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Thursday, September 11, 2008
9/11: Atlanta radio may change due to ratings measurement changes, Belinda Skelton Croc lawsuit backlash (UPDATE)
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Before I get to the item at hand, I did want to point out my colleague Richard Eldredge’s Peach Buzz item on Belinda Skelton’s husband’s lawsuit against Croc shoes after her four-year son got the shoes caught in an escalator.
Given that her boss WSB-AM talker Neal Boortz has railed against frivolous lawsuits, some of his fans were not thrilled to see Skelton go after the manufacturer. (Your call on whether it’s frivolous or not). But Skelton notes that her son has suffered quite a bit and that she wants a warning placed on the shoe, that the money ($2 million) isn’t the focal point.
[I would have posted this earlier but was in flight. Anyway, i got this note from Boortz Thursday morning: :”My main point on these lawsuits is that we need a loser pays system. I do believe that if Belinda’s case doesn’t settle, and if it goes to trial and Crocs wins … Belinda should be responsible for their attorney’s fees.”:]
Anyway, here’s the main point of this blog entry: Atlanta radio may change significantly in the next year or two thanks to a major change in the way Arbitron tracks listening.
For decades, Arbitron measured ratings through paper diaries. They’d call you, ask you if you can track your listening for a week. You do so in 15 minute increments. .
But there are flaws to this system. People will sometimes convey loyalty to certain stations and indicate more listening than they actually do. They also don’t track as many stations as they actually listen. And there’s month to month volatility in certain demographics that are hard to reach, especially 18 to 34 year olds. Plus, since the valid ratings only come out once a quarter, it’s hard for stations to know what’s going on for weeks at a time.
So now Atlanta is about to switch to people meters (right). They look like little pagers but track actually listening. Some cities have already switched to this system, including Houston and Philadelphia. The early evidence shows that people don’t listen to as much radio as they claim in paper diaries. Instead of 19 hours a week, it’s more like 14 hours a week. Plus, people listen to about twice as many stations as they claim.
The people meter, for its flaws, have several advantages:
-Obviously, it’s more accurate than paper diaries since it’s real listening. There will be fewer unexplained fluctuations.
-With 1,335 or so people using a people meter at any one time in Atlanta, 112,140 days are tracked every quarter compared to 27,699 for diaries. That again means more accuracy for advertisers to judge where to advertise.
-Radio stations will get more information quicker so they can react faster, too. Monthly ratings will soon be available, rather than quarterly ratings.
-Arbitron is now reaching cel-phone only households. That’s a good thing for accuracy since more and more people don’t have land lines anymore.
And here are some conclusions so far:
-Some “ethnic” stations suffer. And so do those that rely on “time spent listening” vs. “cume.” In other words, stations that rely on fewer listeners who spend more time with the station might get hurt while stations that focus on ‘broad reach” do better. This might impact the likes of Praise and Viva, which have fewer, more loyal listeners vs. the Beat or B98.5, which have broader reach. Smooth jazz suffers quite a bit and many other cities have dumped the format in recent months. Some minority stations in New York City have grouped together to try to get the FCC to investigate the people meter. Arbitron defends the methodology, noting its greater accuracy and that the weighting is the same.
-Rock tends to do better. That could help the likes of Dave, Project, Rock 100.5 and the River. Oldies does better, too, which may be why it came back a few months ago at 106.7.
-There has been an impression morning radio draws more listeners. PPMs show that’s not necessarily the case, that listening is more consistent throughout the day.
We’ve already had quite a volatile year in radio since late 2007. With a slow economy, budget cuts and this new measurement system, the changes are likely to continue.
