Jay Bookman

By "The Corporal"

October 8, 2008 1:16 PM | Link to this

and …… via Supreme Court appointments, a lot of our rights.

By Mrs. Godzilla

October 8, 2008 1:20 PM | Link to this

I, for one, am not surprised and I couldn’t be more pleased.

By ByteMe

October 8, 2008 1:39 PM | Link to this

Interestingly, Gallup is one of the few polling companies that does Spanish-language interviews as well as including cell phones, so they reach more of the population than landline-only polls.

I’m still not sure that it’s not an outlier, since it’s a 3-day rolling poll. If it holds for 2 days, I’ll be more impressed.

By Abomi Nation

October 8, 2008 1:40 PM | Link to this

This is getting ridiculous. How embarrassing for McCain.

I think Gallup should declare some sort of mercy rule. If a candidate gets to +12 during the last 4 weeks of the election they should put a stop to the 2008 daily tracking poll and replace it with a 2012 Daily Tracking poll.

That could be any day now. Obama’s lead does not include the large bump he will receive from the debate. Mercy.

By Taxpayer

October 8, 2008 1:41 PM | Link to this

Poor Grunt Corporal. All worried about those Supremes. Diana Ross was my favorite singer from that era. She had a great voice. What! Not those Supremes. Oh, those Supremes. Right, no Left. You are afraid that the world will come to an end if the current balance is maintained, is that it, Grunt. They re-write laws and turn the world upside down and shudder….you are such a silly person.

By Mrs. Godzilla

October 8, 2008 1:45 PM | Link to this

Democrats are Creative

By hillbilly ragger

October 8, 2008 1:47 PM | Link to this

“and …… via Supreme Court appointments, a lot of our rights.”

Corporal, given the ages and alliances of those Supreme Court justices likely to retire in the next four years, that’s one area where conservatives aren’t likely to see much change any time soon. You’ll almost certainly have, in 2012, the same 5-4 majority you have now.

By Mrs. Godzilla

October 8, 2008 1:51 PM | Link to this

Subprime Suspects The right blames the credit crisis on poor minority homeowners. This is not merely offensive, but entirely wrong.

By Joey

October 8, 2008 1:52 PM | Link to this

Evidence that polls are just tools of the trade: Rasmussen has it 51 - 45.

I am guessing that Jay’s use of this tool is to pump up Democrats and agitate non-Democrats.

By ByteMe

October 8, 2008 1:55 PM | Link to this

Corporal: what right exactly are you worried about losing? Were you just as worried about the way Bush was tossing some of your rights out in the backyard to rot by labeling certain people “enemy combatents” and holding them for 7+ years without representation or trial or charges? Have you joined the ACLU yet to make sure someone is there to defend your 1st Amendment rights if you do something unpopular?

Or by “rights” did you mean “rightwings”? :)

By ByteMe

October 8, 2008 1:59 PM | Link to this

Jay: And how does Zogby have the gap at 2%? Which is the outlier and why?

By Dusty

October 8, 2008 2:02 PM | Link to this

Bookman,

Are you taking bets on this item or what? They don’t call you Bookie for nothing!!

To heck with journalism!! Who need needs it? The Democrats need all the encouragement they can get, so HEREsssss Bookie!

When’s the next horserace errr poll coming up? Here’s a ten spot, Bookie. Put it on McCain, a sure winner!!

By JAY BOOKMAN

October 8, 2008 2:05 PM | Link to this

I’ve been citing and following the Gallup three-day tracking poll all along, as the so-called gold standard of tracking polls. That way you can’t get accused of cherry-picking from poll to poll for the results you want.

Or at least, the accusation won’t have much merit.

By Dusty

October 8, 2008 2:09 PM | Link to this

Does this mean I get my ten spot back? I knew this race was fixed.

By GOPs got to go

October 8, 2008 2:10 PM | Link to this

I believe Wooten may just owe you a dollar soo. If it were me, I would ask for a Euro instead.

By Bud Wiser

October 8, 2008 2:12 PM | Link to this

I should have known that Blue Bell would give you a sugar rush Jay.

Are these the same polls that had Kerry so far ahead of Bush?

By hillbilly ragger

October 8, 2008 2:15 PM | Link to this

Let’s get real—I really doubt Obama will win by 11% of the popular vote.

Still it’s interesting to consider what his “ceiling” really is, as is discussed in this 538 com post some in here might want to see…

By @@

October 8, 2008 2:16 PM | Link to this

Not saying that “your pole” has merit jay, but the “down-ticket Republicans” reminded me of advice a pundit offered. Rather than target the terrorist pal as Ayers, McCain should support the lib argument that one party holding all three branches is terroristic.

The libs have been complaining about it for years. No checks and balances on a party that struck the match (Fannie/Freddie) on the today’s economic meltdown leaving all of us with a huge ‘twer-d on our plates.

By Abomi Nation

October 8, 2008 2:24 PM | Link to this

I think there is support for the daily Gallup.

Recent polls have Obama up in almost every single swing state right now. All of the remaining swing states were Bush states in 2004. Obama doesn’t trail in any state that Kerry carried. Obama is solid in a few Bush states. Obama has a very motivated base.

The evidence says Obama has a healthy lead right now.

By JAY BOOKMAN

October 8, 2008 2:38 PM | Link to this

@@, you make a good point. I too think that would be a good approach for the GOP. But your own comment explains why the Republicans haven’t adopted that argument … at least not yet.

In your comment, you are clearly reluctant to accept the poll’s suggestion that McCain may be toast, and I understand that. This thing isn’t over — it’s too early to concede.

However, if the Republicans want to make the argument you advocate, they would first have to publicly acknowledge that McCain is going to lose. Only then can they start using the spectre of President Obama as leverage, pointing out to voters that with the Democrats in control of the White House, it would be dangerous to give them too much power in Congress as well.

So far, down-ticket Republicans just aren’t willing to divorce themselves from McCain and toss him overboard.

So far.

By AJC/DNC Management

October 8, 2008 2:39 PM | Link to this

Gallup being the only poll that didn’t pick up McCain’s bounce following the Palin pick or the Repug convention.

Plus, they do not disclose who they are surveying, democrats or Republicans.

The general-election results are based on combined data from Oct. 5-7, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,747 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.

My guess is they are calling more democrats by about a margin of ………………..52% to 41%.

By Bemused Humanist

October 8, 2008 2:41 PM | Link to this

When examining polls, check the Dem/GOP/Independent breakdown, whether the pollsters adjust for it. Same for the age distribution, which, if the weight assigned to younger voters is high enough, should correct for the cell phone only problem.

Hi Dusty. Still reading Dorothy Parker?

— B.H.

By Mr Snarky

October 8, 2008 2:47 PM | Link to this

The electorate is doing simple math. McCain-Palin does not equal Change. Change we want and change we will get.

By AJC/DNC Management

October 8, 2008 2:47 PM | Link to this

Meanwhile, Zogby says:

UTICA, New York - The race for President of the United States remains far too close to call between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain as both candidates head toward the finish line, a recent Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking telephone polls shows.

There are lots of different Koolaids out there you can drink.

Rasmussen Election 2008: New Hampshire Democratic Primary Final New Hampshire Poll: Obama 37% Clinton 30%

Uh, Klinton won by 3%.

Don’t let these libs depress you, fellow Cons, the more people get to know about Oblahma, the less they like him.

So let’s tell his story.

By Taxpayer

October 8, 2008 3:00 PM | Link to this

Here comes another one of those favored Republican strategies yet again. When you can’t sell your own product, try to degrade the competitor’s product. These Republicans know no shame with their blatant lies and yet their Christian base still stands loyal. Or, do they. I think there are some serious cracks opening up and it’s really ugly behind that decayed facade known to us as John, Big Bad John. Even the lipsticked Palin and her vile remarks about palin’ around with terrorists won’t provide enough of a distraction. What other evil tricks have you got left, Republicans.

By Paul

October 8, 2008 3:04 PM | Link to this

@@ - Jay

Just another bad side effect of the Democratic Party and the Republican Party shutting out third parties. Or fourth parties or fifth parties.

Money and power. It always gets back to money and power.

By N-GA

October 8, 2008 3:12 PM | Link to this

I agree, Paul.

Ross almost made it, then he forgot to take his meds one day and we got to know him better.

By N-GA

October 8, 2008 3:19 PM | Link to this

What ever happened to rushncap?

By Mrs. Godzilla

October 8, 2008 3:20 PM | Link to this

Josh Marshall is reporting:

John McCain just referred to the country as “my fellow prisoners.”

“Across this country, this is the agenda i have set before my fellow prisoners and the same standards of clarity and candor must now be applied to my opponent.”

Video should be added shortly.

By RW-(the original)

October 8, 2008 3:20 PM | Link to this

Jay B,

This isn’t a poll, but what do you think about the announcement that our next Vice President will be John McCain?

Team Obama better hand out a teleprompter to everybody they put on stage.

By AJC/DNC Management

October 8, 2008 3:21 PM | Link to this

Republican strategists have also pushed prosecutors to go after allegedly fraudulent voters. Those GOP strategists know better: One study after another has shown that voter fraud is, at worst, extremely rare.-Queen Pinko, Urinal

Uh- huh:

Lake County, Ind., election officials this month rejected thousands of registration forms ACORN had turned in from its drives this summer. On a conference call yesterday, GOP officials noted that up to 11,000 of the applications were no good - tying up election officials and jeopardizing the voting rights of untold victims whose identities may have been stolen.-Fox News

One lib pushes fake polls, the other lib pushes fake voters.

Democracy be damned, eh?

By @@

October 8, 2008 3:24 PM | Link to this

However, if the Republicans want to make the argument you advocate, they would first have to publicly acknowledge that McCain is going to lose.

‘Ya know jay, one of the things that has eluded John McCain in this campaign is that he couldn’t distance himself from Bush. I, for one, don’t see him as Bush II — never have. Whether it was out of respect for the office, or to win over the staunch conservatives is a question only he can answer.

But if the leftists wanna believe that McCain is Bush II, then they’ll have to accept OBlahMa as Bush IV. He started out as one candidate and then morphed into someone entirely different. He’s sounding more and more like Bush in his foreign policy approaches when it comes to national defense. While McCain is sounding less like Bush with the exception of Iraq.

I would know what I was getting with McCain. Can you say, without a doubt, that you know what you’re getting with OBlahMa? A pandering politician perhaps?

A comment left somewhere? by a Vietnam veteran:

In the debate last night, as far as I saw it, MaCain was more realistic about how business is conducted in Washington. He kept stressing, we have to work together to reach bilateral agreements if we are going to get this country back on track again. Although Obama made implications to that effect he merely stressed what he would do, as if, Washington were his private household and not the umbrella of the American people.

OBlahMa left the viewing public to believe that he is a one-man operation, a dictator if you will. He left the people to dream without clearly defining the nightmares of what it’s like to get anything done in Washington. With all three branches dominated by dems, it’ll be a repeat of the first four years of the Bush administration. It won’t serve the American people, it’ll serve a select group of the public, the majority of which is not as far left as OBlahMa, in FACT.

If he wins, he’ll be dealing with unprecedented problems which he’s too inexperienced to handle. Even many of the leftists here have said neither would be able to get us out of the economic mess. When he fails, it will set the Democratic Party back for decades to come. Voters are fickle creatures.

The most unfortunate thing about his inability to fix it is he’ll be the first and last African American candidate in my lifetime. That’s not a racist comment jay. He was a commodity pushed onto the market by the dems, while knowing full well he was not equipped to deal with the unknown. Their lamb to the slaughter.

Sad but true.

By Clem

October 8, 2008 3:25 PM | Link to this

Didja know that McShame’s Vietnam “buddies” sarcastically called him “Ace McCain” cause of the 4 planes he himself sloppily destroyed, being a P-poor pilot? No one wanted to fly with him as wingman. Course that fact’s been available for years. Wonder why the “librul press” hasn’t shoved it at him? Shucks golly, you can even look it up under “Ace McCain,” I bethca!

By RW-(the original)

October 8, 2008 3:28 PM | Link to this

The Gallup Daily tracking poll won’t release the internals, but it says right on their results page that they account for cell phones.

They sound like the outliers, but if they account for cell phones and others don’t that could explain part of the difference. The problem is that Gallup tracks registered voters rather than likely voters and the cell phone only crowd is the least reliable voting block, so they may be weighting them too heavily.

By Mr Snarky

October 8, 2008 3:28 PM | Link to this

Time for Johnny Mac to get all mavericky on Obama! It’s just like Top Gun. Maverick vs. Iceman, with Sarah Palin as Goose…not a happy ending for Goose though. And of course Ice Man (Val Kilmer) did win the Top Gun trophy. We just need a round of beach volleyball to settle this…sorry, not a pretty image! I think McCain’s lost that lovin feeling. He did get the girl though.

By Mike

October 8, 2008 3:28 PM | Link to this

I agree with Bookman here. The Dems are going to have full control of Congress and the White House until 2010 at least.

By E

October 8, 2008 3:32 PM | Link to this

While campaigning in Pennsylvania today, McCain said:

Across this country, this is the agenda I have set before my fellow prisoners…

(http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYFm5kK4f1k)

Obama/Biden ‘08

By Tom

October 8, 2008 3:34 PM | Link to this

Joe Six-Packs of the world, UNITE!!

Oh, you already have. Called Repugs. Certainly something of which to be proud, eh?!

By Mr Snarky

October 8, 2008 3:38 PM | Link to this

Maverick…not! Read this for proof.

By Dusty

October 8, 2008 3:39 PM | Link to this

Bookman,

Americans already know how dangerous it is to have Democrats in control of Congress. WE KNOW the last two years have been disaster. WE KNOW Obama would be a catastrophe. Charm lasts a very short time and that is all Obama has to give us.

Hi there…Bemused Humanist 2:41

Nope, no Dorothy Parker. Right now it is William Blake and also the Rubiyat for fun while enjoying Boswell’s comments on Johnson.

Oh yes, Tiger! Tiger! burning bright,In the forest of the night, What immortal hand or eye, Could frame thy fearful symmetry. TIGER is one of my favorites..

By TN Gelding

October 8, 2008 3:46 PM | Link to this

Check out the latest Electoral College map.

The brood mare is still drawing huge crowds tho and the old fighter pilot that knows how to win wars, wants to appoint a commission to study Medicare, throw another $300 billion at the housing crisis and thinks the 1983 changes in Social Security are an example of good government at work is having to travel with her to be heard.

By AmVet

October 8, 2008 3:47 PM | Link to this

i hate to say this, but picking between these two candidates is like betting the farm on the Chicago White Sox OR the Chicago Cubs winning the World Series more than once between them every two hundred years.

Sure, it could happen. But you’re going to lose more money than being in the stock market right now. (Hey wait! Is that even possible?)

Lets face it, both of these politicians are exceptionally accomplish liars.

McCain talks about putting the military first.

First into George Bush’s meat grinder yes, but I don’t think that is what we have in mind.

He not only opposed a new GI Bill to help veterans get more money for an education, but skipped out on a vote on the bill, to attend a fundraiser with fat cat donors in San Diego.

How is putting political donors above veterans “putting the troops first?”

He’s had a number of votes that rejected greater funding for veterans health programs, that would be paid for by closing corporate tax loopholes.

How is helping the corporate crooks and plutocrats over the GIs “putting the troops first”?

He fully supported The Hero of the Texas ANG when Bush issued Executive Order 13223, allowing the administration to implement a “stop-loss” policy. Under stop-loss, “military personnel can be prevented from leaving the armed forces upon completing their enlistment terms.” (Stop-loss policies were created after the Vietnam War.) However, the Bush administration has overstretched the military by extensively using these orders to make up for declines in re-enlistment as the Iraq war drags on.

How is sending 70,000 soldiers and marines to that bungle in the non-jungle over and over and over and over again “putting the troops first”?

It isn’t.

And many veterans think he has been in DC so long, he has lost complete touch with the daunting issues facing men and women in uniform now.

Which is of no consequence to the neo-con chicken hawks who only pay lip service to them anyway…

By Paul

October 8, 2008 3:48 PM | Link to this

Clem 2:35

[[Didja know that McShame’s Vietnam “buddies” sarcastically called him “Ace McCain” cause of the 4 planes he himself sloppily destroyed, being a P-poor pilot? No one wanted to fly with him as wingman.]]

Well, I don’t suppose we can blame you for repeating that. Must’ve come from a Biden speech.

Link: Navy debunks McCain myth, commends piloting skills

By E

October 8, 2008 3:51 PM | Link to this

McCain’s out attacking today. But, that’s all he’s got. If he didn’t have that, he’d be immobilized.

There is absolutely, positively nothing else, nada.

McCain’s campaign has run out of gas, he’s pushing it to the finish line. His Super Maverick costume has got mothballs, and his sidekick Penelope Truck Stop doesn’t manifest the brain capacity to engage. For the next few weeks we’ll be listening to useless chatter - the equivalent of television white noise.

Maybe McCain can embellish on his preposterous, on-the-fly suggestion of Treasury buying up all of the bad mortgages, hahahahahahahaha.

What a doozy, and he’s fiscally conservative? That’s not an idea, that’s dementia. He needs bed rest.

Obama/Biden ‘08

By Bemused Humanist

October 8, 2008 3:54 PM | Link to this

RW:

Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com estimated the Obama undercount from cell phone only users at 2.2%. Sam Wang at Princeton (I believe; I am doing this from memory) estimated it at only 1.0%, as it is subsumed in pollster’s upping of the overall weight for young voters.

Either way, I believe it will more than compensates for what is left of the Bradley effect. A recent Harvard paper showed it to have diminished to virtually nothing in recent years (indeed, Harold Ford ran AHEAD of his final polls in his recent losing Senate race in Tennessee, not exactly a progressive state.)

— B. H.

By TN Gelding

October 8, 2008 3:55 PM | Link to this

Paul

October 8, 2008 3:48 PM

Two crashes, one shoot-down and a reckless clowning-around incident speak for themselves. Interpret it any way you want.

By Taxpayer

October 8, 2008 4:09 PM | Link to this

Of course, we all also believe that Big Bad John’s daddy would never ever ever pull any strings to help out his little temperamental spoiled brat.

By Bemused Humanist

October 8, 2008 4:13 PM | Link to this

Ah, Dusty, William Blake!

Again, from memory:

The Clod:

“Love seeketh not itself to please/Nor for itself hath any care/But for another gives it ease/And builds a Heaven in Hell’s despair.”

But the Pebble remains skeptical:

“Love seeketh only Self to please/To bind another to its delight/Joys in another’s loss of Ease/And builds a Hell in Heaven’s depite.”

“The Clod and the Pebble,” in Songs of Innocence and Experience, I believe. Enjoy!

— B.H.

By AmVet

October 8, 2008 4:25 PM | Link to this

TN Gelding, I must confess, I am ignorant about the details of Admiral McCain getting his son into Annapolis.

However, many Americans with connections, do similar things.

But at least, unlike this current, yellow, chest pounding, chicken hawk of a CIC, he actually showed up! And went into combat.

And incredibly those gutless swift-boaters went to bat for this fraud of a “mission accomplished” mf over one of the guys whp ut their a$$ on the line!

No wonder this country is till p!ssed at this Party of Abject Failure and Military Avoidance.

And @@ has it right, no matter how different he may or may not be from that Crawford Chicken, McCain cannot separate himself from the worst president ever.

And that, along with that blunderous VP choice has sunk his chances it would seem…

By RB from Gwinnett

October 8, 2008 4:30 PM | Link to this

Don’t anybody tell these liberals they have to win the election at the poll’s and not on Zogby, etc. These clowns don’t seem to remember all the pollsters being 10 pts off in every one of the latter Dem primaries showing Obama with big leads yet losing to Clinton.

AmVet, you get the post of the day. The fact we’re having to choose between these 2 is a sad commentary on where we are as a nation. Not good at all.

By RW-(the original)

October 8, 2008 4:34 PM | Link to this

B.H.,

I read an analysis recently that showed very little of what came to be known as the Bradley effect even existed when the theory was first adopted. Something about a gun rights initiative causing a tremendously high rural turnout in conjunction with some fairly absurd advance polling extrapolations.

By AmVet

October 8, 2008 4:37 PM | Link to this

The endless summer of neo-con misery has turned in the autumn of their political lives.

Stick a fork in these fake conservatives. They are done…

WASHINGTON (CNN) — In the face of an economy in crisis and a deeply unpopular president, some analysts believe the situation is ripe to give Democrats a 60-seat filibuster-proof majority in the Senate in November.

It’s “the perfect storm,” said Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report. “You’ve got Republican voters angry at Republicans, many Americans just petrified about the future…wanting change. And right now change appears to be coming in the form of Democrats.”

Of the 35 Senate seats on the line this year, 23 are held by Republicans. Five Republican senators are retiring: Pete Domenici of New Mexico, Wayne Allard of Colorado, John Warner of Virginia, Larry Craig of Idaho and Chuck Hagel of Nebraska.

Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, said Democrats have a good shot at reaching a 60-seat majority in November, a possibility he all but ruled out earlier this year.

“The fundamentals of this election year could not be more Democratic,” Sabato said. “You’ve got a terrible economy, a deeply unpopular president and an unpopular war. You put those elements together and it’s going to produce a Democratic victory. … The only question is, what size?”

A recent CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey found that Americans blame Republicans by a 2 to 1 ratio over Democrats for the financial meltdown.

Forty-seven percent of those questioned found Republicans more responsible for the problems facing the financial institutions; 24 percent said Democrats were more responsible.

By GreenJeans

October 8, 2008 4:59 PM | Link to this

“Joe Six-Packs of the world, UNITE!!”

Funny. When Gov. Palin pulled out that jaw-dropping nonsense last week, my thoughts settled on our current Johnny Scotchbox and how we sorely need to aim higher this time around.

Unfortunately, I’m afraid neither of the arrows in our quiver will shoot straight or true enough to hit the bullseye.

By sunshine and thunder

October 8, 2008 4:59 PM | Link to this

Barney Frank (D) plays the race card: It’s not my fawlt!!

By @@

October 8, 2008 5:11 PM | Link to this

And @@ has it right — McCain cannot separate himself from the worst president ever.

I knew that would make your day AmVet. The problem you’ve always had is that YOU DON’T READ. Every conservative on this board, with the exception of Dusty, whom I greatly admire, had said Bush is not a fiscal conservative.

I stand firmly with him on the issue of national defense. We will never know what George Bush could have accomplished had he not been distracted by the events of 9/11 which have greatly contributed to our economic downturn.

I watched a PBS program, “Bush’s War” the other night. What I saw was a bunch of insider participants who, AFTER THE FACT, proclaimed great knowledge of what went wrong with the intelligence that led up to the war.

I’m sorry, but when someone believes strongly enough, the value of their principles should outweigh their job security. They failed the test, and that includes Colin Powell.

McCain could not distance himself because of the liberal’s insistence that he WAS Bush when in reality he wasn’t. McCain may have chosen not to distance himself out of respect for a man (GWB) who was doing the best he could under difficult circumstances. Bush’s circumstances may have caused McCain to reflect on his time in a POW camp with compassion.

Vote for Nader, AmVet. Stand firmly on your principles. I voted for John McCain in support of his.

By CherokeeDave

October 9, 2008 9:18 AM | Link to this

JB: I don’t know what Kool-Aid office watering hole you drink from but Zogby and Rasmussan put it at less than 3% and please remember,only the lefty mainstream media (like yourself) push the polls the last 3 months to try to move the silently majority your way. Hmmm as I recall, didn’t Kerry and Gore have an 8-10 point lead going down the home-stretch and didn’t the radical-Lefties like yourself have the races all but over and Hmmmm, didn’t BUSH WIN TWICE. It ain’t over ‘til the “grits are cooked and on the table on the morn’n of the 5th. :) Vote Smart, Right Vote and Vote Repulican (Go McPalin Go !)