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Saturday, June 21, 2008
Obama up big; Democrats up even more
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
A new Newsweek poll puts Obama up by 15 points over McCain, 51-36. That number is going to fluctuate a lot, and the election is still four months away. But here’s the number that really should have Republicans worried, because it fluctuates a lot less, has implications for every race on the ballot and can affect campaigns for years to come:
“Obama’s current lead also reflects the large party-identification advantage the Democrats now enjoy — 55 percent of all voters call themselves Democrats or say they lean toward the party while just 36 percent call themselves Republicans or lean that way. Even as McCain seeks to gain voters by distancing himself from the unpopular Bush and emphasizing his maverick image, he is suffering from the GOP’s poor reputation among many voters.”
That’s almost a 20-point advantage in party ID. The poll didn’t break that number out by age, but I would guess the Democrats’ advantage is particularly large among younger voters. And once young people identify with a party, they tend to maintain that identification throughout their lives.
It may be a generation before the Republican Party returns to power nationally.
