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Sunday, March 30, 2008
Braves hopes hinge on aging arms
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Let’s begin with the presumption that this is a preview from behind home plate. As unbiased as the call of an umpire. It’s open season on pick-‘em, and this is how the Braves may look from the neutral zone, and we’ll start with pitching.
You realize, of course, that two starters are 40 or older. A third hasn’t thrown an official pitch in two years and two months. A fourth was just the sixth-best major-league prospect in the Eastern League before Detroit called him up from Erie. The fifth is sound and solid Tim Hudson, who can be counted on without fear of calamity.
Say this, though, for the bullpen: For the first time in a long time it is sound and solid and seasoned, much more attractive than in the springs when it featured a fat, unathletic wheezer as a closer. This bullpen has left-handed balance, has the highly esteemed Rafael Soriano and the cunning Australian, Peter Moylan. But can this offset any setback that might befall Tom Glavine, John Smoltz or Mike Hampton? Frankly, you hold your breath when any of them starts a game, as it goes with the nay-sayer.
Otherwise, Bobby Cox can fill out a lineup card that gives him a smile as broad as the Nile. And while on the subject, just how much longer will he be filling out the card? Not that the subject of his retirement hasn’t been chopped up and shredded enough already. First, he has no fixed game plan. He smiles a patient smile when the subject is in the air, and he has one conclusion: He’ll manage until he has had enough, which is not in view yet.
“I’m just going to do it until I get ready to quit,” he said. And my guess — which is strictly that — is that he’ll go three more years, then retire when he’s 70. At any rate, when he does go it will be a sad day in Atlanta.
The Braves haven’t had a gold-plated infield like this in this century. Yes, Edgar Renteria is gone, but Yunel Escobar gives them more range and a stronger arm at shortstop, and there will be no attrition at bat. Kelly Johnson improves by the moment at second base, and that is a strong upgrade. Nothing like an efficient midfield to improve every day in the life of a pitcher. At the corners, the main consideration is the extended health of Chipper Jones. He hasn’t had a full season — 150 games or more — since 2003, and his presence and his bat are essential to the health of this team. Cross your fingers. Mark Teixeira, could be MVP material.
You will find, I think, great comfort in the outfield of Matt Diaz, Mark Kotsay and Jeff Francoeur. Diaz is a hitting machine, and has ascended to the role of the everyday left fielder. Francoeur in no time will become an annual candidate for MVP of the year. Kotsay is no Andruw Jones, thank heaven, which means anywhere from 50 to 80 fewer strikeouts, and an improvement over a .222 batting average. He has given an impressive preview of his defensive highlights this spring, but whatever develops with him here will be a revelation to us all.
Pitching, of course, is the key to it all. Presumably, John Smoltz’s personal spring training regimen came off successfully, even though he opens the season on the mend. Glavine is not one who lights up the speed gun, but impresses with location and guile, and something is to be said for not having to commute between here and Flushing. Hampton, well, you hold your breath with every pitch. Presumption is that after all these vacant seasons the Braves should get something for their $13 million. As for Jair Jurrjens, Curaçao’s first pitching missionary to the major leagues, your guess is as good as mine.
Is this team good enough to take out the Mets? With their new American League defector Johan Santana, this is the team the Braves have to beat. But don’t overlook the fact that he lost 13 games last season, so no guarantee comes with him. For that matter, that says it all.
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