Home > Jay Bookman > Archives > 2008 > June > 29 > Entry
DEL.ICIO.US“Too far” isn’t as far as it used to be
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
As AJC reporter Ariel Hart documents, MARTA train ridership is up 15 percent from a year ago. Toll traffic on Ga. 400 is down 5 percent from a year ago. Ridership on express bus systems is up 67 percent from a year ago. Nationwide, we drove 11 billion miles fewer in March than a year earlier.
And as The New York Times notes, $4 gasoline may be sending teen-age cruising the way of the hula hoop or phone-booth packing.
But the real transformation will come as a result to changes in our sense of geography, more specifically our sense of how far is “too far”. How far is too far to commute to work everyday? How far is too far to drive to go shopping or to the movie? That’s changing very quickly. It’s pretty astonishing, in fact.
That’s how energy-saving starts to become embedded in our economy. As our definition of “too far” changes, the way we arrange ourselves on the landscape will change with it. Commercial and residential development will cluster at rail and transit stations, not at highway exits. Metropolitan areas will become more compact and dense — real estate in outer suburbs is already falling in value much more quickly than in areas closer to the core. As we balk at driving long distances for goods and services, businesses will respond with smaller, more numerous stores.
A lot of those changes have been advocated by city planners and architects for years, to little or no effect. Oil at $140 a barrel has proved for more convincing.
Comments
By Bud Wiser
June 29, 2008 5:10 PM | Link to this
Oil will soon exceed $150 per barrel.
Wheat sells for about $8.95 per bushel. The Saudis have decided on January 8 of this year to quit growing wheat because of water usage. The Saudis plan to start import more wheat in 2009, becoming totally dependent on foreign imports by 2015.
The United States leads the world in wheat exports. In marketing year 2005/06, the U.S. produced 57 million metric tons of wheat. The American public used over 31 million metric tons (MMT) and 27.5 MMT was exported, this according to the United States Wheat Associates (USWA). check link: http://www.uswheat.org/overview
While the U.S. exports more wheat than any other country. Our market share in global trade is 24%, evidence that the U.S. wheat industry has strong competition. It would, however, have a catastrophic effect on the world market should we suddenly withhold all wheat from foreign buyers. (sound similar to an ‘oil shortage?’) Therefore, those in foreign lands that (i.e., Saudi Arabia) would like to continue eating on a regular basis would have to pony up. A lot of folks forced to choose between driving and walking can always walk. Those forced to choose between eating and not eating, well…….
I have a suggestion to GWB, and those pansy Democrats that seem to want to force us into importing ALL of our oil from the Middle East; wheat at $150 per bushel. That would make a lot of our farmers very happy if we could sell it for that. Maybe the Saudis can wash down all of their no-bun camelburgers with their oil. And for the rest of the world, line up at the grocery stores to buy your U.S. wheat; and the 409+ metric tons of wheat that were ‘donated’ worldwide last year (translation:free food) just became donated to the cause of free enterprise.
If the sand varmints think they can manipulate the U.S. and/or world economies by setting prices of oil, perhaps we can give them a real lesson in manipulation by using FOOD as our weapon of choice.
By Political Foreskin
June 29, 2008 5:47 PM | Link to this
This could be a gas bubble, and it will pass. We used to blog about gas. Now we’ll vent.
Things just dont change that fast. This is a gas bubble and we will see $2.50 per gallon again.
I simply dont believe what’s happening. China and India are not growing that fast. It’s gotta be all spec.
Everyone always said that the American Dream depended on cheap energy. Only cheap gas could power the American Economic Juggernaut. That was the first part of the equation and the most necessary part. So it’s over? I dont believe it.
By Abomi Nation
June 29, 2008 5:49 PM | Link to this
You are kind of dense Bud. Did it ever occur to you that the Saudis won’t need to grow their own food? Just who the Hell do you think is going to own all the US farmland? The Saudis are going to grow their food right here in the USA.
We will be eating surplus rice from China.
By dennis
June 29, 2008 5:51 PM | Link to this
I think that you are wrong. People will car pool or ride transit until they get tired of the inconvenince. Then they will find a way to afford to drive.
Convenience will over come cost every time.
It is worth noting that at every work place in the City or in the Burbs or Ex-urbs there are more parking places than there are employees and customers.
Also worthy of note is that there are more jobs, good jobs, outside the city than inside.
By @@
June 29, 2008 7:35 PM | Link to this
A Bomb of a Notion:
At best, the Saudis will lease the land. The cost to operate will be left to our discretion.
Water, harvest, storage, transport.
Bud Wiser’s plan could work.
As a conserveative I was doing so (conserving) before it became progressively fashionable.
How far is too far?
15 miles in minimal traffic.
I have friends that moved further out of the metro area in the last couple of years. One pays $500 a month in gas, the other two pay a household total of $1,200.00.
Take a lesser paying job closer to home and figure the savings in gas into your new salary.
By Bud Wiser
June 29, 2008 9:04 PM | Link to this
You are the dense one, Abomi. The Saudis already spend about 18% of their capital intake from oil just for imported food, and that is before they have ceased their own agricultural operations If we raise the price by a factor of 6 or so, that capital outlay will take considerably more of their income. You’ll probably say they’ll just raise the price of oil to counter it, but that will not work. Even the Arabs cannot eat oil. When the sheiks start losing some weight, they’ll see the reasoning behind what is happening, and some kind of accord will be reached. They do not own U.S. farmland yet, and a government check on who is buying could eliminate what you alluded to; no foreign owners of commercial farms, similar to what we already have in place for foreign ownership of our airlines, would do it. Also, strict controls of who exports wheat, and where.
Can you not really think these things out? Your flip little comments like eating surplus rice from China shows you to continually be looking at the prospect of imminent doom. Does China even have surplus rice? Do you know? Well, if it is a yes/no answer, you got lucky. But it comes because of they contaminated product they have been shipping. I saw already that the European food importers and regulatory authorities have been told to test Chinese rice imports at random to check that documentation is not fraudulent. Products already on sale in Europe which contain Chinese rice will also be spot-checked for contamination. That’s the message following the discovery of rice consignments containing an experimental genetically modified strain called Bt63. From 15 April, all rice imported from China into the European Union must be certified as free of Bt63. Were you aware of that? Does it matter? Do you ever let the facts get in the way of your position?
At least someone does their homework, and just doesn’t spout off crap-mouth opinions. You certainly don’t document one way or the other. You just rant. Never offer your own solution. Never offer even an original thought, just echo the rantings of the Daily Kos and Huffington Post. Why is it always with you libs what we cannot do as opposed to what we can do? I suppose that if negativism is your way of life, then that is what it is.
By ron
June 29, 2008 9:16 PM | Link to this
Up until the late nineties I frequently took weekend drives as far as 400 miles from home.As the price of gas increased my range decreased.By 2000 I was limiting to 250 miles.By 2004 I was down to 90 miles.This summer we have gone 24 miles away from home exactly once,and that was a semi necessary trip.The rest of the time we confine driving just to work.Six mile one way and groceries,also 6 miles.My gas expenditure in dollars is about the same per week,$30,as it was in the nineties even with severely reduced driving.
By GaLiberal
June 29, 2008 10:52 PM | Link to this
Bud Wiser@5:10 PM demonstrated why rednecks are running the state: The Saudis have decided on January 8 of this year to quit growing wheat because of water usage. The Saudis plan to start import more wheat in 2009, becoming totally dependent on foreign imports by 2015.
The United States leads the world in wheat exports. In marketing year 2005/06, the U.S. produced 57 million metric tons of wheat. Our market share in global trade is 24%. It would, however, have a catastrophic effect on the world market should we suddenly withhold all wheat from foreign buyers. (sound similar to an ‘oil shortage?’)
I have a suggestion to GWB, and those pansy Democrats that seem to want to force us into importing ALL of our oil from the Middle East; wheat at $150 per bushel. That would make a lot of our farmers very happy if we could sell it for that. Maybe the Saudis can wash down all of their no-bun camelburgers with their oil.
First, Bud, the US is not the ONLY producer of wheat. Canada and Australia are big wheat producers. What you don’t understand is that if we sell wheat at $150, they will just buy it from other suppliers at a lower price. The world market cannot support $150 for wheat. So your plan of wheat for oil is another example of GA’s failed educational system.
Second, wheat production is highly dependent on the weather. Too much rain, not enough rain, hail, tornado’s, pests, etc all can decimated the wheat crop. And you can’t sell what you don’t have. Unless you want to buy it from Canada. The Saudis have the oil and just have to pump it out of the ground.
Third, you are a white supremacist and that alone is enough to disqualify you from any intelligent discourse on the subject. So go put on your bed sheet and prance around with your redneck buddies.
When you vote Rethuglicon, you vote against your own best interests. And Bud Wiser is living (but brain-dead) proof.
By Bud Wiser
June 30, 2008 7:08 AM | Link to this
GaLiberal, you are a moron. You resort to name calling, and are the prototypical example of a small brain gone dead. I state facts, you state, “it can’t be done, it can’t be done” - - - the new liberal mantra.
You do not even know if I am white, so I guess you are the flaming racist by presumption. Typical.
By Bud Wiser
June 30, 2008 7:21 AM | Link to this
GaLiberal, you are a moron. You resort to name calling, and are the prototypical example of a small brain gone dead. I state facts, you state, “it can’t be done, it can’t be done” - - - the new liberal mantra.
You do not even know if I am white, so I guess you are the flaming racist by presumption. Typical.
By GodHatesTrash
June 30, 2008 7:23 AM | Link to this
The profound ignorance and arrogant stupidity of native Georgians is world renowned.
If farmers could get $150 a bushel for their wheat, they would get it. As it is, they get $9, because that’s what the market says it’s worth.
By hillbilly ragger
June 30, 2008 8:06 AM | Link to this
To try to answer your question, Jay (which, per usual, nobody seems interested in doing), I think it’s “not as far as it used to be.”
You can’t really draw a line that is applicable to everyone, but I do think that there’s been a lot of soul searching going on. If there’s a job offer out there that entails a longer commute, I suspect most folks will think long and hard, and will do the rough cost-benefit analysis, before taking it.
Two or three years ago, the primary consideration about a longer commute (at least in my experience) was what the additional time on the road was worth to a person.
Now, it’s as much if not more about the cold, hard cash you have to pony up, even if you are driving something fairly fuel-efficient.
By Observer
June 30, 2008 8:10 AM | Link to this
GaLiberal - It’s interesting that you mention the Saudis have the oil in the ground and can simply pump it out thus maintaining their control on the world oil market regardless of weather.
We have more oil in the ground than the Saudis by most geological estimates. Hey, here’s an idea - why don’t WE pump it out of the ground and control the world market? Because liberals like you won’t let us, that’s why. Enjoy the price of gas. It’s your fault.
By hillbilly ragger
June 30, 2008 8:16 AM | Link to this
Observer, kindy provide a cite for your claim that “We have more oil in the ground than the Saudis.”
And if you’re including crap sources like shale oil, go to the corner, put on the dunce cap, and wait until I tell you it’s ok to come back to class.
By WFC
June 30, 2008 8:21 AM | Link to this
Now, wait a minute! Bud Wiser is on to something. He just didn’t take the logic quite far enough.
If there is one thing that the USA does better than anyone else, it’s producing food. Let’s try a new strategy: thinking in terms longer than the next dividend period… say 10-20 years. Here’s the plan:
We pour our resources into food production technology. Goal: to produce enough food to feed the entire world. NASA or Manhatten Project type effort.
For 10-20 years sell the food cheap, even give it away in some cases. Goal: make the world depend on U.S. food. Everybody loves us! Many economies around the world ignore agriculture and turn into “information cultures.”
In 2018, drop the hammer. Arbitrarily raise the price of our food worldwide. Every social revolution in world history began with food riots (Russia 1917, France 1789, etc.) and so it would be in 2018… pro-America revolutions to get the food supply turned back on. People need to eat A WHOLE LOT MORE than they need computers or cars. That’s NOT going to change.
This is basically what the oil producing nations have doone to us. Learn from history!
By George Hussein Washington
June 30, 2008 8:24 AM | Link to this
The whole country is in a period of transition from cheap abundant energy to expensive somewhat less abundant energy….Those who git in front of this transition will profit, while those following will pay higher prices…..Of course, no one knows exactly what those changes will amount to in the near term….At some point, George Hussein Washington predicts the neighborhood mom&pop grocery store will return, most likely in the form of a transformed mini-mansion in suburbia, and perhaps as a transformed condo or townhouse in town. The key will be population density within walking distance of the store…maybe biking distance, but I cannot see granny and gramps biking, or the obese one third of our population…Locally grown and sold food will be a big part of mom and pop’s offerings, along with the usual fare of canned and dry goods…gone will be the jit (just in time) fruits and veggies flown in from halfway around the country and world….or drivin’ more than ~100 miles. I wouldn’t bet my 401K on mom$pop opening anytime soon….The overall trend will be of a declining american lifestyle, not just because we are bad greedy people, which we are, but because the rest of the world will be consuming more and more of their own production, thus selling less and less to us for freshly printed green paper….of course, the transition will be much faster if the clowns in the federal reserve completely destroy the value of the dollar on foreign exchange markets…George has some bets on that happening….and some bets on the price of oil continuing to rise…and some bets the stock market will continue to decline….George may have a gambling problem…
By hillbilly ragger
June 30, 2008 8:28 AM | Link to this
Being that it’s the last day of June, I nominate Bud Wiser’s @ 7.08 as Unintentionally Hilarious Post of the Month.
“GaLiberal, you are a moron. You resort to name calling.”
Take a bow, Bud!
By King of Beers
June 30, 2008 8:29 AM | Link to this
Beer was once my beverage of choice. I enjoyed sipping on a cool one to help ease the aches and pains after a hard day’s work. Nowadays it’s wine. Just can’t afford a brew any more. Even the cheap brews — the Budweiser and Pabst — are not cheap any more. Ever since grain prices went through the roof, beer has been out of my reach. Why shucks, it costs less to buy a gallon of gasoline than it does to buy a 6-pack of PBR. That just ain’t right. So, nowadays I take my white wine and add a little yellow food coloring and pour it in a frosted mug when I’m out in public. After all, a man’s got an image to uphold. I’m also working on fake suds to add to my fake beer to give it that finishing touch. So far, the suds are easy to make with the vinegar and baking soda trick that I learned from my son’s science teacher but they don’t last very long and they leave a real bad after-taste. I’ll keep working on it though because I sure can’t afford to do anything else, not with gas prices the way they are.
By Observer
June 30, 2008 8:45 AM | Link to this
Hillbilly Moron - If you “Google” the search string, “Oil estimates for Alaska north slope” the first result will be the US Geological Survey and then a page of alternates.
Unless you’ve been living under a rock somewhere (which apparently you have) the oil buried beneath American soil is not in debate. Whether or not to drill for it is.
Now, I’ve got a suggestion for what you can do with your dunce cap but it will require a visit to a proctologist when you’re done.
By hillbilly ragger
June 30, 2008 8:54 AM | Link to this
Provide a cite to support your claim or put on the dunce cap, Observer. Telling me to google something ain’t gonna cut it.
By hillbilly ragger
June 30, 2008 9:14 AM | Link to this
Wow, Observer, you sure got quiet when I called you on your BS.
When you’re in a hole you really should stop digging. Now you’re claiming that the freekin’ Alaska oil reserves are greater than Saudis?
Well, since you’re too lazy to look this stuff up yourself, I’ll do it. Here’s BP’s report. Looks like Saudi Arabia has us beat, 264 to 29 billion barrels of known oil reserves.
Unless you think BP is some crypto-secret Terra-lovin’ Isaaaaamo-fascist liberal organization, and that’s your story and you’re sticking to it, maybe you should retain some semblance of credibility and admit that you pulled your “fact” about our oil reserves dwarfing that of the Saudis out of your butt.
How about it, Observer? Man enough to admit you were wrong? or are you a true Bushie, and unable to do even that?
By Tango Hotel
July 1, 2008 10:29 AM | Link to this
Jay makes some excellent points about changing our perspective on distance. I lived in Europe in the 1980s and 90s and the price of petrol was already high, over $4 a gallon. Most folks lived in smaller apartment type dwellings or row houses, they used readily available public transportation (busses, trains, etc.), they car pooled. Families had one car and used it as necessary not to joy ride or run to the store 3 or 4 times a day.
The population density of Europe is about 8 times the average population density in the United States. We might just have to give up a little bit of our 18” of personal space and live a little closer. The only way to make mass transit work is when it supports a greater population density than we currently have in most suburban areas. More people living in a smaller area. I like having a 2000+ square foot home and a quarter acre lot, 20 miles from work, but I may not be able to afford it in the long run.
By Tango Hotel
July 1, 2008 10:42 AM | Link to this
Please see http://www.radford.edu/~wkovarik/oil/ for another perspective on world oil reserves.
By rc
July 1, 2008 10:45 AM | Link to this
More HOT AIR from Bookman! He is clueless