Home > Jay Bookman > Archives > 2008 > June > 24 > Entry
Can you predict the electoral college?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
According to the latest polls, Barack Obama and John McCain are tied in Indiana, a deep-red state that George Bush won by more than 60 percent in 2004. In fact, Obama is doing quite well in a lot of the latest state polls — up by 9 in Michigan, up in Pennsylvania, up or tied in Ohio, up in some polls in Florida, down in others.
My point isn’t to highlight good news for Obama — well, it isn’t my ONLY point. I also want to announce that we’re putting together a contest for this election season, a political version of the NCAA’s March Madness, that will probably be run through this blog.
We’ll give you a map and ask you to predict which candidate will carry each of the 50 states, and we’ll probably use the final national popular vote to break any ties. (However, we could also use the final voting percentage in Georgia — we’re still working out the details).
Will McCain carry New Mexico but lose Colorado? Is Obama strong enough to carry the upper Midwest? Which way will Florida swing?
For all of you political experts out there, it’ll be a chance to strut your stuff.




DEL.ICIO.US


Comments
By TW
June 24, 2008 5:01 PM | Link to this
Don’t know which one’s won’t go for Obama, but rest assured they’ll stick out on the map like a herpes flare-up. Apparently, there no cure for ignorance either…
By Klute
June 24, 2008 5:18 PM | Link to this
Great idea for a contest, Jay! What will first prize be? A fishing pole? Oh, please let it be a fishing pole, sir!
By Hillbilly Deluxe
June 24, 2008 5:38 PM | Link to this
No I can’t predict the Electoral College.
By Harry Wills
June 24, 2008 5:41 PM | Link to this
Second Prize? A set of steak knives? Oh please, Jay, let the second prize be a set of steak knives.
By Taxpayer
June 24, 2008 5:49 PM | Link to this
I cannot. I would however like to see you and Wooten go head-to-head. How ‘bout it?
By JAY BOOKMAN
June 24, 2008 5:56 PM | Link to this
I’ll surely be posting an entry, but I can’t speak for my esteemed colleague.
By Politics Aside
June 24, 2008 6:09 PM | Link to this
The third prize? How about the third place finisher gets forced to listen to the entire Democratic National Convention from start to finish on a CD boxed set of the proceedings? Oh please let the third place prize be being forced to listen to the entire Democratic national Convention from start to finish on a CD boxed set of the proceedings!!
By Abomi Nation
June 24, 2008 6:31 PM | Link to this
Jim Wooten? Poor guy thinks Jimmy Carter is facing Ronald Reagan in the next election.
Forth prize? How about A James Dobson/Focus on the Family “Shower with your Son Instruction Video?”
By Taxpayer
June 24, 2008 6:32 PM | Link to this
I may not participate directly in the challenge. I could have some spare time though to hang around and closely scrutinize those that were clearly undecided at the time that they cast their original vote. I would certainly rule out such a scenario in Florida, for Crist’s sake, but I have heard of stranger things happening in places like Illinois, dontcha know. Did I just say what I think I just said.
By GodHatesTrash
June 24, 2008 9:37 PM | Link to this
Wooten hasn’t been happy with the Democratic Party since he voted for Lester Maddox. The last Democrat he voted for for President?
George Corley Wallace.
By D-BOMB
June 25, 2008 8:08 AM | Link to this
OBAMA MAN DON’T NEED TO GO TO NO ELECTORAL COLLEGE!!! OBAMA ALREADY GOT ENOUGH SKILLZ AND SKOOL TO BE THE BEST PRESIDENT EVER!!! AND YALL CANT DO NOTHING ABOUT IT HATERS!!!!! NONE YALL!!!!
By Grandfather
June 25, 2008 8:16 AM | Link to this
Hey Abomi nation….how do you spell fourth???? Yep southside Atlanta all over again.
By zeke
June 25, 2008 8:17 AM | Link to this
It would be absolutely great if McCain won ALL THE STATES!! That would show that the American people totally reject socialism, communism, populism, fascism, marxism and progessivism!! WHAT A WONDERFUL THING IF IT SHOULD HAPPEN!! However, the ignorance of the average voter probably will not let that happen!
By Politics Aside
June 25, 2008 8:23 AM | Link to this
The GOP’s electoral count. Prediction? Yeah, I gotta prediction: PAIN!
By Copyleft
June 25, 2008 8:29 AM | Link to this
Well, at least you’re doing your part, Zeke.
I would take a stab at predicting the popular vote outcomes in the various states, but it’s anybody’s guess how the electoral college will turn out. That’s pretty much the point of the EC—to override the will of the people for our own good.
By Politics Aside
June 25, 2008 9:00 AM | Link to this
Diebold will skew the electoral count for sure. The formula is ten Democratic votes equals 35 GOP votes and only 7 Democrat votes, cause diebold subtracts from the democratic total and multiplies it by three to the GOP tally. That’s how Saudis got all those no bid contracts and all our money.
Bush has given all our money to the Saudis for kick back money for Cheney’s golden parachute, and the bush twin’s dowry.
Revolution, people. We are so close to being the French in 1789. All we need is for Laura Bush to say “Let them eat yellow cake”, and it’s rocket tubes where the sun dont shine for the administration.
THe axis of evil is bush cheney and rove, and anyone making over ten million dollars a year, which should be taxed at 90 percent like during the Eisenhower years.
Ten million bucks is fair. Over that, we need that money pal. Education. Infrastructure. We’re a country not a private playground for the elite. Sorry, you dont like it, go live in Dubais, and dont let the door of justice hit you on your azz on the way out of town, pal.
I’m declaring the revolution starting now. Ballots, not bullets, is our battle cry.
Whose with me? Let’s do it in November. Not one vote for McCain!! Lets make the electoral map look like a negative of the Mondale/Reagan 1984 electoral map, with the blue as red, and the red as blue!!!!
Lets elect the red white and blue!!!!!
Camera to three wounded patriots, (mr. truth, mr. justice, and mr. american way) one with a head bandage, playing the fife, the other barely holding the flag, and the other pounding out a drum beat of justice, all limping along toward the front lines and the sound of the lobbyists!!!!!
Then show the little girlie richpeople running away to Dubais like little diapered baby bunnies and gay teletubby butbuddies.
bwaw haw
By WillM
June 25, 2008 9:02 AM | Link to this
Zeke: “That would show that the American people totally reject socialism, communism, populism, fascism, marxism and progessivism.”
Hey buddy, why stop at ‘progressivism’? Keep on going!
…running water, paved roads…..vaccinations, civilization, … we’ll stamp ‘em all out!
By Gsmith
June 25, 2008 9:06 AM | Link to this
There is no way to predict red and blue just yet. The 527’s are just getting cranked up. All we know right now is McCain is going to send that little one year guy off to war before he’s nine. MoveOn has a million of em. You think Kerry was an easy target? Opps…target was a bad choice. Jeremiah, Ayers and Reszko were the warm up acts. By the time this is over the liberals will really wish they had Hillary.
By James
June 25, 2008 9:19 AM | Link to this
Thankgoodness our founding fathers had the insight to set up the electoral college to prevent one section of the country or collections of states from determining who is president each time. That way at least during the campaign the candidates have to “pretend” at least to appeal to the whole country for their votes. By the way, the smaller states would have never agreed to come into the Union without it. For those of you who object to it and sanctimoniously want to go by just the “popular vote” then why does Vermont and California have the same number of senators? Same concept !
By GOPs got to go
June 25, 2008 9:20 AM | Link to this
Zeke apparently has herpes
By rightytighty
June 25, 2008 9:23 AM | Link to this
It may go all blue, in this day of blind rock star liberalism. What do you expect from a nation that can barely graduate half of its highschoolers? Obama’s Bob the Builder motto, “Yes we can”, fits that bill perfectly.
Of course, no one can actually be that liberal rock star the progressively corrupt media has anointed Obama. And when the people wake up to his double dealings behind closed doors, see NAFTA, Iraq and 20 yr church membership, his fall, along with the liberal ideals, will surely be as hard and fast has their rise. To my delight..
By GOPs got to go
June 25, 2008 9:25 AM | Link to this
Zeke has french kissed Gsmith, the herpes is spreading, luckily Obama has acyclovir.
By thogwummpy
June 25, 2008 9:38 AM | Link to this
I’m just relieved Jay didn’t denounce the Electoral College today! (removal of it, is one of the planks of Lefty politics). It’s a key element of Federalism’s balance that was meant as a power check. Removal of it, gives way too much power to the mindless mob (again, why the Left wants it gone)—-and putting too much power in the hands of “the people”…ignorant as they tend to be…threatens the republic. Those who yammer “but the POPULAR VOTE…” are folks that slept thru their high school civics class. Moreover, you’ve no constitutional right to vote for the President anyway. The E.C. protects us, and kudos to Jay for not exploiting this moment to rant against it as per the Stalinist playbook.
By GOPs got to go
June 25, 2008 9:40 AM | Link to this
Please do not even try to spew that Fox garbage again RT. We are not blind at all but you must be. Is it lonely out there in 29% land?
After 8 years of W, the cowboy wannabe, with put-up-dukes diplomacy around the world, Bob the Builder will have a mess to wake up to. In fact it may take 50 years or more to rebuild what W has done to our country and our reputation around the globe. And just think RT, you and your kind voted for that EEEDIOT!
Who ever the next president is, it can only be an improvement over the decider.
By Huac
June 25, 2008 9:48 AM | Link to this
I remember Mr. Bookman declaring, in print, that John Kerry would win 310 electoral votes. I think this idea for a contest is a good one, if it’s intended to make him feel better about his past. But pointless, isn’t it? The only time any of this counts is the first Tuesday in Novemeber. Ifthere’s one prediction that will come true, it’s that anything can, and most likeley will, happen before the election.
By LA
June 25, 2008 9:49 AM | Link to this
This is going to be soooooo easy! Just map the states with low IQ scores to be red, high IQ scores to be blue and there you have it.
By GodHatesTrash
June 25, 2008 11:29 AM | Link to this
LA definitely has the winning formula - the only challenge will be in figuring out where the cutoff score is - borderline retarded (like in Georgia), or profoundly retarded (Mississippi, Alabama).
By Ash
June 25, 2008 12:45 PM | Link to this
So when does this contest start?
By susan
June 25, 2008 12:49 PM | Link to this
The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do in the closely divided battleground states, but that we shouldn’t have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote — that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
The current winner-take-all rule (awarding all of a state’s electoral votes to the candidate who gets the most votes inside the state) is not in the U.S. Constitution. It is strictly a matter of state law. The winner-take-all rule was not the choice of the Founding Fathers, as indicated by the fact that the winner-take-all rule was used by only 3 states in the nation’s first presidential election in 1789. The fact that Maine and Nebraska currently award electoral votes by congressional district is another reminder that the Constitution left the matter of awarding electoral votes to the states. All the U.S. Constitution says is “Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors.” The U.S. Supreme Court has repeatedly characterized the authority of the states over the manner of awarding their electoral votes as “plenary” and “exclusive.” A federal constitutional amendment is not needed to change state laws.
Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided “battleground” states. Two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people are merely spectators to the presidential election.
Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.
The National Popular Vote bill has been approved by 19 legislative chambers across the country in small and large states (one house in Colorado, Arkansas, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and two houses in Maryland, Illinois, Hawaii, California, Rhode Island, and Vermont). It has been enacted into law in the large and small states across the country of Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These states have 50 (19%) of the 270 electoral votes needed to bring this legislation into effect.
See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com
By Copyleft
June 25, 2008 2:04 PM | Link to this
Thogwumpy: So I take it you have no problem with “activist judges” overriding the Will of the People on issues like gay marriage, right?
Since you have such disdain for democracy, after all….
By Gandalf, the Grey
June 25, 2008 3:43 PM | Link to this
I vote that gay judges sould be active and play in traffic! Aren’t you one of those Copywrong?