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Saturday, August 30, 2008
McCain throws Hail Mary in first quarter
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
It sure has been interesting watching the reaction to John McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate. On the right, it has been greeted enthusiastically and even ecstatically. On the left, it has been greeted warmly as well, as evidence of desperation and poor judgment by McCain.
For the moment, the pick has at least succeeded in patching a McCain weakness by generating excitement among the base of his party. The Republican core likes — no, they love — Palin, and they are absolutely convinced that their own excitement will be echoed by excitement among independent and female voters.
I just don’t see it.
The biggest reason is the experience issue. With a younger presidential candidate, it wouldn’t matter as much, but McCain is 72. And while the GOP would like to counter that Palin is as experienced as Obama, I don’t think the general electorate is going to buy that.
Whatever you think about Obama, he has earned his prominence and the top spot on the national ticket by beating both the Clintons in a hard-fought primary battle. Palin, on the other hand, has been plucked from total obscurity with nothing to suggest she is conversant with national issues.
I also think it is easy to underestimate the importance of experience in the national media spotlight. The glare is unforgiving; it is not the place for on-the-job training, and as governor of Alaska you just don’t get exposure to it.
Then there’s the matter of Palin’s role in getting her former brother-in-law fired as a state trooper. I don’t know how that story will play out, but the fact that it still does have to play out — coming to light only in July, with an investigation still underway and depositions yet to be taken — suggests how half-baked the choice really was. A presidential candidate who was confident of his chances would not have put it all at risk with such a pick.
In her first national appearance, Palin placed herself in a line of succession that included Geraldine Ferraro. I think the comparison is accurate. Ferraro, a N.Y. congressman, was picked as a running mate by Walter Mondale in 1984 to try to generate excitement and draw attention to his flagging candidacy. It did, for a while. But when November came, Mondale lost by 18 percentage points.
I don’t expect a blowout like that by Obama. But I do think that as a executive-level decision, the choice of Palin reflects poorly on McCain. She has a great story and seems personable, and her positions on the issues excite the hard right. None of that makes her remotely qualified to be one step from the presidency.
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The destructive force of Hurricane Karl
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
“”The Republicans can’t seem to get a break with regards to August, when it comes to the weather,” says Karl Rove, noting the possibility that Hurricane Gustav may hit New Orleans just as the GOP convention opens.
As they board up their homes and scatter, I’m sure the people of the Gulf Coast are full of sympathy and concern for Karl.
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