutes to absorb it all, I think McCain’s performance was in a sense both a concession to Obama in this general election yet an honorable rallying of the Republican base to its basic principles. He told the American people that he is willing to win or lose on the basis of conservative principles, even though the truth is that under these circumstances, he will probably lose because conservative principles just aren’t all that attractive to voters at this point in our history. After eight years of Bush, that approach has lost all credibility.
And that’s not McCain’s fault.
UPDATE II: In CBS’ snap poll of 638 undecided voters (how they found that many uncommitted voters I’ll never know)”
“Fifty-three percent … identified Democratic nominee Barack Obama as the winner of tonight’s debate. Twenty-two percent said Republican rival John McCain won. Twenty-five percent saw the debate as a draw.
More uncommitted voters trusted Obama than McCain to make the right decisions about health care. Before the debate, sixty-one percent of uncommitted voters said that they trust Obama on the issue; after, sixty-eight percent said so. Twenty-seven percent trusted McCain to manage health care before the debate; thirty percent said so afterwards.
Sixty-four percent think Obama will raise their taxes, while fifty percent think McCain will. Before the debate, fifty-four percent thought Obama shared their values. That percentage rose to sixty-four percent after the debate. For McCain, fifty-two percent thought he shared their values before the debate, and fifty-five percent thought so afterwards.”
I’ve been leery of those snap polls, but in the previous two presidential and one vice presidential debates, their findings have been validated by later poll work.
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Final debate: On with the show, this is it!
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Well, here we go. In its latest tracking poll, Gallup puts the gap at seven. This will be McCain’s last big shot at changing the dynamics. As they used to sing on the Bugs Bunny cartoons, “on with the show, this is it!”
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Stage set for final debate
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The Dow Jones average fell more than 700 points today, the second largest fall in market history. (The largest fall came just two weeks ago.) Roughly 90 percent of Americans now believe our country is headed in the wrong direction. Tonight, the two men vying for the right to lead us out of this mess meet for their final debate.
And what’s the biggest question? Whether they will talk about some aging radical from the ’60s.
Discuss. We’ll put a fresh thread up just before the debate commences.
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Mahoney may not seek reelection
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
“Embattled Democratic Rep. Tim Mahoney may not seek reelection in Florida next month after ABC News broke a story earlier this week that the congressman had paid a former aide to keep quiet about their alleged affair, according to a Democratic leadership aide with ties to his campaign.”
If so, good. What a creep.
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Early voters strong for Obama, and possible good news for Jim Martin
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
According to a new poll by Survey USA, McCain leads Obama here in Georgia by eight points, 51-43. But the poll also breaks down the margin among those who have voted early, and those results echo the anecdotal evidence about a strong Obama tilt at early-voting sites.
According to the poll, 18 percent of Georgians have already voted, and Obama leads among those voters by 52-46 percent. In what may be good news for Jim Martin — who is down by three points overall in the poll — a similar pattern holds in the Senate race.
The internals also suggest that fears of a conservative backlash against Saxby Chambliss may be real. McCain — not a favorite of Georgia conservatives — gets 82 percent of the vote from self-described conservatives while Chambliss gets only 71 percent. Libertarian Allen Buckley draws off six percent on his own.
In other states, the tilt toward Obama by early voters is even more dramatic. Obama is up four in Ohio among those who haven’t voted yet, according to Survey USA, but up 18 among those who have voted already. In North Carolina, McCain is up five among those who haven’t voted yet, but Obama is up 34 percent among early voters.
For Obama, those early votes are money in the bank (a phrase admittedly not quite as reassuring as it used to be.) They also indicate a significant advantage in enthusiasm and operational skill among the Democrats. As Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com points out, this isn’t a typical voting pattern.
“According to a study by Kate Kenski at the University of Arizona, early voters leaned Republican in both 2000 and 2004; with Bush earning 62.2 percent of their votes against Al Gore, and 60.4 percent against John Kerry. In the past, early voters have also tended to be older than the voting population as a whole and more male than the population as a whole, factors which would seem to cut against Obama or most other Democrats.”
Maybe that’s why state Sen. Eric Johnson, a Republican, is now talking about ending or severely curtailing early voting in Georgia, just months after voting in favor of the bill that greatly expanded the practice.
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“W” won’t be “winner” at box office
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
I acknowledge that I’m probably not the target audience for “W.” I’ve never liked Oliver Stone movies. I’ve also never been happy with how George W. Bush has done his job as president. So an Oliver Stone movie about George W. Bush?
So while I’m probably not the best person to judge such things, I expect that movie to tank. During the Great Depression, Hollywood made Shirley Temple movies to distract their audiences. They didn’t make movies about Herbert Hoover. I just don’t think people are going to pay money to go see a movie about a guy they can’t stand seeing on their TV screens for free.
But maybe that’s just me….
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How a PSC candidate cheated you of millions
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
One of the more important races on the ballot pits Lauren “Bubba” McDonald against Jim Powell for an open seat on the Georgia Public Service Commission. Voters who cast ballots in that race based on party identification alone may do themselves a great disservice. Here’s why:
Back in 2001, PSC members were trying to set electricity rates charged by Georgia Power. A lot of money was at stake: Georgia Power wanted a $100 million rate increase, while some PSC staff members advocated $400 million in cuts.
At the time, McDonald was PSC chairman. At the last minute, he proposed a surprise 40-page agreement that he supposedly drafted himself and hadn’t shared with anyone, even members of his own staff.
In the interests of fairness, McDonald said, he would adjourn the hearing to give Georgia Power lawyers time to read over his plan. When they returned, they pronounced themselves satisfied with the deal, which the commission quickly approved. It cut Georgia Power rates by only $5 million a year.
Later, McDonald was defeated for re-election in 2002 by Republican upstart Angela Speir. In the six years since then, Speir has been a powerful advocate of reform and ethical behavior on the PSC. Thanks to a little detective work with e-mail and public documents, she also helped expose what had happened in the 2001 rate case.
Remember the deal that McDonald allegedly wrote himself? It had actually been drafted almost word for word by Georgia Power lawyers — the same lawyers later allowed to read the “surprise” document — and e-mailed to McDonald to propose as his own. Not only had McDonald secretly done the utility’s bidding, he created a lie to hide that fact from the Georgia public.
Unfortunately, Speir has decided not to seek re-election. McDonald is trying to regain his seat, and has switched party affiliation to run as a Republican this time. He is also collecting a lot of campaign money from utility lawyers and employees. Speir, a longtime Republican, has endorsed Democrat Jim Powell.
“If you look at Bubba McDonald’s [financial] disclosure, it reads like a Who’s Who list of utility lobbyists and lawyers,” Speir says. “If Georgia consumers want to have a voice that is not beholden to the utilities, then I firmly believe that Jim Powell is the best candidate.”
Powell is experienced and knowledgeable on energy issues, having retired as a U.S. Department of Energy executive. Just as important, he will bring an independent outlook to the commission at a time when the PSC may be asked to approve multibillion-dollar investments by Georgia Power and others for nuclear and coal plants. If Georgia voters want somebody to look out for their wallets and pocketbooks, Powell is the clear choice.
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